Raiders Opinion: The Possible End of the Carr Era

Don’t get it twisted, I don’t think Derek Carr getting traded would be bad for him. Much like his former teammates Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack, Carr deserves to be in an organization where he can thrive. He deserves to be on a team that won’t take him for granted or ask him to do too much. He deserves to around playmakers with a chance to make the playoffs. The Raiders do not appear to be that now and it would take a miracle to become that overnight.

A change of scenery might give Carr a new life. I could see him thriving in a role as a game manager for a very good team. I think RaiderNation fell in love with Carr because he was the closest thing to a franchise QB. We wanted him to be a gamechanger in the mold of Aaron Rodgers.

Perhaps, we should have seen him more in the mold Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. While both Brees and Wilson are elite, they’re elite with great talent and scheme around them. They also know their strengths and weaknesses because no one expected a whole lot from them early. They developed and play within themselves well. Carr on the other hand, has been developed into a gunslinger when he’s probably closer to a game manager. Still, a change of scenery might give Carr’s career new life.

Derek Carr’s isn’t the Raiders future.

Listen, I love D.C. My gamertag is StarttheCarr on Xbox. I have been on the bandwagon since dude busted onto the scene his rookie year. I went to Oxnard to see him compete live versus the Cowboys defense that year.

This past week, Carr threw three touchdowns, finally looked confident in Jon Gruden’s offense, and kept his team competitive versus the playoff contending Chiefs. Versus the Ravens, I enjoyed his poise and leadership as he finished a game he left for concussion protocol and an ankle injury.

Carr is the closest thing I have seen to a franchise QB for theSilver and Black. He just moved up to second all-time in passing yards behind Kenny Stabler after this week. I’ll always love Carr but I’m beginning to accept the inevitable.

Derek Carr is not the Raiders future. You do not have to be a football insider to know that. Whether the Raiders move on from Carr after this season or later, it appears No. 4’s days in Silver and Black are numbered.

Oakland has already seen Carr surrounded by adequate to solid receivers and playmakers. Look at tape from his rookie year and this season.Even last year and 2015 can be lumped into that sample size to an extent. Carris a good player but he wasn’t Gruden’s selection, he hasn’t proven to be elite and the Raiders might be able to get a good haul for him since they don’t have the talent build around him.

Carr is a solid to good QB

Mercury News’ Matt Schneidman wrote last week that Carr will probably get another season with Gruden. However, he said he doesn’t think Carr will revert to 2016 form. He also points out that Carr might not stay with the team into Vegas either.

NBC Bay Area’s Scott Bair said similar statements by agreeing with a fan who said Carr deserves another year or two with Gruden. Bair said it is hard to evaluate Carr with the inexperience at both tackle spots and the inconsistency at the skill positions.

Nonetheless, I would argue we know exactly who the 2014 second round pick out of Fresno St. is. Carr is a good quarterback who can thrive with talent around him and a scheme around his strengths. That’s what we saw in the lone playoff and MVP-caliber season in 2016. That’s the glimpses we get this season and years past.

Otherwise, he’s already been sacked 38 times this season. That’s more than any other season in his career. Of course, that isn’t all him as hi o line and playmakers around him have declined. The point is, the Raiders aren’t helping Carr thrive.

In four of the last seven games, Carr has thrown under 200 yards.He’s left the field in three games already. Sure, he’s gone seven games without an interception and completed 69 percent of his passes for the year but he’s also barely averaging over seven yards per attempt. That’s proof being an elite QB is a lot harder than just being an efficient passer who gets the ball out quickly.

PFF gives him a 69.5 overall grade which puts him in the above average range. He’s ranked as the 24th QB as of December 3. Football Outsider’s DYAR puts Carr at the No. 19 rating currently.. DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player’s cumulative value above or below a”replacement-level” alternative which is more evidence that Carr is closer to mediocre than he is elite.

The talent around Carr is lacking

See, if the Raiders were winning or showing glimpses of aconsistent offense this is a different conversation. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ offensive talent is currently at the bottom of the barrel and Oakland continues expecting different results with Carr at the helm and trash around him.

