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Home MLB American League AL Central

Chicago White Sox: MLB’s Most Overrated Team Going Into 2020

Sam Turner by Sam Turner
February 10, 2020
in AL Central, American League, Chicago White Sox, Featured, MLB, MLB Featured
Reading Time: 7 mins read
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It cannot be disputed that the Chicago White Sox are set to improve in 2020, as they have added a slew of talent via free agency this winter and anticipate the rapid development of their prized prospect core. Baseball analysts around the country have declared the Sox as one of the winners of the offseason, and many have high expectations for the team in 2020. However, most baseball fans (especially those on the South Side of Chicago) are likely overestimating exactly how much this club has elevated its roster.

The White Sox finished 72-89 last season, 28.5 games behind the AL Central champion Minnesota Twins. Chicago’s -124 run differential was seventh-worst in baseball, which led to their expected win-loss record (69-92) being even worse than their actual mark.

Delving deeper into their 2019 totals does not inspire much optimism, and serves to solidify the fact that the White Sox were absolutely terrible last season. Their 6.3% walk rate ranked dead last in baseball, and their 25.6% strikeout rate was third-worst. And while the contributions of newcomers Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnación are sure to help guide these numbers in the right direction, (they posted 17.2 BB%/22.0 K%, 11.9 BB%/21.2 K% respectively in 2019), two players simply cannot transform an entire team.

Shortstop Tim Anderson was at the heart of these struggles. Despite the fact that many Sox fans seem to believe that he is the second coming of Derek Jeter, Anderson is an average-at-best Major League shortstop whose success in 2019 was almost entirely a fluke. Anderson’s average exit velocity, xwOBA, and hard-hit% each came in below the 50th percentile among all Major League players, per MLB.com’s Baseball Savant. These concerning underlying statistics insinuate that Anderson’s breakout 2019 campaign will not serve as an indicator of his future performance.

Additionally, his league-leading .335 batting average came with a major asterisk. Anderson’s .399 batting average on balls in play will prove to be highly unsustainable, as the MLB average BABIP in 2019 was .298. Nobody can escape the grasp of regression to the mean, and it is inevitably coming for Tim Anderson in 2020. Once Anderson’s batting average dips, as it most certainly will, his value as a batter will see a sharp decline. His 2.9% walk rate was tied for the second-worst among qualified Major League hitters, and a sudden massive improvement in this regard is unlikely. 

This all goes without mentioning Anderson’s mediocre defense; he totaled -1 infield outs above average in 2019 per Baseball Savant, ranking 21st among qualified MLB shortstops.

Further, it cannot be reasonably assumed that the White Sox young crop of prospects will be immediately capable of elite plate discipline at the MLB level. Ahead of Spring Training, second baseman Nick Madrigal and outfielder Luis Robert are both expected to compete for starting roles on their Major League club. Each are only 22 years old, and have not once faced an MLB-caliber pitcher, let alone an entire league full of them. There is no doubt that these two, along with a number of young players in the White Sox farm system, are extremely talented, and could very well turn into all-stars. Yet, the fact of the matter is that this growth will take time, and should not be counted on in the short-term.

Another young player who has not yet fully come into his own is Eloy Jiménez, who last year showed decent power during his rookie season, while also making clear that he has a way to go before he can be declared a star. Jiménez blasted 31 homers in 2019, but was worth an unremarkable 1.9 fWAR, which was just the 94th highest total among qualified Major League position players.

Jiménez has tremendous power, but his plate discipline – an aforementioned issue for the entire White Sox position player group – is extremely suspect. He recorded a .315 on-base percentage in 2019, which will not cut it at the Major League level, and is detrimental to the team as a whole. Jiménez, like Tim Anderson, had an awful strikeout to walk ratio, as his K-rate was 26.6%, compared to a walk rate of only 6.0%.

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The key difference that separates the two is that while Anderson is an average defender at shortstop, Jiménez is downright atrocious in the outfield. Jiménez ranked 89th among qualified MLB outfielders with -11 outs above average in 2019. To make matters worse, his defense is sure to become even poorer as he ages. He can’t be stashed at designated hitter either because of the aforementioned Encarnación and first baseman José Abreu.

Budding superstar Yoán Moncada and an established stalwart in Abreu, along with the newly acquired Grandal and Encarnación, are set to be strong points in this White Sox position player core. However, its glaring question marks are simply too damning to ignore. 

