Sports leagues run on narratives because of the media’s need to remain relevant at all points in time. The average NBA fan’s pick for MVP, opinion on LeBron, and idolization of Michael Jordan is shaped this way. This is not to blame the fan, however, as fandom in any sport begins from the bottom up. The fan first learns the sport, drawing from the media or friends. This is the only way to reach a level of engagement with the sport that then inspires personal investigation.
The amount of data available on the NBA is constantly rising. While I am not here to discuss every statistic, I want to point out an example of a recent advance that allows for even more understanding and the development of a personal conclusion. While no data is perfect, and some is more flawed than other, my goal is to present the argument that any research is preferable to only following the news.
Basketball Reference has recently added a feature that allows you to name a player and see his teammates as well as opponents throughout his career through certain basic statistics.
This particular feature by no means can establish something like the true GOAT, but it can provide tangible insight on a players career that carries more meaning than simply being told the fact. In the time I have spent tinkering with this feature, I got the sense that there are two levels of insight that can come out of the results; interesting tidbits and fundamental knowledge. It’s important to not enter seeking a conclusion, and instead take what the data gives.
An interesting tidbit is something that may challenge an implicit notion you had, but the realization is by no means groundbreaking or essential to the NBA. It may involve a relatively fringe player. For example, DeMar DeRozan is known for his time spent with Kyle Lowry as a duo. It may be surprising to know that DeRozan’s longest tenured teammate is Jonas Valanciunas.
More significantly, fundamental insight can lead to some more important conceptual understanding of NBA timeframes. Kevin Durant played more career games with James Harden than with anyone on the Golden State Warriors (259 with Harden, 247 with Klay Thompson). For a 20 year old fan today, this is a tangible way to understand that Oklahoma City held its big three together for about the same time the superteam Golden State Warriors did. Jeff Green played even more games with Durant than James Harden, but his 40.8 win percentage with Durant correctly indicates that their partnership was in Durant’s early years.
Shifting gears, LeBron James is sometimes discredited for reaching the NBA finals by virtue of having played in the easier eastern conference. Instead of writing off the entire conference, we can look at what teams gave him relatively more trouble. Holding a barely above .500 record against Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo, we can see that the Boston Celtics of that era were a worthy competitor. These three players are also in LeBron’s top seven most commonly faced opponents, showing their longevity in competition. LeBron holds a roughly 60-65% win rate against players like Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Taj Gibson, while facing them less often than the Celtic players. This suggests the Chicago Bulls of that time possessed less longevity, while also being less competitive against LeBron. The notable high volume players who LeBron most frequently beats are Al Horford and DeMar DeRozan, both of which lose to James about 80% of the time. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors were swept out of the playoffs by LeBron at various points.
Looking at his matchups against the Western Conference, LeBron wins about 40% of games against Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan. He performs even worse against the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. These particular dynasties out of the west have given LeBron the most trouble throughout his career, so it could be reasonable to say LeBron would have been more pressed to make the finals if operating out of the west. Interestingly enough, over a large span of games, Kevin Durant performs significantly better against the members of the dynastic Spurs, yet has a losing record against LeBron. This demonstrates the rock-paper-scissors dynamic that exists within the league.
-
Ep 102: Chiefs, Eagles Advance To The Super Bowl
by Full Press Coverage on January 30, 2023 at 11:26 pm
Historical insights are intriguing because they uncover information that has been lost in the collective conscience, as history is naturally more fuzzy the further you go back. If talking history, the natural place to begin is Michael Jordan. Jordan played 859 games with Scottie Pippen, with distant second place John Paxson teaming up for 657. In fact, only six players exceeded 400 games played with Jordan, which suggests there was great roster turmoil despite the dynastic Bulls winning six titles in eight years.
History also tends to forget certain player matchups. Jordan faced Reggie Miller 56 times, which is the 14th most out of any opponent. However, it is less known than his matchups against the bad boy Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, or New York Knicks. This can be attributed to their lack of playoff matchups, having played only seven games (one series). This playoff total ranks last out of the top twenty opponents by total games played, with most others having faced Jordan over 20 times. Jordan’s lowest win rate against high volume opponents is against members of the Pistons, hovering around 45% for most members. This confirms that, by combination of challenge and longevity, the Pistons were the single largest roadblock to Jordan’s success.
