Goal-Line Guide Week 4

During the previous couple of seasons, I wrote a series called Red Zone Report. It was an attempt to showcase the players who were getting the most red-zone opportunities, both on the ground and through the air. However, this year want to focus mainly on opportunities from inside the 5-yard line. Instead of the Red Zone Report, the series will shift to become the Goal-line Guide.

One of the biggest changes in my approach is to turn my attention toward team attempts rather than focusing on individual players. I want to find the teams with the most success and with the most opportunities inside the 5-yard line. Which teams are in a position to run goal-line plays on offense. Also, I want to know which defenses are more susceptible to allowing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line, and which units have been stopping opponents from scoring.

Combining offensive opportunities and defensive efficiency, I hope to find a better way to predict TD production. So far in 2021, there has been a noticeable difference in TD rate just between total red-zone plays and total goal-line plays.

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First, we will look strickly at red-zone opportunities, meaning any play where the offense snaps the football inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Through 3 weeks of the NFL season, 17% of red zone carries, and 26% of red-zone pass attempts, have gone for touchdowns. Those numbers rise dramatically when looking inside the 5-yard line. For goal-line plays, 47% of rushing attempts and 56% of passes thrown have resulted in touchdowns.

For the Goal-line Guide, I will showcase several scenarios where I believe there is a higher probability of touchdowns being scored. In terms of process, I look for offenses that have had larger opportunities to either run or throw the football inside the 5-yard line so far this season. Then I look at defenses that have allowed goal-line touchdowns again separating ground and air attempts. Finally, I compare the weekly matchups, using the Vegas over/under line and implied team totals to look at where points are expected to be scored. What results is what I refer to as a Goal-Line Grade for the week.

In terms of specifics here are four situations in Week 4 that could lead to massive goal-line production. Also included are the respective Goal-Line Grade. For Week 4, the NFL Goal-Line Gradess ranged from 119.25 to 18. You will see the highest likelihood of a TD here in this article. For reference sake, the Giants passing attack received the 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass Catchers

Goal-LIne Grade: 119.25

So far this season, the Buccaneers have found success in the red zone, specifically passing near the goal-line. Tampa has snapped the ball 9 times inside the opponent’s 5-yard line; 3 runs and 6 throws. Out of those passing attempts, five have been scores.

Throwing from inside the 5, Tom Brady is 5-for-5 in terms of touchdowns when targetting Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski. It is those three pass-catchers that I want to highlight specifically. With Gronkowski’s Week 4 status up in the air, I believe it will be a great week for both Evans and Godwin.

For the Patriots side, the defense has not been tested all that much inside the 5 yet this season. So far they have only faced one play near the goal-line. It was a pass attempt and New England did allow a TD. Couple this with the Buccaneers tendency to pass more than run near the goal-line, I would say Brady is one of the safest (if not the safest) quarterbacks to throw a TD pass this week. That should bode well especially for Evans who is somewhat TD dependant. I believe this can be a week where Evans is a Top 10 WR.

Kansas City Chiefs Running

Goal-line Grade: 109.25

I think it will be a week where the Chiefs can score multiple rushing touchdowns. Defensively, from inside the 5-yard line, the Eagles have allowed 4 socres on the ground but only 1 through the air. That is on almost an equal split in opportunity (7 run plays, 5 pass plays). In theory, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be line for a productive fantasy game. However, he has not been used inside the 5-yard lien yet this season. So far, those opportunities have gone to Darrel Williams, or Patrick Mahomes keeping it himself. This is in spite of the fact that Edwards-Healire leads Kansa City in red zone carries so far this year.

Certainly, this is a key week for Edwards-Helaire. It really comes down to if he can get goal-line opportunities. If he does and can capitalize by punching one into the end zone, then he will likely gain the trust of the coaching staff for additional rushing attempts inside the 5. If not, it may be Williams’ job for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps this is surprising or not, but through four weeks of the NFL season, the Cheifs have only had 4 plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. It may be because of their ability to score from far. But there are only seven teams who have snapped the ball less inside the 5.

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Seattle Seahawks Ground Game

Goal-line Grade: 104.75

One of those teams previously mentioned is Seattle. They have only run two plays from inside the 5-yard line, both of them on the ground. This bodes well in particular for Chris Carson who has received both of those carries, and converted them into two touchdowns.

Defensively, the 49ers have allowed 3 rushing scores, and 2 touchdowns through the air from inside their own 5-yard line. So technically, they have been more vulnerable on the ground near the goal-line. Again, the Seahawks seem to prefer to run when up close. I think those odds go up after both of their top wide receivers got banged up last week. Now it is expected everyone will play in Week 4, but I don’t see Seattle taking many chances. I expect a large workload from Carson, with good TD upside this week.

Baltimore Ravens Rushing

Goal-Line Grade: 101.25

This one might be a little tricky. In Week 4, the Ravens only have an implied total of around 22 points this week. The key will be getting into the red zone and specifically near the goal-line. If they get there, I fully expect Baltimore to run the football. So far this season, the Ravens have not thrown a pass attempt from inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. On the other side, none of their first three opponents have thrown the ball inside the 5 on the Broncos defense. In fact, Denver’s defense has only been on the field for one snap inside their own 5-yard line. It was a rushing attempt that ended in a TD.

Now the difficult aspect with the Ravens is who will be running the football? For starters, Lamar Jackson has had 3 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line so far this season. That already eclipses his 2020 total of 2 goal-line carries. Clearly, Baltimore feels more comfortable letting Jackson keep the football than they did last season. Latavius Murray and Ty’Son Williams have each received 1 rushing attempt inside the 5. Murray scored on his chance while Williams did not. We shall see if that makes a difference. Either way, odds are that it is the QB who produced a TD on the ground for the Ravens.

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 4. Also, shout out to 4for4 and NFL Savant for all of the Red Zone data. Be sure to check all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.