What is going everyone!
Andrew Erickson here, hoping to help you on your DraftKings daily fantasy football lineups for Week 13 of the NFL season. I will be going through all the Sunday early games, offering my expert analysis on which players to have in your lineups.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (+3, 43.5)
For the Chiefs, it is very difficult to trust any of their players in your daily lineups. RB Kareem Hunt at $6,900 has been struggling and will be facing off against the Jets who have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to the RB over the last four weeks. The only player on the Chiefs worth having in your lineups is WR Tyreek Hill at $6,700. Solely based on the fact that he averages 20.9 fantasy points on the road and is a player with great upside, perfect for daily. TE Travis Kelce at $7,000 is not worth paying up for with QB Alex Smith at $5,900 struggling. The matchup dictates the same as the Jets have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to the TE over the last four weeks.
But for the Jets, I really like a lot of these players. A great way to build a lineup is to start with a double stack to maximize your points and limit outcomes. QB Josh McCown at $5,500 stacked with WR Robby Anderson at $6,300 and WR Jermaine Kearse at $4,300 could be great. They are all coming off a great performance last week and the Chiefs have allowed the 15th most fantasy points to WRs over the last four weeks. Not to mention, the Chiefs gave up running lanes to Tyrod Taylor, so McCown a scrambling QB, could pick up ground yardage as well. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins at $4,000 is also a nice addition, if you are not in love with the Jets offense as a whole. He was targeted in the end zone last week, but dropped a TD. And do not forget about the Jets D/ST at $2,500! The Chiefs have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to D/STs over the last two weeks.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3, 41)
For this game, that has the lowest under/over of the week, the fantasy players are a little more scarce. The big name from the Bears side is RB Jordan Howard at $6,500 which many people will be chasing against the defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the RB this season. However, over the past four weeks, the 49ers have allowed the 11th fewest points to the RB. WR Dontrelle Inman at $3,900 is another cheap buy that could be useful as the number one receiver on the Bears, but being that the 49ers have allowed he fourth fewest fantasy points to the WR over the last two weeks, he can be avoided most likely.
For the 49ers the offense will be looking a little different this week with QB Jimmy Garoppolo at $5,100 starting. The Bears rank third best on the season against the QB, but over the last four weeks have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to the QB position. In tournament play Garoppolo is a nice low ownership target at a cheap price. If you decide to go the Garoppolo route than you best be stacking him with WR Marquise Goodwin $4,000 and WR Louis Murphy $3,000! The Bears have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to the WR over the last four weeks! The 49ers D/ST at $2,600 is a great play this week. Cheap and should be effective against the Bears limited offense.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9, 48.5)
If you ever wonder which weeks, you need to pay up for Patriots players…this is definitely one of those weeks. The Patriots have owned the Bills in Buffalo, so this is a week that paying up for QB Tom Brady at $7,800 and TE Rob Gronkowski at $7,300 make sense. To add to the Patriots dominate offense for Week 13, you can easily sprinkle RB Dion Lewis at $5,500 or RB Rex Burkhead at $5,000. They are more expensive then they have been in the past, but they should still get a solid ROI against the worst team against the RB over the past four weeks. And always the Patriots D/ST at $3,300 is solid. They have scored at least nine fantasy points in four straight games.
For the Bills, it may slim pickings, on offense. The Patriots defense has been playing at a very high level over the last four weeks. Fifth fewest points versus QB/RB, 12th fewest versus WR, and fourth fewest against the TE over the last four weeks. So despite the green matchups that will appear throughout DraftKings, I would recommend avoiding all Bills players in daily lineups. There is just not much upside that I like and there are much better options.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (+2, 40)
Cheap Alert! When I saw the prices for the Denver WRs, man I was shocked. WR Demaryius Thomas at $5,300 and WR Emmanuel Sanders at $4,900 in a matchup against the Dolphins who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to the WR over the past four weeks? Give me that all day. I will stack them all day with the cheap-as-dirt QB Trevor Siemian at $4,800 as he faces the defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the QB over the last four weeks. Not to mention TE Julius Thomas at $3,500 as the Dolphins have also allowed the most fantasy points to the TE over the last four weeks. RB Devontae Booker at $4,100 is also a cheap RB that has seen an increase in volume and the Dolphins have allowed the third most fantasy points to the RB over the last four weeks. Ride those Broncos!
