The 2019 NFL season is still a ways away, with a draft and free agency still set to help shape rosters before the year begins. But with the league’s schedule being released, season win total bets are almost ready to be wagered on.
Here is some advice to help you evaluate these totals and nail your picks in 2019.
Bet Intelligently Based on Roster Moves
Roster moves are so important in the NFL, as just a couple of transactions can take a team and turn them into a contender overnight. Conversely, some moves won’t have much of an impact at all on the success of a team, even if they look important. Evaluating what has changed from year to year is the most important component of win total wagers.
For example, the Cleveland Browns made waves by trading for Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and is expected to help the Browns on offense. But is that move really going to help the Browns earn a substantially higher win total?
Cleveland already had explosive receivers at their disposal last season. Where they will see a jump in their win total is in the development of second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield. If Mayfield takes a step forward this year, the Browns will as well. But the Beckham trade won’t be as impactful as your average bettor thinks, which should be taken into account.
Similarly, the Oakland Raiders might be overrated in 2019 due to the acquisition of Antonio Brown. Brown is an elite talent, but the Raiders are a historically dysfunctional franchise, as evidenced by the start of the Jon Gruden era. How those two things will mix, given Brown’s recent antics, will potentially impact the team’s win total.
Find Value Where Possible
NFL totals betting is all about finding value, where a team might be overrated or underrated. Figuring out which teams fall into those categories can be the difference between a profitable preseason wager and one that is less so. There are hundreds of bookmakers out there these days and as a result, there is a chance that all the bookies don’t have a consensus opinion on a team. This can be a way to find places where a total might be too high or too low. These situations often arise when a team is going through some instability.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and their current chemistry woes might be a prime candidate for some value betting. They lost Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell already this offseason. But they are also loaded with talent and could still have a huge year. That could prompt disagreement among bookmakers as to what kind of year they will have.
The New York Giants are another interesting case, as they started the season 1-8 but got hot at the end of the year. There may be some disagreement among books as to which of those Giants teams will show up in 2019.
NFL team win totals are hard to get right, as one injury or mistake on the field can elevate or tank a team over the course of a season. But by analyzing rosters and looking at multiple sources to find value, there is a good chance to hit these over/under bets.
