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Home NFL NFC NFC East New York Giants

The Three True Outcomes of Daniel Jones

Ryan Cuneo by Ryan Cuneo
June 30, 2020
in New York Giants, NFC, NFC East
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As baseball analytics grow, the concept of “Three True Outcomes” has risen to prominence. A walk, home run, or strikeout are considered the only “true” outcomes of any plate appearance. They’re seen as the cleanest way to evaluate hitters and pitchers since they occur without the help of team defense.

Daniel Jones is used to playing without the help of a defense. The New York Giants quarterback was tasked to win games virtually by himself last season. Big Blue’s defense hemorrhaged yardage, their offensive line was a sieve, and their skill-position players split time between the training room and the field. But Jones managed an impressive rookie year despite his surroundings. The Duke product had a completion percentage over 60 and a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. His 24 touchdowns through 12 games would’ve set the rookie record if prorated over a 16-game schedule.

But one promising season does not make a great player. Using Pro Football Reference’s player season finder, here’s a set of quarterbacks with comparable rookie seasons to Jones (over 58% completions, over 15 touchdown passes, over 10 interceptions, with at least 10 games started). From that set, the ones that are stylistically dissimilar to Jones or are too young to assess can be filtered out. What’s left are The Three True Outcomes of Daniel Jones: three players that represent the paths his career can take. One is a walk (average), one is a strikeout (bad), and one is a home run (great).

Walk: Andy Dalton

Jones and Dalton had eerily similar rookie years. Jones had four more touchdown passes and one less interception (in four fewer games), but both averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. Dalton is the epitome of quarterback mediocrity. When the Cincinnati Bengals put a good team around him, they went to the playoffs five straight years from 2011-2015. However, the Bengals didn’t win a single playoff game during that stretch (Dalton missed the 2015 playoffs due to injury). Dalton couldn’t keep the team competitive when their roster talent declined, and the Bengals have since moved on.

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Jones is more mobile than Dalton, and his rookie year showed he’s a better playmaker. But the chances of him having a Dalton-esque career can’t be ignored. The Giants would at least get on-base if Jones were the next Dalton, but those who mocked them for picking him sixth overall would be vindicated.

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Strikeout: Marcus Mariota

Mariota wasn’t a complete bust like Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell. Still, when you draft a quarterback second overall and he doesn’t make it to a second contract, that’s a whiff. The Oregon product had a better quarterback rating and more yards per attempt than Jones his rookie year. But their completion percentages were nearly the same and Jones had five more touchdown passes.

Mariota did have modest success with the Tennessee Titans. He won a playoff game in 2017 and had an almost 3:1 touchdown to interception ration in 2016. But it had become clear that the Titans were limited with him him at quarterback. They became a much better team once Ryan Tannehill replaced him. The Giants need Jones to be a player that spurs them forward, not one that holds them back.

Home Run: Matt Ryan

The Giants would love if in twelve years time, Jones is a four-time pro-bowler with an MVP and super bowl appearance. Jones and Ryan had the exact same 87.7 quarterback rating as rookies, with Ryan having a better yards per attempt but Jones throwing eight more touchdown passes.

Ryan was a common comparison for Jones coming out of Duke. Neither has great arm strength, but both display accuracy and touch to all three levels of the defense. Even their athletic profiles are startlingly alike.

If Ryan exemplifies the best path forward for Jones, the Giants should emulate the Atlanta Falcons in how they supported him. Ryan always had an elite number one receiver (Roddy White, Julio Jones) and a pass catching tight end (Tony Gonzalez, Austin Hooper) at his disposal. It’ll be easier said than done to provide the same for Jones. But when you have a chance at the plate with a franchise quarterback, you may as well swing for the fences.

