What’s up everybody!? Andrew Erickson back again after a long offseason. Though I have been catching up on my sleep the NFL has just begin to heat up with the conclusion of the NFL Draft this past weekend. Finally after analyzing all these rookies in a bubble, we can now focus our attention on their landing spots.
For landing spots, I am looking for two things specifically; potential volume and offense surrounding them. I find that these two attributes are great projectors of success for rookies. Obviously it goes without saying that volume is key in fantasy football. This is particularly big at the running back position, where rookies flourish more than at any other spot. The offense is also very important because playing on a potent offense gives players more scoring opportunities and a higher ceiling. Just think Alvin Kamara with the Saints offense last year. If he had not been part of a dynamic offense like the Saints his production would have been drastically different. So taking those factors into consideration combined with the overall talent evaluation of the rookie I have compiled my Top 50 fantasy rookie dynasty rankings. One thing to note that even though it is dynasty, I am always trying to win-now. So even though wide receivers have longer careers than running backs, you’ll find in my rankings that I value rookie running backs much more than their aerial counterparts.
Five players that I think deserve some mentioning:
- RB Saquon Barkley (1) With zero competition in New York, I really like his landing spot. The Giants have done a lot to improve their offensive line adding Nate Solder through free agency and Will Hernandez through the draft. Barkley will be a three-down back and would not shock me if he finished Top 10 overall in fantasy across all formats.
2. RB Rashaad Penny (4) – Surprisingly taken in the first-round by the Seattle Seahawks, there is an opportunity for Penny to be a three-down back. The team has already come out and said they want him to fit that role, so I am buying Penny. Penny does need to improve on his pass-protection skills however, and yes that Seattle line does not project to be great. But Penny is good in space and is already the best running back on the roster.
3. RB Kerryon Johnson (8) – The Lions have a very underrated offensive line that has suffered very poor running back play that past few years. That being said in this year’s draft the Lions traded up to get Johnson in hopes of finally turning around their atrocious backfield. Keep in mind that the Detriot offense is going to have to put up a lot of points with the Matt Patricia “Bend but give up 500+ yards” defense.
4. WR Christian Kirk (12) – The slot master himself I really like Kirk’s long-term value in Arizona. He can learn under Larry Fitzgerald and take over when he retires. Additionally, he already has chemistry with future Arizona quarterback Josh Rosen. I think Kirk is going to be a very solid wide receiver in his league for a long time out of the slot. Maybe never a true number one, but I think he has great upside. Could see some massive garbage time in Arizona this season.
5. WR Dante Pettis (13) – The Jimmy Garoppolo led 49ers do not have the greatest depth at the wide receiver position, which is why landing Pettis is exciting. Pettis is a natural pass-catcher and can play both inside and outside the numbers. Another player I like in the long-term as he becomes Jimmy’s favorite target over the next ten years.