Every week, we will give three bets against the spread to monitor for that slate of NFL games: one we like (Bet It), one we love (Hammer It) and one we are staying away from (Don’t Touch).
Not having a great stretch, as I am winless over the last two weeks at 0-3-1. I came within a point on both losses last week, but a loss is a loss in Vegas.
Without further ado, here are the best and worst bets for NFL week 12.
Arizona Cardinals (+12.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
Do not get me wrong; the Chargers are really good and the Cardinals are equally bad. However, Los Angeles has not been above playing down to weaker opponents as evidenced by home losses to Denver and Tennessee and a narrow win over bottom-feeding San Francisco. I would pick the Chargers to win outright, but I think the Cardinals will keep it within 10.
Tennessee Titans (+6) over Houston Texans
Going with another underdog here. True, Tennessee just got smoked on the road by Indianapolis. That said, the Colts have something the Texans do not: an explosive offense. Despite the talent at quarterback, Houston has seven-straight wins largely due to great defense and scoring just enough to win. Of those seven wins, only two have come by double-digits. I like Tennessee to keep it close in a defensive shootout, even if Houston pulls out a narrow win.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Buffalo Bills
As those who read these pieces know, I hate betting matchups between bad teams. Both Jacksonville and Buffalo represent the oddities of the AFC: one beat the Jets by 31 and has a win at Minnesota, the other nearly beat top-dog Pittsburgh last week. Yet, their combined record is 6-14. On any given week, these sub-par squads can look more-than-functional, but who knows when they decide to do so? My instinct is whenever I see the Jaguars giving points I want to bet it, but the Bills are one of the opponents that will stop me.
–Sam Smith is the Managing Editor for Full Press Coverage Vikings and Deputy Editor for Full Press NFL. Like and Follow @samc_smith.