What is going everyone! Andrew Erickson here, hoping to help you on your DraftKings daily fantasy football lineups for Week 14 of the NFL season. I will be going through all the Sunday early and afternoon games, offering my expert analysis on which players to have in your lineups.
Pro tip: Chase The Double Stack
Winning in DraftKings tournaments is all about maximizing potential and limiting possible outcomes. For example if you have a players playing in all different games, you need all of those games to be higher scoring and have your players be the featured offensive players. However, when you introduce the double stack, you essentially make it so you just need you QB to play well, which coincides with his receivers having high-level production. The less outcomes you need to happen the better off you are!
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)
The lowest under/over of the week is our first game on the list. I will start with the Bears offense. Of this offense the only players that I would throw in my lineups would be RB Jordan Howard at $5,400 and WR Dontrelle Innman at $4,000. The Bengals defense has allowed the 29th most fantasy points to RBs over the past six weeks and will be without starting corners Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick. Howard is a sure volume play after struggling the last two weeks, but he is reasonable priced to be targeted.
For the Bengals offense, QB Andy Dalton at $5,400, WR A.J. Green at $7,300 and RB Giovani Bernard at $3,100 are definitely nice plays. Dalton in his career has total QBR of 120.9 against the NFC North, basically showing that he finds success against uncommon opponents. Chicago over the past six weeks have also allowed the 25th most fantasy points to the WR. The Bears have also allowed the 19th most fantasy points to the RB over the past six weeks, so Bernard is a must-play in daily. His price at $3,1oo as a featured back is absurd. He will most certainly surpass his ROI.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)
You cannot spell elite, without Eli. Or at least that is what the Giants think thrusting QB Eli Manning at $4,800 back into the starting role. Dallas has not been great against QBs lately allowing the fifth most fantasy points over the last four games. Combined with the fact that they also rank 31st and 23rd against the WR and TE respectively, Manning could be a nice play with WR Sterling Shepard at $5,300 and TE Evan Engram at $6,000. However it is important to note that Sean Lee is coming back for Dallas, that would vastly improve their defense, especially in the run game.
For the Cowboys, QB Dak Prescott at $5,600 needs to be played. I realize he has been on the #strugglebus lately, but played much better last week. The Giants defense is also just so bad across the board ranking allowing at least the 26th most fantasy points to the QB, WR, RB, and TE over the past six weeks. WR Dez Bryant at $5,900 is very cheap considering he will not be facing Janoris Jenkins who was put on IR earlier this week. RB Alfred Morris at $5,500 is coming off his best performance of the year, and I expect the Cowboys to utilize him to take pressure off Dak. TE Jason Witten at $4,700 is ol’reliable and is the player to target alongside Bryant if you decide to go with Prescott has your QB.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)
A divisional matchup against two familiar foes, this game has the highest under/over of the week. For the Raiders, QB Derek Carr at $6,400 is someone I am not targeting. He is the fifth highest priced QB this week, and with WR Amari Cooper at $5,800 coming back from injury he could be limited. In his career at Kansas City, Carr has thrown two touchdowns and one interception total in three games. However, I do really like WR Michael Crabtree at $6,700 as somebody to step up. Crabtree will have something to prove after being suspended last week. The matchup gets even better based on the fact that starting corner Marcus Peters will also be missing this game. The Chiefs have allowed the 20th most fantasy points to the WR over the last six weeks. RB Marshawn Lynch at $5,700 is another great lineup play, as he has been on fire lately, scoring 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. The Chiefs defense has been extremely vulnerable against the RB, allowing the 22nd most fantasy points to the RB, over the past six weeks.
Looking at the Chiefs offense, the switching of play calling, made a huge difference. QB Alex Smith at $6,500 and fellow TE Travis Kelce at $7,300 with WR Tyreek Hill at $7,100 exploded last week. We should see more of the same against the Raiders who have allowed the 25th most fantasy points to the QB, 19th most to the WR, and 27th most to the TE over the past six weeks. This is indeed a super-sized triple stack. But even with the matchup, I still will not be playing RB Kareem Hunt at $6,500. Too many better options this week and until we see improvement or more involvement, you cannot play him confidently.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)
A matchup between two NFC powerhouses, this game is interesting because they both have good offenses and good defenses. QB Case Keenum at $6,100 has been lights out especially on the road, where he is averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. His two big weapons WR Adam Thielen at $7,200 and WR Stefon Diggs at $5,800, should also produce in this game. The Panthers defense is stout across the board, but lately has been suspect against the WR. Allowing the 21st most fantasy points to the position over the past six weeks and the most over the last four weeks. That being said, RB Latavius Murray at $5,000 will be facing the number one run defense over the past six weeks, so I do not like his upside.
