Bengals Preview: Week 4 vs Jacksonville

Week 3 of the NFL season showcased so many storylines, it’s almost impossible to keep track of them all. Justin Tucker downed Detroit with a record-breaking 66 yard field goal. Kansas City surrendered a late lead to the Chargers, in the process falling below .500 for the first time in 5 years. The Rams thoroughly dominated Tampa Bay to run their record to 3-0. The Sunday night contest between Green Bay and San Francisco featured 27 fourth-quarter points and went to the wire. The Bengals, on the other hand, quietly suffocated their opponent well before the game got to that point.

Their offense wasn’t amazing; they made plays when needed, but that was about it. Meanwhile, the defense shined in just about every aspect. They did give up a couple lengthy drives, but when you force more turnovers than you allow touchdowns – as the Bengals did – you’ll be in good shape. Now, they prepare for a struggling Jaguars team on a short week.

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Injury Report

Bengals
OUT: S Jessie Bates III, WR Tee Higgins
DOUBTFUL: CB Chidobe Awuzie, OL Xavier Su’a-Filo
ALSO LISTED: OL Riley Reiff, LB Markus Bailey, CB Trae Waynes, CB Darius Phillips

Jaguars
OUT: DL Roy Robertson-Harris, K Josh Lambo
ALSO LISTED: CB Tre Herndon, OL Cam Robinson, OL Andrew Norwell

Odds & Betting Lines

LINE: JAX +270, CIN -340
OVER/UNDER: 46.0
SPREAD: CIN -7.5

Key Points

Jaguars

The Jaguars, at least so far, are simply not very good. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in points scored (17.7 per game, 27th), points allowed (30.3 per game, 28th), passing offense (211 yards per game, 28th), passing defense (302 yards per game, 28th), and turnover differential (-8, 32nd), all per Pro Football Reference. That’s a lot of weaknesses for one team to overcome, even with a talent like Trevor Lawrence on your roster.

Speaking of Lawrence, he’s struggled to adjust to the NFL so far. Granted, he’s faced a pair of certifiably tough defenses in Denver and Arizona along with an improved Houston Texans unit; even so, Lawrence’s numbers thus far don’t inspire confidence. He ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (54.2%) and is tied with Zach Wilson for the most interceptions thrown (7) according to PFR. He does have some highlight-reel throws to his name, but he’s got a mistake to match seemingly each one.

The one bright spot for Jacksonville that isn’t WR/return specialist Jamal Agnew is that James Robinson finally found his stride against Arizona. He and Carlos Hyde are a tough duo; neither are necessarily huge play threats, but both are more than capable of grinding you down over 60 minutes. Robinson, much like Najee Harris, needs more help from his linemen to increase his production this season, but he’ll get his if given the opportunity.

Bengals

The Bengals offense last week was what I described the Steelers as before the game: opportunistic. They engineered exactly one non-scoring drive that lasted more than 3 plays. It started with a 27 yard run by Joe Mixon, but the Bengals only gained 3 more yards before punting. That worked against the Steelers; it very likely won’t work again – even against the lowly Jaguars. However, Joe Burrow was smart with the ball and didn’t make any crushing mistakes. If he can keep that up, the scoring drives will come.

The defense led the way against Pittsburgh and should be expected to do the same this week. Logan Wilson had a monster game with 14(!) total tackles, 2 pass breakups, and 2 interceptions(!) to lead the effort. The pass rush got to Ben Roethlisberger for 4 sacks from 4 different players. Of course, Lawrence is more mobile than Roethlisberger, so the rush will have to contain him on the outside. He’s also a bigger downfield threat – some of his best throws have been downfield strikes. That said, if the Bengals front applies pressure in the same way it has all season so far, there’s a good chance the mistakes will come.

The Bengals depth will see a test with Bates out and Awuzie doubtful. However, they look to be getting Trae Waynes back, which should stabilize the corner position. Meanwhile, Brandon Wilson should see time at safety alongside Vonn Bell in Bates’ absence. Expect Lawrence to look his way early and often to test his coverage and playmaking abilities. So long as the Bengals don’t get repeatedly burned over the top by D.J. Chark and Marvin Jones, they should be fine.

Prediction

Lawrence is already showing significant struggle in the NFL, and a short week against a good Bengals defense shouldn’t change that. The Bengals will have to move the ball better than they did in Pittsburgh, but the Jaguars’ defense isn’t well equipped to slow them down in the passing game, even with Tee Higgins missing another game. Barring another injury or Lawrence rediscovering his Clemson form, the Bengals should roll.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Jaguars 13

– Chris Railsback is a contributing writer for the Bengals at Full Press Coverage.