Big game hunting that should be the Colts mantra this week after taking down the red-hot Texans in Houston. This week the Colts host the vaunted Dallas Cowboys led by Zeke Elliot and a suffocating defense. With their playoff hopes on the line, it’s all hands on deck for Indy. Here again, we will look into the critical stats and numbers heading into the week.
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The Cowboys are firing on all cylinders but who have they played against? Their defense is no joke, but their offense is less than impressive when you look deeper. During their win streak, they have faced just one team in the top 16 of defensive DVOA, the Saints, in which they only scored 13 points. They’ve also faced the 32nd (ATL), 23rd twice (PHI) and 19th (WAS) with 24 points per game average. The Dallas offense is the weak spot on this team as they are also scoring only 2 TDs a game in regulation. The Colts defense is ranked 11th in defensive DVOA; the best Dallas has faced since Jacksonville in week six.
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2. 20+ pass yards/15+ rushing yards
Explosive plays will be the name of the game this week as both teams don’t seem to allow them. Dallas lets up 5.4% explosive play rate, and Indy is at a 5.9% rate, a slim margin, but this should hurt Dallas more. Frank Reich’s system is based on a quick-hitting offense that is predicated on shorter plays, but these splash plays drive Dallas best offensive games. Last week Amari Cooper had a fantastic game off deep passes, and it was almost all of their offense against the Eagles. I don’t see the same success coming against a much more talented Colts secondary. If they can shut down the big air plays, Zeke will need a huge game to stay in this game.
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The Colts are averaging a shade over 26 points per game, which bodes well for them. The Cowboys record when the defense lets up 24 points per game is a paltry 1-8, with that one win happening at home against Detriot. This stat even helps the Colts more when you consider the Colts score an average of 33 points at home this season. The Cowboys only road win against an offense higher ranked than the Colts was Atlanta.
This game will come down to Indy; everything points that the Colts should win this game. They have the better offense by a significant margin, and their defense is leagues ahead of what Dallas has faced in recent weeks. If the Colts trot out a Jaguars like performance, they will lose, but if they play close to their potential, they should blow out the Cowboys in Lucas Oil.
Article by: Maxx Hotton
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