For the Panthers side of the offense, neither QB Cam Newton at $6,200 or any of the Panthers have a good matchup. The Vikings rank over the past six weeks, 10th versus QB, 7th versus RB, 10th versus WR, and 5th versus TE. WR Devin Funchess at $6,100 has been dealing with an injury and will get the Xavier Rhodes treatment, so leave him out this week. RB Christian McCafferty at $6,700 is a sneaky play. Low ownership projection because of the matchup, but because the Minnesota defense is so good, Newton may have to check it down. McCafferty also averages 19 plus fantasy points at home. Cam Newton is playable this week, reasons similar to McCafferty with low ownership being one of them. The Vikings gave up 30 plus fantasy points to the QB before this season on the road, so there is a chance that in a must-win situation Cam puts the team on his back.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)
Can the 0-13 Browns finally get the win? Well, if they do it will most likely been on the back of WR Josh Gordon at $5,500. Gordon played excellent last week and has the Packers who have allowed the 30th most fantasy points to the WR position over the past six weeks. Not to mention they also have allowed the 30th most fantasy points to the QB position making QB Deshone Kizer at $4,900 the cheap stack of the week!
Moving to the Packers offense, the Browns are suspect basically everywhere, but more specifically at the RB position. RB Jamaal Williams at $5,900 came through last week, but will lose carries to RB Aaron Jones at $4,700. WR Davante Adams at $6,500 however is a great play on the road where is has averaged 21 fantasy points per game.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 45)
Starting at the QB position, San Francisco 49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo at $5,500 is definitely in the QB consideration. He looked great last week, he is cheap, and the Texans have allowed a league worst average of 22 fantasy points to the QB over the last six weeks. The Texans have also allowed the 28th most fantasy points to WR and 30th most fantasy points to the TE over the last six weeks. That makes WR Marquise Goodwin at $5,100 and WR Trent Taylor at $3,300 your double stack targets. They combined for a total of 14 targets last week for over 190 yards! Considering no other player received more than five targets, they can be trusted in this matchup. Then at TE if you really want to go cheap, TE George Kittle at $2,700 has upside in a great matchup. He has more talent then Garrett Celek at $2,600 so despite the fact that snaps are favoring Celek, Kittle would be the guy I would choose. RB Carlos Hyde at $6,000 is someone I am not targeting because of the matchup. Texans over the last six weeks have been 10th best against the RB.
On the Houston side of the ball, RB Lamar Miller at $5,800 is someone I am also trying to avoid. The 49ers run defense 0ver the last six weeks has been very good allowing an average of less than 15 fantasy points to the RB. So despite the green 32 you see next to Miller’s name in DraftKings, he is somebody you should not be playing in your lineups. Instead if you are looking to go cheap at the RB position look for RB Andre Ellington at $3,600. He is going to see a ton of work in both the backfield and the slot with all the injuries to the Texans skill players. For the wide receiver, I am not targeting WR DeAndre Hopkins at $8,500 or WR Will Fuller V at $4,300. Hopkins is too expensive in a matchup that is not great. The 49ers defense has allowed the third fewest fantasy points to the WR over the last six weeks. However, the skill player I am targeting is TE Stephen Anderson at $3,200. He saw double digit targets last week and has a great matchup against the 49ers defense that has allowed the 28th most fantasy points to the TE over the past six weeks.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs (Pick, 46)
QB Matthew Stafford at $6,300 is going to play, but his injury is very concerning to a point where I am not confident in starting him. I am however confident in starting WR Golden Tate at $6,400 because I believe Stafford will be throwing more quick short passes to deal with his hand injury. The Buccaneers rank 26th worst against the WR over the past six weeks, so Tate is a nice play at a nice price.
For the Tampa Bay offense, QB Jameis Winston at $5,900, WR Mike Evans at $6,900, WR Desean Jackson at $4,400, and TE Cameron Brate at $4,100 are all part of a quadruple stack that could be great this week. The Lions over the past six weeks rank 29th worst versus QB, 16th worst versus WR, and 19th worst versus TE. Do not trust RB Doug Martin at $4,000 though despite his starter status. Martin has struggled and if he comes out slow, it is only a matter of time before the carries go back to RB Peyton Barber at $4,500 who has been the much more productive RB this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+3, 39.5)
The other lowest under/over of the week, this game is tough to get real excited about. With QB Nathan Peterman at $4,400 getting the start for the Bills, the only player worth starting is RB LeSean McCoy at $7,100. This is surely based on volume because even the matchup is not great as the Colts over the past six weeks have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to the RB position.
