Derek Carr’s Instagram captions don’t need to tell us what is already on the wall. Carr is on his way out of Silver and Black whether that is this year or some other time soon. The timing will really depend on the compensation.
Smokescreen
Don’t buy what Mike Mayock is saying at the NFL Combine about Derek Carr. First of all, this organization already duped us by trading Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper amidst denials. Second, openly putting Carr on the block only kills his trade value. Third, why would they expose themselves as a player for QB in the draft this early in the process? The keyword in Mayock’s constant denial is that he said actively. AKA they aren’t calling teams shopping for him but they are listening and probably not getting what they want offered for him.
Fact
Either way, Carr can keep posting passive-aggressive pictures of QB-needy teams. That won’t stop teams from inquiring about him or the Raiders trying to assess his value. Mayock can shoot everything down too but that won’t stop him or Gruden from making a move when the price and time are right.
What is Derek Carr Worth?
Precedent
Last year, the Baltimore Ravens moved on from starter Joe Flacco while the Miami Dolphins moved on from Ryan Tannehill. Both got about a fourth-round pick in exchange. Neither of those guys finished their previous seasons as starters. That means Carr must net at least a second or third-round pick. However, Carr doesn’t have the same level of playoff experience as either guys who by the way might also be available again this offseason. The Titans bet on Tannehill worked while the Broncos bet on Flacco did not work. Again, this dynamic could help or hurt the Raiders in trade negotiations depending on how they position it.
Flooded Scene
You look at the rest of the market and it is stacked with quarterbacks who have starting experience. Sure, they are all available for a reason but it only takes one coach ego to think they can save a project.
The Market
Hopefully, they will try to bet on Carr so the Raiders get the maximum compensation. Anything less than a third rock pick favors whoever gets Carr. However, the trade rally just depends on how the rest of the QB market all plays out.
A young team might bet on the raw talent of Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston who are younger. They might try to go with the experience of Philip Rivers or even Tom Brady, should he get free. Not to mention, Dak Prescott who brings running ability and age on Carr. Teddy Bridgewater was also picked ahead of Carr for a reason. He could easily be ahead of Carr on QB-needy teams big-board again after successfully backing up Brees the past few seasons.
Names on the Move?
Plus, what happens if Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford is on the block as rumored? That could easily drive the price of getting Carr down as fewer teams would be interested. Andy Dalton is also expected to be available. I wouldn’t take him or Nick Foles over Carr but another team might, especially if they can get Dalton or Foles as cheaper bridge guys. There are also your Blake Bortles, RGII, and company who have starting experience and played the backup spot right. They might be looking for one more shot at competing for a starting job. Again, making it harder to place where Carr could go.
All the available QBs make it hard to pick precisely what team would trade what for what QB. It will all come down to timing and scheme fit as to whether the Raiders can get a second or first-rounder. My bet is they would move him for a first though.
Timing
For instance, the Raiders could wait until after the draft but his value goes down if they are serious about drafting the future signal-caller. As soon as they draft a QB with one of their first-rounders. Think about how the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen for one of the last picks in the second round after they selected him in the top ten less than a year earlier. Rosen benefited from teams not really knowing who he was. His potential drove his price higher than the veterans who got traded. Carr doesn’t have that benefit as a six-year starter. We know who he is so it is unclear if teams would value him closer to that fourth-round pick that was given up for Tannehill or Flacco or closer to the first round which is what Raiders fans would want.
Realization
Vegas should trade Carr before the draft, either way. That’s probably the best time so teams can integrate him into the offense. Still, the price may not be right because there are so many QBs with starting and quality backup experience already available.
More Value Talk
Who knows though? Maybe, there is a team or coach out there who really believes Carr could lead them to a Super Bowl. Maybe that person might give the Raiders a premium to get their guy. If that were the case though, Carr would probably be in another uniform by now. Then again, CBA negotiations might be slowing down whatever trade talks are going on behind the scenes.
Draft Option?
Regardless, the Silver and Black probably won’t dump Carr unless they take his replacement on draft day. At that point, you’re probably looking closer to that third or fourth range. That wouldn’t be the best value as they could stash Carr and force him to be the mentor and bridge for who they draft. Then, they could trade Carr for whatever they want midseason to any team that has an injured. However, Carr doesn’t seem open to mentoring which is why we have this passive-aggressive cold war between Carr stans and fans who want to see him traded.
D.C.’s Legacy
It’s nothing personal D.C. We love you. You compete hard and seem like a great family guy. You gave us franchise records and something to root for. You’ll always be a Raiders. However, our team is young and needs a signal-caller that reflects that. Besides, if you can’t beat Mahomes and Kansas City, as Carr has shown, what are we doing? Mine as well mix it up. Try something new for Vegas. Give them a new franchise signal-caller as well as a second-rounder. Carr shouldn’t feel bad about it though. We did pick him over Cooper and Mack and he will go somewhere else with a ready-met team that only needs his game management+ services.
Bottom Line
Again, though the question is what is the price and when is the time will ultimately decide what the Raiders get back for Carr. Even if Gruden came out and adamantly denied rumors, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders trade a team to the highest bidder. Luckily, there are a number of teams who need a QB. This draft class has for sure a couple of first-round QBs. The rest of the group really depends on scheme fit and plans for development. After the first two or three quarterbacks, the rest of the group is hit or miss depending on fit. That could help or hurt Carr’s value. Either way, the Raiders don’t have a second-round pick. Do you really think Oakland is going to twiddle their thumbs until the third? Yeah right.
Summary
Don’t be surprised if you see Carr gets traded between now and the end of the second round. That price tag would be higher than the Tannehill and Flacco price tags and probably Rosen too. It would be a fair trade for both sides.