 

 

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  • Team Commitment Is Key To Tampa Bay Lightning Success
    by Jim Biringer on May 21, 2022 at 12:30 pm

    Embed from Getty Images It took the Tampa Bay Lightning some time to find their game, but now that […]

  • Leafs’ Grades This Year: Great Regular-Season, Less So In Playoffs
    by Adam Proteau on May 21, 2022 at 1:46 am

    The Toronto Maple Leafs season is over and now it's time to issue grades for every forward, […]

  • The Philadelphia Flyers Hold Pick No. 5 In The 2022 NHL Draft
    by Carol Schram on May 20, 2022 at 9:00 am

    The Philadelphia Flyers will select fifth overall in the upcoming NHL Draft in Montreal this July […]

  • NHL Postseason Dissection: Predators, Capitals See Early Playoff Exit
    by Michael Augello on May 19, 2022 at 10:32 pm

    The Predators and Capitals failed to make it past the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. What […]

More Hockey News

  • Celtics Rebound In Game Two; Series Heads To Boston
    by Full Press Coverage on May 21, 2022 at 11:00 am

    Ian and John discuss the Celtics big game two win over the Heat as the […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49878652/fpcradio_5_20_celticsheatnba.mp3
  • Lightning On Way To A Three-Peat? (5/20)
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 4:18 pm

    Ian and John discuss the Tampa Bay Lightning and their 2-0 series lead […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49878600/fpcradio_5_20_lightningnhl.mp3
  • 5/20 - Tampa Bay Lightning; Celtics Blow Out Heat
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 1:41 pm

    Ian and John discuss the Tampa Bay Lightning's quest for a third-straight […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49877345/adv8008062838.mp3
  • 5/16 - Celtics Advance; Jayson Tatum; Golden State; NBA Playoffs
    by Full Press Coverage on May 17, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    Ian and John react to the Celtics game seven win over the Bucks and Jayson […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49833358/adv7848941251.mp3

  • Crossbody of Work Episode 114: Paul London
    by Evan Gomes on May 21, 2022 at 2:20 pm

    Welcome to Crossbody of Work, a show where we break down a wrestler’s career through five of […]

  • AEW Dynamite Viewership Rises Heading Towards Double or Nothing
    by Jim Biringer on May 19, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    It’s Thursday and you know what that means… ratings for Wednesday night AEW Dynamite are out. […]

  • Crossbody of Work Episode 113: Wade Barrett
    by Evan Gomes on May 14, 2022 at 2:20 pm

    Welcome to Crossbody of Work, a show where we break down a wrestler’s career through five of […]

  • Stiff Competition sees AEW Dynamite Viewership Drop Again
    by Jim Biringer on May 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm

    It’s Thursday and you know what that means… ratings for Wednesday night AEW Dynamite are out. […]

  • Crossbody of Work Episode 112: Stan Hansen
    by Evan Gomes on May 7, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    Welcome to Crossbody of Work, a show where we break down a wrestler’s career through five of […]

More Wrestling News

  • Section 1
  • Section 2
  • Section
  • Section
  • Section
  • Section

Section 1

  • Ep 110: New Playoff Teams In 2022; Best Matchups On NFL Scehdule
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 3:42 am

    Clark, Ira, and Ian give their four teams that didn't make the NFL […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49869045/eyetest_20220519_1221.mp3
  • Ep 109: Hall of Fame Voter Ed Bouchette Joins The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on May 12, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    Long time Steelers writer and current Hall of Fame voter, Ed Bouchette […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49776985/eyetest_ep109.mp3
  • Ep 108: Hall of Famer Bryant Young Returns To The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on May 6, 2022 at 1:45 am

    Pro Football Hall of Famer Bryant Young returns to the show to talk with […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49684364/eyetest_ep108.mp3
  • Ep 107: Pro Football HOF President Jim Porter Returns To The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on April 27, 2022 at 6:58 pm