Going back to LeBron, we can now see how having your main competitor be within your conference instead of the other conference can influence your finals record. LeBron, with chronic struggle against particular opponents in the other conference, sees it reflected in his finals record. Jordan, by virtue of losing earlier in the playoffs against his nemesis, escapes with a 6-0 finals record. This happenstance alone drives the greatest of all time debate heavily, and will continue to do so as LeBron’s career progresses.
This large master list of player opponents is also a way to measure sustained dominance. As opponents differ by quantities of games played as well as team and portion of career in which they match up, a higher blanket win rate vs all of them suggests career longevity. This is different from a successful peak. Jordan and Stephen Curry each have a peak of many years that set countless standards. Yet, each player has a losing record against some of their frequently faced opponents, suggesting noteworthy struggles at some point.
One player who amazingly does not have this is Magic Johnson. Magic faced 122 distinct opponents at least 28 times. He has a winning record against all of them. Only at 123rd place does Bobby Jones have a 14-13 record against Magic. By seeing that Bobby Jones played for the Philadelphia 76ers in the first half of the 1980’s, we can see that the 76ers of that particular time were the biggest challenge to Magic in his career.
The closest modern-day version of this setup is Tony Parker. Like Magic Johnson, he was added to the team a few years after a dominant front court player, meaning the team was good upon his arrival. Like the Lakers, the Spurs made the playoffs every season and won titles in a spread-out manner instead of consecutively. Finally, like Magic, Parker retired from a team that was still a playoff contender. Out of his top 100 opponents by total matchups, Parker has a winning record against all except Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, and Serge Ibaka. One can intuitively imagine that a streak like Magic’s or Parker’s will never happen again (if looking at big name players). The NBA has reached the pinnacle of player movement, meaning dissatisfied players who are consistently losing against others will look to team up in superteams (or dynamic duos in this past season), which then cyclically inflicts head to head losses on the next round of dissatisfied stars. As a result, the landscape now churns too often to generate dynasties with permanent blanket winning records against absolutely everyone else. 57% of minutes played in 2019 were by players who were on that same team in 2018. That number a decade ago was 70%, and has been, in fact, declining since the 1960’s. For context, Magic Johnson played when the minute retention rate was oscillating between 75%-85%.
This was just a small example of a journey you could take in the sea of data that is available. If you were surprised or intrigued by anything I said, your own discoveries and revelations could be a website away.
-
Ep 142: Former Washington Quarterback And Super Bowl Champion Doug Williams Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on February 3, 2023 at 10:19 pm
Former Washington quarterback and Super Bowl champion Doug Williams joins […]
-
Ep 141: Andy Reid, Eagles, And Conference Championship Weekend w/ Joe Bannerby Full Press Coverage on January 27, 2023 at 5:36 pm
Clark and Ira are joined by former Eagles President Joe Banner to talk […]
-
Ep 137: Hall Of Fame Discussion w/ John Turneyby Full Press Coverage on December 30, 2022 at 5:33 pm
Football historian John Turney of Pro Football Journal joins Clark and Ira […]
-
Ep 136: Remembering The Longest Game Ever Played With Larry Littleby Full Press Coverage on December 24, 2022 at 1:09 am
On the 51-year anniversary of the longest game ever played (Chiefs vs. […]
-
Ep 135: Hall of Fame Semifinalist Jahri Evans Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on December 16, 2022 at 3:51 pm
Former Saints guard and 2023 HOF Semifinalist Jahri Evans joins Clark and […]
-
Ep 134: Remember AFL/NFL Star John Hadl with Nick Canepaby Full Press Coverage on December 8, 2022 at 2:39 pm
Former Hall of Fame voter, Nick Canepa, joins Clark and Ira to discuss the […]
-
