The Toronto Maple Leafs enter next season with every franchise’s favorite problem – an overwhelming amount of NHL-caliber roster players.
Training camp battles will undoubtedly be fierce – with only Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Zach Hyman as the true locks for consistent top-six looks on the wing.
How does everyone else stack up? This exercise will rank the top-15 currently-signed winger within the Leafs organization. The only notable exclusions from the forward group (aka the centers) are Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Joe Thornton, and Travis Boyd.
Some may ask about Rodion Amirov, who would certainly make this list IF he was officially signed. Alex Kerfoot and Jason Spezza have spent enough time on the wing to warrant inclusion.
Rankings
1) Mitch Marner
2) William Nylander
3) Zach Hyman
4) Alex Kerfoot
5) Ilya Mikheyev
6) Nick Robertson
7) Jimmy Vesey
8) Wayne Simmonds
9) Pierre Engvall
10) Jason Spezza
11) Denis Malgin
12) Kenny Agostino
13) Nic Petan
14) Yegor Korshkov
15) Alex Barabanov
Analysis
1) Mitch Marner
2) William Nylander
Naturally, these two are pretty self-explanatory. A lot of users on Hockey Twitter would probably rank Nylander lower, but let’s not.
3) Zach Hyman
4) Alex Kerfoot
Hyman just narrowly beat out Kerfoot for the third spot. Although they are entirely different players stylistically speaking, their point production has been similar – around 40 points per season.
Kerfoot took a bit of a step back last season – his first year with the Leafs (65 games played, nine goals, 28 points); whereas Hyman took a step forward (51 games played, 21 goals, 37 points) giving him the edge.
Both bring some solid versatility to the lineup. Each has contributed amicably on special teams with Kerfoot also able to play center if necessary.
5) Ilya Mikheyev
Mikheyev won fans over quickly, as the ‘Souperman’ exploded onto the scene in his abbreviated rookie year (39 games played, eight goals, 23 points) before going down with a season-ending injury in late December.
He was able to come back for the play-in series against the Columbus Blue Jackets, thanks to the delay. Unfortunately, he would end up being a non-factor through five games, failing to record a point.
A lot of fans have Soupy penciled in on the second line with Tavares and Nylander – a line he looked great on last season. But has he officially earned that spot? No. But he does have the potential to overtake Hyman and/or Kerfoot by year’s end.
6) Nick Robertson
From this part of the rankings onwards, a lot of flip-flopping could take place.
Despite his age and lack of NHL experience, it’s hard to debate that any of the wingers below are as good as Robertson. Even at this very moment.
You could make the argument for some of them, but Robertson’s puck skills and shot alone vault him above the rest, in my eyes. He may not make the team this year unless he forces their hand with a great camp. With that being said, he could likely outproduce many if not all of the forwards ranked below him if afforded the same TOI opportunity.
Even so, he can be sent back to the OHL for another year without penalty – a roster move the Leafs will likely be forced to make. They make opt to give him a longer look, as he can play nine regular season games without burning a year of his ELC.
7) Jimmy Vesey
8) Wayne Simmonds
Deciding how to order these two players was a bit difficult, but youth and upside were in favour of Vesey in the end.
Vesey had an off-year last season (64 games played, nine goals, 20 points) and came to the Leafs as a bit of a bargain bin project, but he’s still more than capable of producing 20-30 points at worst.
For Simmonds, 20-30 points is at best. Naturally, Toronto hopes to get as high as 40 points from each of these players – something Vesey is a lot more likely to do. Vesey hasn’t been known to oft-use his size to his advantage, which Simmonds specializes in.
Similar to the Hyman/Kerfoot duo, these two players could potentially produce around the same amount of points while bringing different style of play and intangible skills to the table. The kind of lineup diversity Leaf fans have been praying for.
9) Pierre Engvall
10) Jason Spezza
11) Denis Malgin
It feels a bit strange to put Engvall above Spezza – a rookie above a veteran with 940 career points. At 37 years old, it’s hard to say what Spezza will be able to provide the Leafs this season – despite the fact that he was productive in limited action last year (58 games played, nine goals, 25 points).
Engvall had a somewhat decent rookie year (48 games played, eight goals, 15 points). His biggest problem was remaining consistent, as he started hot (14 points in his first 27 games) before recording just one point in his final 21 games.
Although he finished last season cold, Engvall is still only 24 years old and has a fairly decent offensive ceiling. If given consistent playing time, he will likely outscore Spezza en route to being a solid bottom-six player – but that’s a big IF following all of the acquisitions up front.
Denis Malgin hasn’t exactly been a star in his NHL career thus far, but 60 points in 192 career games in a depth role is pretty decent considering he’s still only 23 years old. It’s hard to envision his pathway to consistent playing time unless there’s an injury, but he’s certainly a solid 11th option.
12) Kenny Agostino
13) Nic Petan
14) Yegor Korshkov
15) Alex Barabanov
These final four players all have potential upside, but still find themselves very far down the depth chart. Agostino has experienced the most NHL success of the four, which is good but also isn’t saying much considering Korshkov and Barabanov have one game of combined NHL experience.
Still, eight goals and 30 points over 85 sporadic games is perfectly fine for a hard-nosed bottom-six forward like Agostino – especially if he’s a fourth liner. He could even be ranked higher than Malgin, but that didn’t feel right given that he’s five years older with less than half as much big league experience.
His most recent NHL experience was 63 games split between the Montreal Canadiens and the New Jersey Devils during the 2018-19 season – recording a respectable 24 points.
He was no slouch with the Toronto Marlies (AHL) last season either, posting 27 goals and 49 points over 53 games. The Leafs really do have some great depth considering he’s their 12th option.
Petan really hasn’t impressed anyone across 129 NHL games to date (six goals, 27 points), but he’s still fairly young at 25 years old and had a solid short season with the Marlies (25 games played, 10 goals, 31 points).
He trumps Korshkov and Barabanov right now, although either could supersede him by season’s end.
Leaf fans have always been a bit sour towards Korshkov ever since he was drafted in favor of a more popular option – Alex DeBrincat. Korshkov will likely never be as good as DeBrincat, but he has been developing at a nice pace and could prove to be an effective, middle-six player in the NHL someday soon.
He’s also played one NHL game and already has one NHL goal, not a bad start. Like every player at this point of the rankings, it will be very tough for him to carve out a role with the Leafs – but it’s nice to have him. There could be more roster spots available ahead of the 2021-22 season, if he can hang tight.
Barabanov is an interesting option, because he has the best chance of making the team from this group despite being ranked last on this list. The only reason he’s so low is because he’s the most unproven.
The skill has clearly been there at the KHL level – which historically has and hasn’t meant anything depending on which player you’re talking about.
What makes him most intriguing is the fact that he’s on a one-year contract, with a European assignment clause allowing him to head back overseas if he doesn’t make the Leafs.
Training camp is going to be more important for him than for any other forward on this roster. He wouldn’t have decided to come over if he wasn’t legitimately in the running for a spot.
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