The highly anticipated return of Tom Brady to New England is upon us as the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. However, the return of the greatest quarterback of all time is just one storyline of many for the Patriots who are trying to avoid a 1-3 start to the season under rookie signal-caller, Mac Jones.
Under Brady, the Buccaneers come into the game as one of the best offenses in the league. Brady leads the NFL with 10 touchdowns passes and has 1,087 yards, second to only Derek Carr of the Raiders. In their loss to the Rams a week ago, the Buccaneers’ streak of consecutive games scoring at least 30 points ended at nine games… an NFL record. However, the Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball to the point that Brady was also the team’s leading rusher against the Rams in week three. In addition, the team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski who has looked more like his early Patriot self through three games before suffering a rib injury.
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The good news for the Patriots is the Bucs are very one-dimensional on offense. The bad news? That dimension is all they really need with Brady at the helm and guys like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown available to catch passes. It goes without saying that the Patriots need to get pressure on Brady with no more than four rushers but, most importantly, the secondary has to create multiple turnovers in this game to stand a chance. The absence of Gronkowski helps. The addition of Stephon Gilmore would help more but that, of course, is not going to happen.
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If the Patriots are able to create more possessions through turnovers, that is where New England can take advantage. The Buccaneers are coming into the game allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw, on average, 343 yards per game. Essentially, quarterbacks turn into 2021 Tom Brady when they play the Bucs. Tampa has been without starter Sean Murphy-Bunting since he dislocated his elbow in week one. They will also be with Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis is questionable heading into Sunday. Newly signed Richard Sherman will likely be thrust into a pretty big role in his debut.
The Buccaneers still have one of the league’s best run defenses manned by the likes of Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. Not great considering the Patriots, much like the Bucs, have issues running the ball made even worse with the loss of James White to season-ending injured reserve. Jones, just like Brady, led his team in rushing in week three. Not something you want to become a pattern but it may not matter much because the Patriots are going to need to win this game on Mac Jones’ arm.
Jones had 51 pass attempts a week ago and you could see him approach that number again this week. Not only will Jones need to keep pace with the Bucs offense but Tampa’s weakness is clearly in the secondary and the only way the Patriots can keep them on their heels. In order to do that, the Patriots’ high-priced tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, have to start making plays for their young quarterback. Through three games, the returns have been disappointing for the duo as they have been plagued by drops and general ineffectiveness. The Patriots should also get a boost with the return of 2019 first-rounder, N’Keal Harry who was activated off the PUP list on Saturday.
Despite his three interceptions against the Saints, Jones has done a relatively good job of protecting the football. He hasn’t been asked to do too much but has shown a knack for staying poise and making plays when things don’t go as planned. He, much like the rest of the offense, will need to start scoring more touchdowns, something they have struggled to do early on as they have regularly left points on the field. As Patriots fans know all too well, you don’t beat a Brady-led team with field goals.
Sunday is no different. If the Patriots want to avoid becoming the 32nd team to fall to Tom Brady, they will need their new quarterback to carry the load.