    Clark and Ira are once again joined by the Pro Football Hall of Fame's […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49573230/eyetest_20220427_1213.mp3
  • Ep 106: Remembering Pat Tillman w/ Former Cardinals Coach Dave McGinnis
    by Full Press Coverage on April 21, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    Former Cardinals head coach Dave McGinnis joins Clark and Ira to remember […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49503417/eyetest_ep106.mp3
  • Ep 105: Who Are The Top 5 Quarterbacks of All Time?
    by Full Press Coverage on April 15, 2022 at 12:46 am

    Who is the most underrated quarterback of all time? The most overrated? […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49440179/eyetest_ep105.mp3
  • Ep 104: John McClain Joins The Show To Talk Retirement and Houston Sports
    by Full Press Coverage on April 8, 2022 at 2:50 am

    Former Texans beat reporter for the Houston Chronicle, John McClain, joins […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49361366/eyetest_ep104.mp3
  • Ep 103: Discussing The New NFL OT Rules With Upton Bell
    by Full Press Coverage on March 31, 2022 at 10:11 pm

    Former NFL executive Upton Bell joins Clark and Ian to discuss the latest […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49274896/20220331_1230_recording.mp3

Section 2

  • Ep 110: New Playoff Teams In 2022; Best Matchups On NFL Scehdule
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 3:42 am

    Clark, Ira, and Ian give their four teams that didn't make the NFL […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49869045/eyetest_20220519_1221.mp3
  • Ep 109: Hall of Fame Voter Ed Bouchette Joins The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on May 12, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    Long time Steelers writer and current Hall of Fame voter, Ed Bouchette […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49776985/eyetest_ep109.mp3
  • Ep 108: Hall of Famer Bryant Young Returns To The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on May 6, 2022 at 1:45 am

    Pro Football Hall of Famer Bryant Young returns to the show to talk with […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49684364/eyetest_ep108.mp3
  • Ep 107: Pro Football HOF President Jim Porter Returns To The Show
    by Full Press Coverage on April 27, 2022 at 6:58 pm

    Clark and Ira are once again joined by the Pro Football Hall of Fame's […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49573230/eyetest_20220427_1213.mp3
  • Ep 106: Remembering Pat Tillman w/ Former Cardinals Coach Dave McGinnis
    by Full Press Coverage on April 21, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    Former Cardinals head coach Dave McGinnis joins Clark and Ira to remember […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49503417/eyetest_ep106.mp3
  • Ep 105: Who Are The Top 5 Quarterbacks of All Time?
    by Full Press Coverage on April 15, 2022 at 12:46 am

    Who is the most underrated quarterback of all time? The most overrated? […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49440179/eyetest_ep105.mp3
  • Ep 104: John McClain Joins The Show To Talk Retirement and Houston Sports
    by Full Press Coverage on April 8, 2022 at 2:50 am

    Former Texans beat reporter for the Houston Chronicle, John McClain, joins […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49361366/eyetest_ep104.mp3
  • Ep 103: Discussing The New NFL OT Rules With Upton Bell
    by Full Press Coverage on March 31, 2022 at 10:11 pm

    Former NFL executive Upton Bell joins Clark and Ian to discuss the latest […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49274896/20220331_1230_recording.mp3

Section

  • Ep 60: #KrejciForever and Raised Expectations
    by Full Press Coverage on May 4, 2021 at 9:23 pm

    Ian and Chris talk about the Bruins post trade deadline turnaround and […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://anchor.fm/s/cc094d0/podcast/play/32832621/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2021-4-4%2F5fff8870-3e65-c0ca-e920-87f009fd80b8.mp3
  • Ep 59: Bruins Swing Big At Trade Deadline
    by Full Press Coverage on April 12, 2021 at 9:48 pm

    Ian and Chris welcome in Mike Cratty to discuss the trade acquisitions of […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://anchor.fm/s/cc094d0/podcast/play/31287822/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2021-3-12%2Ff58714b8-6022-3934-eaa5-6290cfb68d8c.mp3
  • Ep 58: Chris' Trip To TD Garden, Bruins Trade Target Goes Elsewhere, Injuries, and the Capitals
    by Full Press Coverage on April 8, 2021 at 6:33 pm