For the Colts offense, it is all about the running game. Over the past six weeks the Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to the RB position, setting up the stage for RB Frank Gore at $3,900 to have a productive outing. At his price he is an easy add to any lineup. TE Jack Doyle at $4,900 can also be played as the Bills have allowed the 17th most fantasy points to the TE over the past six weeks. Doyle gets a ton volume from QB Jacoby Brissett at $5,300.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)
The high-flying Jets offense that is averaging 25 points per game over their last three weeks, comes in to face a lowly Denver Broncos team that has but all given up in 2017. QB Josh McCown at $6,000, RB Matt Forte at $4,300, WR Robby Anderson at $6,500, WR Jermaine Kearse at $4,800 and Austin Seferian-Jenkins at $3,600 can all be played! The Broncos defense has been a shell of itself, allowing the 23rd most points to QB, 31st most to RB, and 32nd most to the TE over the past six weeks. They have only allowed the 9th most to the WR over the past six weeks, but the Jets receivers have been soo good, it is hard to not continue to ride them. However as a spoiler warning McCown has only surpassed the 17 point fantasy mark once on the road this season. Keep that in mind.
For the Broncos offense, well the matchup is great. The Jets have allowed the 31st most points to the QB, 23rd most to the WR, and 2oth most to the TE over the past six weeks. Should you start QB Trevor Siemian at $4,700? Yikes! I am going to lean no, just based on the fact that starting a QB that could get benched after a rocky start is never a good approach. However his wide receivers, play much better at home with WR Demaryius Thomas at $5,000 and WR Emmanuel Sanders at $4,700 averaging over 14 and 12.5 fantasy points per game in Denver. Avoid all Denver RBs however, the Jets over the past six weeks have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to the RB position.
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)
Start WR Larry Fitzgerald at $6,500. Larry the legend is money at home averaging 23 fantasy points per game versus 11 fantasy points per game on the road. For the rest of the Arizona offense TE Ricky Seals-Jones at $3,400 has some nice appeal with the Titans allowing the 25th most fantasy points to the TE over the past six weeks.
Moving to the Tennessee Titans side, QB Marcus Mariota at $5,800 has a favorable matchup, but has been far to inconsistent to trust. The Cardinals defense has played much better lately across the board making this a week I avoid as many Titans players as I can. The Cardinals defense over the past six weeks ranks 17th versus RB, fifth versus WR, and 14th versus TE.
Washington Redskins at L.A. Chargers (-6, 46.5)
QB Philip Rivers at $6,800 has been on fire lately, averaging over 25 fantasy points over his last three games. The Redskins however have been better over the last six weeks against the QB/WR positions allowing the 13th and 14th fewest fantasy points respectively. The Redskins have however been beat badly, by the RB and the TE. Washington ranks 28th versus the RB and 22nd versus the TE. This is the week to definitely pay up for RB Melvin Gordon at $7,800 and also utilize TE Hunter Henry at $4,600. WR Keenan Allen at $8,300 is also an attractive target has he has been unstoppable, but his price is on the rather heavy side.
For the Redskins, the real weakness is the run game. They have allowed the 25th most fantasy points to the RB position over the past six weeks making RB Samaje Perine at $5,600 a nice play. Besides that though, QB Kirk Cousins at $5,900 may have a tough day. The Chargers versus the QB/WR over the past six weeks rank 7th and 4th respectively.
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)
Believe in QB Russell Wilson at $6,200 even if you do not believe in his wide receivers. Wilson has never been cheaper than he has been this week, so this is where you need to cash in. Jacksonville is great against all the positions, but Wilson is a different player. I would not stack him with WR Doug Baldwin at $5,400 necessarily but perhaps either WR Tyler Lockett at $3,400 or WR Paul Richardson at $3,900. Then using TE Jimmy Graham at $5,000 to really cash in because neither Jalen Ramsey or A.J. Bouye will be covering him. RB Mike Davis at $3,700 is also a nice cheap RB play, because he is getting the work and the Jaguars rank 15th against the RB over the past six weeks.
For the Jaguars, I think that the wide receivers are a nice option, but everything else should be avoided. The Seahawks have allowed the 29th most fantasy points to the WR over the past six weeks, setting the stage for WR Marqise Lee at $5,500 and WR Dede Westbrook at $4,200.
Philadelphia Eagles at L.A. Rams (-1.5, 48)
The game of the week, the Rams offense has a difficult matchup at hand. Eagles defense over the past six weeks, has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions. RB Todd Gurley at $8,100 is always in play as an elite RB, but has limited upside. QB Jared Goff at $6,600 has traditionally struggled more in negative matchups, so this is one I am trying to avoid Rams players in.
For the Eagles offense, the Rams present a tough task for QB Carson Wentz at $7,100. They have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to the QB position over the past six weeks. However, the real opportunity lies with Eagles running backs specifically RB Jay Ajayi at $4,500. Ajayi has big play-ability and in this game he sees the Rams defense that has allowed the 23rd most fantasy points to the RB over the past six weeks.