Ep 133: Hall Of Fame Semifinalist Henry Ellard Joins The Showby Full Press Coverage on November 30, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Former Rams and Redskins wide receiver, Henry Ellard, joins Clark and Ira […]
-
Ep 132: Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2023 Semifinalists w/ Rick Gosselinby Full Press Coverage on November 22, 2022 at 6:15 pm
Clark and Ira are joined by Pro Football Hall of Fame voter Rick Gosselin […]
-
Ep 131: 'Football Heaven' With PFHOF Senior Advisor Joe Horriganby Full Press Coverage on November 17, 2022 at 5:55 pm
Pro Football Hall of Fame Senior Advisor, Joe Horrigan, joins Clark and […]
-
Ep 130: Remembering John McVay With Hall of Famer Eddie DeBartolo Jr.by Full Press Coverage on November 13, 2022 at 1:42 am
Clark and Ira are joined by Hall of Fame owner Eddie DeBartolo Jr. to […]
-
Ep 271: NFL Championship Roundby Full Press Coverage on January 26, 2023 at 1:58 pm
-
Ep 270: NFL Divisional Roundby Full Press Coverage on January 19, 2023 at 1:31 am
-
Ep 269: NFL Playoff Previewby Full Press Coverage on January 12, 2023 at 4:13 am
-
Ep 268: Week 16 Fantasy Rankingsby Full Press Coverage on December 21, 2022 at 9:45 pm
-
(Episode 3.2) Offseason Talk with the "Command This!" Podcastby Full Press Coverage on February 1, 2023 at 3:04 am
George Carmi hosts Steve, Dev, and Phil as they discuss the Commanders […]
-
Ep 167: Super Bowl LVII Previewby Full Press Coverage on February 1, 2023 at 12:33 am
This season premiere featured a preview of the NFL's season finale. In […]
-
2/3 - Tom Brady Retires... For Goodby Full Press Coverage on February 3, 2023 at 2:20 pm
Ian and John react to Tom Brady's second, and likely final, retirement. […]
-
1/31 - Tom Brady and the 49ers, Aaron Rodgers Futureby Full Press Coverage on January 31, 2023 at 9:00 am
Ian and John discuss whether or not the 49ers loss in the NFC Championship […]
-
1/30 - Conference Championship Recap: Eagles, Chiefs Advanceby Full Press Coverage on January 30, 2023 at 10:35 am
Ian and John recap the Eagles and Chiefs victories on Conference […]
-
1/27 - Conference Championship Preview: Who is Going To The Super Bowl?by Full Press Coverage on January 27, 2023 at 9:50 am
Ian and John preview Conference Championship Weekend and give their picks […]
-
Talkamania Episode 230by Talkamania on September 6, 2022 at 11:43 pm
-
Talkamania Episode 229by Talkamania on August 5, 2022 at 3:37 am
-
Boot 2 The Face Episode 211 "Steel Reserve"by Boot 2 The Face on January 28, 2023 at 6:59 pm
We preview the Royal Rumble and other things in the week of pro wreslting. […]
-
Boot 2 The Face Episode 210 "No Monè, No Monè, No Monè"by Boot 2 The Face on January 19, 2023 at 12:55 am
Rucker and EJ are back discussing Rucker going to Impacts Hard to Kill […]
-
Hawks at Nuggetsby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 10:00 pm
-
Mavericks at Warriorsby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 9:00 pm
-
Rockets at Thunderby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 8:15 pm
-
Heat at Bucksby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 7:30 pm
-
Trail Blazers at Bullsby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 6:45 pm
-
Clippers at Knicksby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 6:00 pm
-
Suns at Pistonsby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 5:15 pm
-
Wizards at Netsby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 4:30 pm
-
Lakers at Pelicansby Broken Controller Media on February 4, 2023 at 3:45 pm
-
Ep 150: Owen Hart Part One - Young Gunby Full Press Coverage on February 4, 2023 at 3:00 pm
-
1/6 - Damar Hamlin Update, Bills/Bengals, AFC Playoffs, Week 18 Picksby Full Press Coverage on January 6, 2023 at 3:11 pm
-
Winter Classic: Bruins Rally To Beat Penguins At Fenwayby Full Press Coverage on January 4, 2023 at 2:09 am
-
1/3 - Bills/Bengals Postponed; Bruins Topple Penguins In Winter Classicby Full Press Coverage on January 4, 2023 at 2:05 am
-
1/2 - Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Week 17, Bills/Bengalsby Full Press Coverage on January 3, 2023 at 3:22 am
-
12/30 - New Year's Eve, Luka Doncic, NBA Talk, Week 17 Preview and Picksby Full Press Coverage on January 1, 2023 at 2:29 am
-
Aaron Rodgers, Packers Win Third Straight; Playoffs In Sightby Full Press Coverage on December 27, 2022 at 7:36 pm