Much has been made of how the White Sox have improved upon a pitching staff whose cumulative ERA (4.91) was 22nd in baseball in 2019. Dallas Keuchel, whom the Sox signed to a three-year, $55.5 million contract in December, has been praised as being exactly the pitcher that this rotation needs. While Keuchel’s steady presence and veteran experience will be beneficial for the young arms on this Sox staff, he is years removed from being an above-average pitcher, let alone a Cy Young Award winner, which he was for the Houston Astros in 2015.

Last season with the Atlanta Braves, Keuchel posted a serviceable 3.75 ERA. However, his 4.72 FIP is far more telling. Keuchel’s fastball velocity and spin rate, strikeout percentage, average exit velocity against, hard-hit percentage, and expected batting and slugging percentages against were all among the bottom half of MLB starting pitchers in 2019. White Sox fans should be thrilled that their team is spending with the intention of fielding a winning club, but signing the aging and increasingly ineffective Keuchel will produce the same result as taking a torch to more than $50 million.

Lucas Giolito is likely the only safe guess as to who will be a reliable starting pitcher in this rotation. Giolito took a massive step forward in 2019, as he tapped into his immense talent with a 5.1 fWAR campaign last season.

Every other member of this starting staff, including the previously mentioned Keuchel, is just as likely to be a liability as they are to be an asset for this club. Dylan Cease is a fireballing righty who boasts wipeout stuff, but has struggled with control and consistency across limited innings thus far. Cease walked 4.32 batters per nine innings in 2019, which would have been the third highest total in MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. Cease will almost certainly become a solid Major League starter in due time, but probably not next season.

Michael Kopech is in a similar boat as Cease when it comes to electric stuff, but he also must overcome the hurdle of having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2018. Kopech’s status for 2020 is still somewhat unclear, but he has publicly stated that he is ready to pitch. Yet, he will most certainly be restricted to an innings limit, and the White Sox will not be able to fully deploy him right away, which will cap his (and the Sox) upside in 2020.

It is widely assumed that the remaining rotation spots for the Sox will be occupied by Reynaldo López and Gio González, who are also far from dependable. López was acquired by the Sox prior to the 2017 season in the Adam Eaton trade, and has not posted a FIP below 4.63 in the three seasons since. González is 34 and in the twilight of his career. He can be counted on as a decent fifth rotation option, but nothing more.

Carlos Rodón, who also underwent Tommy John surgery fairly recently, may also vie for a starting role at some point in the middle months of this coming season. However, it would be foolish at this point to assume that any contribution that Rodón provides in 2020 will be anything more than a bonus, as his health will come with serious uncertainty.

The White Sox bullpen is fine. Their major addition to the group this offseason was Steve Cishek, who was signed to a one-year, $6 million pact in January. Alex Colomé projects to be their closer, with Aaron Bummer, Kelvin Herrera, Jace Fry, Ian Hamilton, and Evan Marshall as setup arms, along with Cishek. Bummer is held in high regard by many, as his powerful sinker is an elite pitch.

Bullpens are fluky and often subject to statistical variance, so who knows, the Sox bullpen could be fantastic. Or it could be awful. We will have to wait and see.

Moreover, this White Sox ball club is unquestionably heading in the right direction towards contention. 

They are just not quite there yet.

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Comments 7

  1. James Kincaid says:
    3 years ago

    You seem a little bias toward other teams. You try to take every bad stat from everyone on that team, but forget to look at the good stats.

    Reply
    • Sam Turner says:
      3 years ago

      This is essentially a worst case scenario for the Sox. It’s possible that they are good this year – these are the stats that show why they probably won’t be.

      Reply
  2. Jeff says:
    3 years ago

    This article acts as if every white sox player will regress, instead of the more likely scenario of young players improving with more major league experience. It seemed like Eloy Jiminez was 33 years old instead of 23 in this article, already talking about how his defense is going to regress as he gets older? More likely it will improve as he moves into his prime. There is just as much chance of this team exceeding expectations as there are of it finishing disastrously. Unless you ask this wet blanket, of course.

    Reply
  3. MattyK says:
    3 years ago

    I think the article brings up good points— plate discipline and high strike out rates are a weakness in the sox offense. Their pitching staff has holes (like almost every other staff in baseball). However, the article focuses on some sort of ignorant bliss preventing Sox fans to recognize reality, which just does not exist. All major projection sites have the Sox some where between 83-87 wins. The team is much improved at that win total. That said, if a few things go their way it’s not hard to imagine this team making the playoffs. With all the above mentioned being true, fangraphs still projects the Sox to have the 8th best batting WAR in baseball. I guess I am confused by the point of the post. Like I said, though it’s factually based the conclusion is wrapped up in assumption of naïveté.