    Ian and Chris discuss Blackey's return to the Garden, the Islanders trade […]

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://anchor.fm/s/cc094d0/podcast/play/30997504/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2021-3-8%2Ff5ad8b3a-4858-ae42-2228-24fde2fee0c2.mp3
  • Ep 9: Wildly Early Predictions Of The 2022 Patriots Schedule
    by Full Press Coverage on May 23, 2022 at 3:24 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV6815254013.mp3?updated=1653276596
  • Ep 114: Paul London
    by Full Press Coverage on May 21, 2022 at 2:00 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV8237417395.mp3?updated=1653077871
  • The Pick and Roll NBA Podcast W/ Jet and Sap - EP 180 - Celtics Big Response In Game 2 + Eliminated Teams Post Mortems
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49881443/pick_5_20.mp3
  • Ep 131: Packers Fan Series with LosDeeMix
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 8:49 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV9645781276.mp3?updated=1653080067
  • 5/20 - Tampa Bay Lightning; Celtics Blow Out Heat
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 1:41 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV4160446735.mp3?updated=1653054589
  • The Game talks about Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom as well as Yankees and ROY Talk
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 1:04 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49876001/the_game_scherzer.mp3
  • Ep 110: New Playoff Teams In 2022; Best Matchups On NFL Scehdule
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 3:42 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49869045/eyetest_20220519_1221.mp3
  • Ep 231: Sons of Dynasty Drafts
    by Full Press Coverage on May 19, 2022 at 9:28 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV2459883898.mp3?updated=1652996111
  • Episode 48 Criss Partee Analysis and reaction to Game 1s of the NBA Conference Finals
    by Full Press Coverage on May 19, 2022 at 6:50 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49857290/the_courtside_crossover_episode_48.mp3
  • Ep. 253: Storm Rolls Into Atlanta
    by Full Press Coverage on May 19, 2022 at 12:50 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/G481GD/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV4987676978.mp3?updated=1652919968
  • Celtics Rebound In Game Two; Series Heads To Boston
    by Full Press Coverage on May 21, 2022 at 11:00 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49878652/fpcradio_5_20_celticsheatnba.mp3
  • Lightning On Way To A Three-Peat? (5/20)
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 4:18 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49878600/fpcradio_5_20_lightningnhl.mp3
  • 5/20 - Tampa Bay Lightning; Celtics Blow Out Heat
    by Full Press Coverage on May 20, 2022 at 1:41 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49877345/adv8008062838.mp3
  • 5/16 - Celtics Advance; Jayson Tatum; Golden State; NBA Playoffs
    by Full Press Coverage on May 17, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49833358/adv7848941251.mp3
  • NFL Schedule Release Reaction (5/13)
    by Full Press Coverage on May 14, 2022 at 10:45 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49787037/fpcradiolive_5_13_nflschedule.mp3
  • Tom Brady's New Broadcasting Deal (5/13)
    by Full Press Coverage on May 13, 2022 at 9:45 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49786949/fpcradio_5_13_bradyfox.mp3
  • Celtics, Bucks Game Six, NBA Playoffs, Joel Embiid and James Harden (5/13)
    by Full Press Coverage on May 13, 2022 at 3:38 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49786913/fpcradio_5_13_celticsnba.mp3
  • 5/13 - NBA Playoffs, Tom Brady's New Deal, NFL Schedule Release
    by Full Press Coverage on May 13, 2022 at 3:21 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49787847/adv3909795266.mp3
  • 5/9 - NBA Playoffs; Officiating In Professional Sports
    by Full Press Coverage on May 9, 2022 at 5:46 pm

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49731202/adv7303186962.mp3
  • Celtics Tie The Series Against Bucks
    by Full Press Coverage on May 6, 2022 at 1:52 am

    Your browser does not support the audio element. But you can check this for the original link: https://pdcn.co/e/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/49684393/fpcradio_5_4_celtics.mp3

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