Carr is going to have to wait for the Raiders to sign or develop talent around him and he might be declining by the time the Raiders finally get that. This could change if Oakland gets elite talent in free agency or the draft.Nothing guarantees that though as the Raiders additional picks could fall into the twenties and they didn’t hit on any big free agents last year. Not to mention, Oakland might use those first round picks on defensive players. Either way, it’s hard to expect a rookie to turn around an offense or defense,especially that late.

Of course, Carr might also benefit from some consistency at OC and HC. However, Carr might be too damaged already. We’ve already seen Carr with multiple offensive coordinator and three head coaches. He is a more than competent QB which is a bargain considering we got him in the second round.

Regardless, D.C. doesn’t appear to be the one to make everyone around him better than they are. We saw that earlier in the year with interceptions in crucial moments. We see that in glimpses with his ball placement being allover the place and his pocket presence including happy feet. Carr tries to do too much in crucial situations and other times he doesn’t take enough risks when he continuously dumps the ball off quickly.

Here’s evidence Carr regresses under pressures and settles for dumpoffs too. Versus the Ravens, Derek joined his brother as one of the only QBs to be sacked three times in a row. Last year, he struggled versus pressure too. When under pressure, Carr put forth a 40.8 passer rating in 2017. He finished 2016 with a 70.0 passer rating under pressure, good enough for 18th among quarterbacks too.

Before this week versus the Chiefs, Carr had only ranked higher than 20th in next generation aggression rating once in any of the last six weeks the Raiders played. His highest aggressiveness rating came Week 12 against the Ravens at 23.5 percent, placing him fourth in the league. His lowest aggressiveness rating came Week 6 against the Seahawks, when his 3.2-percent aggressiveness rating landed him 28th in the league, per the Bay Area News Group. Aggression measures when QBs throw to receivers with defenders less than a yard away. Further, he fielded an accuracy percentage of just 37.1 percent on tight-window throws which ranked him 29th in 2017 per PFF.

The point is, we’ve seen the good and the bad of Carr. Even if you believe Derek Carr can still develop into a great player, you have to admit that it might not happen in Oakland due to the talent around him. He is really just wasting in Oakland as they might still be a few seasons away from being good.

Carr’s value

At this point, it’s unfair for the Raiders to expect wins because of Carr at QB and they will probably plan accordingly. Not to mention, Gruden moving Carr will buy him some time for his rebuild. Gruden can easily prolong results as long as he is developing a QB. That is much harder when your playing with a vet QB on a triple-digit contract.

While I can’t completely write off my QB becoming elite and leading the Silver and Black to greatness, I can say that I am no longer giving him the benefit of the doubt as the franchise QB. I don’t think Gruden is either. I fully expect Gruden to draft or sign a QB he believes will compete and push Carr for the starting position next year.

Carr is the 19th highest paid athlete this year according to Forbes. The team’s production isn’t matching that bill and Carr might face the consequences. His contract isn’t full guaranteed and the Raiders would only have about $7.5 million in dead money if they cut him after this year.

There isn’t a guarantee that Gruden won’t scrap Carr to start over with his new QB in his new Vegas market.

Cutting him appears unlikely because Carr is only 27 and has five years of starting experience. Teams would be interested in him, according to Fansided.

Thus, Carr could be too valuable not to trade too. Let’s not forget this is the team that traded Khalil Mack in his prime. They could easily do the same with Carr if someone makes an offer they can’t refuse. If Gruden could get a first round pick and something else for Carr, I think the Raiders would consider that.

The Conclusion

In the end, most of the decision to build or not build around Carr centers around his wins and losses. No one has lost as many games as Derek in their first five seasons. Sure, that’s not all on Carr but he doesn’t duck blame either.

Ultimately, the Raiders may move on from Carr this year or in a few years. Either outcome, makes him Gruden’s bridge QB between the final days of Oakland and the beginning of Vegas. I personally would rather see the Raiders move on and give Carr an opportunity with another team.

Otherwise, Carr will waste in the mediocrity of the Raiders before Gruden drafts and grooms his replacement. That’s sad for me to write, but every boring offensive game and loss just makes that closer to Carr’s reality.