    Reply
  4. Matt says:
    3 years ago

    Most overrated? please. This article is literally the worst case scenario season for the White Sox, as the same could be said for almost every other good team in baseball. And Eloy Jimenez has a long way to go? the guy missed 40 games last year and still hit 30 homeruns and went on an absolute tear toward the end of the year. Their offense could be one of the best in the league this year, Nomar Mazara is arguably their worst hitter and he was the rangers clean up last year. Also the White Sox will not be trotting out pitchers like Dylan Covey, Ervin Santana, Ross Detwiler or Odrisamer Despaigne, who costed the team over 20 losses in 2019 and had over a 7 ERA combined. Saying that Tim Anderson’s 2019 was a “fluke” is just a biased opinion. Even if he regresses a little he could still be a great player as he is only 27 years old and has room to improve. If anything this team is underrated and Im willing to bet this team will be scary in 2020.

    Reply
  5. Dan1648 says:
    3 years ago

    This guy is obviously a Cubs, Indians, Twins, Tigers or Royals fan. The article is a blatant bias against the White Sox. I will never read anything from this Twat again.

    Reply
  6. Frankie says:
    3 years ago

    For starters, u said eloys defense will only get worse with age. Hes like 23 and idk about u, but that means he hasnt hit his prime yet, which means he can still improve. Also being ranked 94th in fWAR out of all position players is still above average, despite missing a month or so, so chill with the eloy hate. I can understand your argument for andersons regression, but other than that, i do not see a hole on this team. Luis robert flew through the minors and finished with an ops at 1.001. Nick madrigal only struck out 16 times all of last year. I understand that those numbers are not sustaniable at the mlb level, but i dont think theyre gonna regress to adam engel like numbers.

    Reply

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    Stack the Pucks gives a breakdown of every NHL Game on the card. Today, we take a look at Game 5 […]

  • IIHF Worlds: Team USA Remains Unbeaten Advancing to Semifinals
    by Jim Biringer on May 25, 2023 at 4:53 pm

    Team USA is off to the semifinals at the IIHF World Championships as they remain unbeaten as their […]

  • PODCAST: Full Press Blackhawks – 5/25 – Offseason Outlook
    by Full Press Blackhawks Podcast on May 25, 2023 at 4:45 pm

    What team-building blueprint should the Blackhawks follow and what will the 2023 offseason look […]

  • Wranglers End Season in Series Loss to Firebirds
    by Paige Siewert on May 25, 2023 at 3:35 pm

    After taking the series to a full five games, the Coachella Valley Firebirds beat the Calgary […]

  • PODCAST: Stack The Pucks – 5/25 – Golden Knights at Stars
    by Stack The Pucks Podcast on May 25, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    Stack the Pucks gives a breakdown of every NHL Game on the card. Today, we take a look at Game 4 […]

More Hockey News

  • FPH Daily: Devils To Host Stadium Series, Changes In Toronto and Calgary
    by Full Press Coverage on May 23, 2023 at 7:07 pm

    Jim is back with another Full Press Hockey Daily as the Devils Return to […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM7276007400.mp3?updated=1684869220
  • FPH Daily: Kyle Dubas OUT in Toronto; Panthers/Canes OT Thriller
    by Full Press Coverage on May 19, 2023 at 7:11 pm

    Jim is back with news of Kyle Dubas not returning in Toronto and what is […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM1376567477.mp3?updated=1684523852
  • San Antonio Spurs Win NBA Draft Lottery
    by Full Press Coverage on May 17, 2023 at 2:26 pm

    Ian and John react to the Spurs winning the NBA Draft Lottery and their […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM5763373330.mp3?updated=1684334223
  • FPH Daily: Oilers, Leafs Need Changing
    by Full Press Coverage on May 15, 2023 at 9:49 pm

    Jim is back with a Full Press Hockey Daily looking at changes that may […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM8080783564.mp3?updated=1684187770

This Week On FPC Radio LIVEMore Shows

  • 5/26 - Celtics Force Game 6; Mahomes QB List
    by Full Press Coverage on May 26, 2023 at 2:12 pm

