The calender has turned from September to October and all but two teams have played a quarter of their season. Of the 32 teams, only three remain unbeaten. The New England Patriots and Kansas City sit a 4-0 and the San Francisco 49ers are 3-0. At this point, the Super Bowl 53 Champion Patriots remain the favorite to win Super Bowl 54.
Following the Patriots at +350 are the Chiefs at +500, the Saints at +1000, and the Eagles and Cowboys both at +1200. The next AFC team on the list is the Cleveland Browns at 10th at +2500. The deeper conference is clearly the NFC, however, the best two teams in the league reside in the AFC in New England and Kansas City with most oddsmakers favoring the team that has been in the last three Super Bowls and have won three of the last five.
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It’s not surprising considering Tom Brady is still playing at an MVP level (seven touchdowns, one interception, and 1,061 yards passing) and Bill Belichick still roams the sidelines. However, the biggest reason to this point is their league-leading defense that has allowed just one touchdown and two field goals through the first four games. Not only are they preventing teams from scoring at a historic level, but they are also a threat to score most times they are on the field.
It doesn’t seem like it is going to change any time soon. Heading into Washington for a Week 5 matchup with the Redskins, the Patriots open as double-digit favorites on the road for the second time this season. The first time came in Week 2 when they nearly doubled the 21.5 point spread. This time around, they are favored by 15.5 over the winless Redskins and despite struggling against the Bills, the Patriots are as safe a bet as anyone to cover once again.
If you’re the type of bettor who likes to take time to analyze the odds to find the best value, then you’ll want to check which sportsbook posts early lines. There are times when sites who post the lines first will make a mistake that sharp bettors can take advantage of while sites that post lines later will have had the time to see how the odds have shifted.
In addition to the team being heavily favored for the Super Bowl, Brady has the third-best odds at his fourth regular-season MVP award behind only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. If Brady continues to play as he did for the first three games, the MVP race could ultimately be settled in Foxboro on December 8th when the Chiefs and Patriots square off in a potential AFC Championship preview.