For the Dolphins, cornerback Aqib Talib will be missing the game so there is an opportunity for WR DeVante Parker at $4,500. RB Kenyan Drake at $4,900 is also a nice play as the Broncos defense has been gashed lately against the run allowing the second most fantasy points to the RB position over the last four weeks.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 43)
WR DeAndre Hopkins at $7,300 seems so low considering the Titans have been terrible against the WR over the last four weeks allowing the ninth most fantasy points to the position. I like Hopkins much more than RB Lamar Miller at $6,000. The Titans have been better against the run lately allowing the 15th fewest fantasy points to the position. HOU D/ST at $2,400 is another cheap option, as the Titans have been very turnover happy.
Going to the Titans offense, the RBs are very hard to trust. Houston has a great run defense and with RB DeMarco Murrray at $5,600 and RB Derrick Henry at $4,700 constantly butting heads with carries, it is hard to see which one can emerge. WR Rishard Matthews is out once again, so you can try to chase WR Corey Davis at $5,100 but he has struggled to build chemistry with QB Marcus Mariota at $6,200. With QB Tom Savage at $4,500 on the other side, the Titans D/ST at $3,400 is also an option. A divisional matchup this game looks to be close, so it is hard to get excited about its fantasy implications.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40)
This is a week for the Jaguars to have success on offense. Despite the fact that the Colts have been better lately as over the last four weeks they rank sixth best against QBs, 12th best against RBs and 8th best against WRs there are still some starters on Jacksonville. WR Marqise Lee at $5,200 is a nice play and WR Dede Westbrook at $4,200 for that boom potential. I also expect a heavy dose of RB Leonard Fournette at $7,800 after Bortles threw an awful interception last week. Over the last two weeks the Colts have allowed the 1oth most fantasy points to the RB position. Jaguars DST at $4,500 always in play as well.
For the Colts? Well, TE Jack Doyle at $5,200 is about it for any player I would have any confidence in playing. And Colts D/ST at $2,700 because well…Blake Bortles.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43.5)
Neither QB for me in this game, so let’s look at the skill players. RB Alex Collins at $4,500 I love in this spot. The Lions got run all over last week, by the Vikings and over the past four weeks have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position.
For the Lions offense, even RB Theo Riddick at $3,400 drawing the start, the Ravens have allowed the least amount of receptions to the RB position over the entire season. For WR Golden Tate at $6,100 and WR Marvin Jones at $6,000 they will have low ownership because of the matchup. That being said because Stafford will have a high-volume day throwing the ball they could be nice tournament plays.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47)
For the Vikings, roll with QB Case Keenum at $6,000, WR Adam Thielen at $7,500, WR Stefon Diggs at $6,200, and RB Latavius Murray at $5,200. Keenum has been on fire and the Falcons have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to the QB over the last four weeks. Pair that with the Falcons secondary missing key pieces make the Keenum stack a must for Week 13. Murray is also a nice volume play at a relatively low price.
For the Falcons, this seems like a trap. I am not chasing the points with WR Julio Jones at $8,600. Too expensive with all the WR depth out there this week. No need to pay up. QB Matt Ryan at $6,400 also seems like a risky play against the tough Vikings defense.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
I love this game for fantasy! Two awful defenses pinned against each other with no end in sight for the offenses. For the Packers I love stacking QB Brett Hundley at $5,100 with WR Davante Adams at $6,500 and WR Randall Cobb at $3,900. The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to the WR position over the last four weeks. RB Jamaal Williams at $4,700 is also a nice play against the Buccaneers defense that got shredded on the ground last week. Start your Packers!
For the Buccaneers, this could be the game that WR Mike Evans at $7,100 finally shows up in. The Packers are banged up in the secondary and QB Jameis Winston at $5,600 will be returning for Tampa Bay. The Packers have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the QB over the last four weeks.