    Ian and John discuss the Celtics big Game 5 win the Top 5 quarterbacks of […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV5295530728.mp3?updated=1685110699
  • 5/25 - Panthers Advance To Stanley Cup Finals; Celtics/Heat
    by Full Press Coverage on May 25, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Ian and John discuss the Celtics and the Heat and welcome in Jim Bringer […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV3456207383.mp3?updated=1685069617
  • 5/24 - Lakers Eliminated, Celtics Force Game 5
    by Full Press Coverage on May 24, 2023 at 2:08 pm

    Ian and John discuss the Lakers loss to the Nuggets in the Western […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV6949577215.mp3?updated=1684937612
  • 5/22 - Celtics, Lakers Face 0-3 Deficit
    by Full Press Coverage on May 22, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    Ian and John react to the Celtics and Lakers being down 0-3 in their […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV1957701941.mp3?updated=1684764384

  • Night of Champions Headlined By Tag Team Title Match
    by Jim Biringer on May 27, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    We are just one day away from Night of Champions in Saudi Arabia. It is everyone’s favourite time […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM2266342186.mp3?updated=1650484841
  • Crossbody of Work Episode 166: Gene Snitsky
    by Evan Gomes on May 27, 2023 at 2:20 pm

    Welcome to Crossbody of Work, a show where we break down a wrestler’s career through five of […]

  • AEW Double or Nothing Odds: Can MJF Keep the AEW World Title?
    by Jim Biringer on May 26, 2023 at 5:19 pm

    AEW’s Double or Nothing is this Sunday, May 28th in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena. Along with now […]

  • AEW Dynamite Viewership Rises Heading into Double or Nothing
    by Jim Biringer on May 26, 2023 at 1:14 am

    It is Thursday and you know what that means… ratings for AEW Dynamite are out. Double or Nothing […]

  • Wrestling Roundup: CM Punk, Bloodline, Bray Wyatt and More
    by Jim Biringer on May 25, 2023 at 4:48 pm

    In the latest edition of the wrestling roundup we look at the news of CM Punk Returning to AEW, the […]

More Wrestling News

  • Ep 119: Patrick Mahomes' Top 5 List
    by Full Press Coverage on May 27, 2023 at 7:49 pm

    Ian and John discuss Patrick Mahomes' Top 5 quarterbacks list. Learn more […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM3520329267.mp3?updated=1685217387
  • Ep 157: Colts Owner Jim Irsay Joins The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on May 27, 2023 at 7:24 pm

    Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay joins Clark and Ira to discuss his Top […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM1847319131.mp3?updated=1685215744
  • Celtics at Heat
    by Broken Controller Media on May 27, 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Stackin the NBA gives you an unique perspective on each NBA match-up on […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM3827433971.mp3?updated=1685200315
  • Full Press MMA - Friday, May 26th
    by Full Press Coverage on May 26, 2023 at 11:00 pm

    Francis Ngannou tells the world how much- or how little- he made in his […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM8490418269.mp3?updated=1685141269
  • AEW Double or Nothing and Night of Champions Preview
    by Full Press Coverage on May 26, 2023 at 9:59 pm

    Jim is back once again joined by Teddy Repantis as they preview Double or […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM1854112202.mp3?updated=1685138693
  • Full Press MMA - Thursday, May 25th
    by Full Press Coverage on May 25, 2023 at 11:00 pm

    Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic might be in trouble as rumors swirl about Jones […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM4692920558.mp3?updated=1685049125
  • Heat at Celtics
    by Broken Controller Media on May 25, 2023 at 12:50 pm

    Stackin the NBA gives you an unique perspective on each NBA match-up on […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM3923352336.mp3?updated=1685018145
  • Episode 144: Celtics Stay Alive Against The Heat, Ime Udoka’s Departure Is Still On Their Minds, And Sports Logo Draft
    by Mike Cratty on May 25, 2023 at 7:00 am

    Episode 144 includes discussions Celtics staying alive against the Heat, […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM2448141448.mp3?updated=1685021239
  • Full Press MMA - Wednesday, May 24th
    by Full Press Coverage on May 24, 2023 at 11:00 pm

    My response to Bloody Elbow’s attack on the MMA “media”, Khamzat […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM7783658066.mp3?updated=1684965627
  • Ep. 91 NBA Conference Finals
    by Full Press Coverage on May 24, 2023 at 10:45 pm

    In episode 91, Criss is joined by Ed Cole to break down the Eastern and […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BRCM6836406965.mp3?updated=1684968162
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