What's the worst-case scenario for the Washington Football Team in 2021?

The hype surrounding the Washington Football Team as we inch closer to the 2021 season is at a level reminiscent of the offseason prior to 2016.

It was Kirk Cousins’ second season as the team’s starting quarterback (I know, it feels like ages ago). But the excitement isn’t without good reason: The team is fully in second-year head coach Ron Rivera’s control. It’s a more-than-refreshing change of pace for the Burgundy and Gold faithful, who suffered an unbearable stint with former general manager Bruce Allen calling the shots.

With a roster that is both competitive and deep all the way around, fans haven’t taken any time in raising the standards for Washington. In a fan survey from The Athletic, roughly 41% of respondents said that a return to the playoffs would qualify the upcoming campaign as a success, while around 24% said winning a playoff game would do the trick.

Normally, you’d think a 7-9 made-the-playoffs-because-someone-had-to team wouldn’t have too lofty of expectations heading into the following season… but this is the Washington Football Team for goodness sakes. There’s no more room for patience.

Washington Football Team head coach Ron Rivera / Getty Images

And while the goals The Athletic’s respondents have set out for the WFT are very much in reach, historic precedent tells us that it’s not uncommon for its fans to be let down and heartbroken come Wild Card Weekend. There’s a combination of factors that would contribute to a repeat of this potential outcome, and I feel its important — both as a journalist and fan — to outline exactly what it would take for 2021 to be a ‘disappointment’ for this team.

Another Quarterback Carousel

Right off the bat, we rip off a band-aid that’s been reapplied far too often for Washington. When the team signed veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick as its first splash in free agency, the consensus was split on how effective the move would be for the team’s offensive production. In fact, many aren’t sure whether he’s a lock for the starting job as most experts assumed after the announcement of the signing. With numerous reports out of OTAs saying that last season’s late signee and one-off playoff hero Taylor Heinicke outplayed Fitzpatrick, there’s a growing sense that a true quarterback battle will take shape in training camp.

Of course, there’s also Kyle Allen, who has served as Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s go-to backup. While he isn’t in contention for the starting job at this moment, he’s proven to be at least somewhat reliable on the field.

With three quarterbacks with similar production history, the WFT is in a unique position: The room is deep with guys who can play above average at best, but none of them are true difference makers — which could either be one of the team’s biggest strengths or the cause of its downfall. And if there’s a repeat of the inconsistency at quarterback fans saw this past season, the latter will become the most apt description. If that’s the case, a return to the postseason — considering the brutal 17-game schedule that awaits — is highly unlikely.

Rivera and company must get the starting quarterback decision right the first time. If they don’t, things could go downhill in a hurry.

Swept by a Divisional Rival

Yes, I hate to bring it up. But in a division that will once again hinge on these crucial divisional matchups, Washington getting swept by any of its three rivals simply won’t get the job done for Rivera’s squad.

And for the past three seasons, the Giants have had their way with the WFT. In 2020, the two games were decided by a total of four points, including a controversial two-point conversion attempt (in lieu of forcing overtime) that went awry. With an upgraded offense and the return of a defense that is sure to cause the turnover-plagued Daniel Jones to give the ball away, it’s hard to not see the WFT at the very least splitting the series — if not sweeping New York.

However, the Giants are a steadily improving and well-coached team that could easily force a repeat of last season’s heartbreaks.

Expecting Washington to toy the Cowboys around the way they did this past season with 25-3 and 41-16 poundings is simply unrealistic. With the return of Dak Prescott — who is 7-1 against the WFT — and the hiring of former Seahawks defensive coordinator and Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to lead Dallas’ defensive unit, the most historic rivalry in the NFL will finally make a return to its glory days: A high-powered, electric Cowboys offense squaring off with a stout, top-tier Washington defense.

These are the games that’ll be determined by two or three plays — and in turn will determine the course of each team’s season.

Finding a worst-case scenario for the team’s matchups with the Eagles is quite difficult. These are games the WFT should win handily, as Philadelphia will feature a bottom-five roster heading into the season. However, the challenge in these matchups will be the timing of them, as both games will take place in the last five weeks of the campaign.

The race for the division crown will undoubtedly be heavily contested by that point, and Washington will need to take care of business.

The Lack of a Number Two at RB

Antonio Gibson was without question one of the team’s most explosive offensive playmakers in 2020. However, the depth behind him at the running back position was questionable at best. J.D. McKissic carried most of the load when Gibson went down with an injury late in the season, but he doesn’t possess the ability to be an every-down back. And as we’re seeing with plenty of the heavy-hitting contenders (most notably the Browns), having two reliable three-down backs — especially with question marks aplenty at quarterback — is the key to keeping the offense efficient when the passing game isn’t clicking.

Washington Football Team running back J.D. McKissic / NFL

The no. 3 at this moment is Peyton Barber, who found his niche as a third-and-short/goal line back. Lamar Miller was a midseason signing this past season, and could emerge as a more preferable third option. Jaret Patterson was signed as an undrafted free agent following April’s draft and showed flashes in OTAs of a “Darren Sproles-type skillset,” as Rivera said.

The bottom line is that the position (for my taste, at least) is far too shallow. It’s a room with one emerging star followed by a bunch of average, fill-out-the-roster guys. There’s still plenty of time for another signing, but if this is what the WFT chooses to roll into the season with, I’ll be scratching my head.

Defining ‘Disappointment’

Now, let me answer the overlying question that all this culminates to: What would be considered a disappointing season? It’s actually pretty straightforward and is in direct correlation with the survey from The Athletic — it’s missing the playoffs.

Coming off a season as special as 2020 was, not being able to follow it up with another postseason trip would feel like a hefty letdown after all the roster improvements that were made by a revamped front office. Sure, Dallas is going to be much better than this past season. And, sure, the Giants look as dangerous as ever. But this is where organizations take the next step. Can Washington keep pace with the elites of the NFL? Can Washington win the close, tough games? Can Washington prove it wasn’t a fluke?

These are the questions that will make-or-break the Washington Football Team’s 2021 campaign. Let’s just hope we don’t have to revisit this conversation following week 18.