Goal-Line Guide Week 5

It’s all about the Touchdowns! The Goal-Line Guide gives grades to all the NFL teams for both their rushing and passing offenses, specifically for plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. The goal is to better predict touchdowns for fantasy football purposes. This is Goal-Line Guide Week 5.

Perhaps not the best premiere of the Goal-Line Guide in Week 4. The highest graded team, the Buccaneers passing game, failed to score a touchdown. The team did not even get the ball inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. However, I will once again tout that unit as they carry the second-highest Goal-Line Grade for Week 5. With 108, the Tampa Bay pass catchers have another solid chance to score touchdowns in Week 5. So far this season, the Buccaneers lead the NFL with 5 passing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line.

There are some other highly graded units in the Goal-Line Guide. Some may surprise. In Week 5, the Goal-Line Grades vary from 109 to 22.25. That low score belongs to the 49ers passing game, which has 0 touchdowns inside the 5 yard-line this season. Also, their opponent, (the Cardinals) have not allowed a passing TD defensively inside their own 5-yard line.

Here are five Goal-Line Guide targets in Week 5.

New York Jets Air Attack

Goal-Line Grade: 109

We will start with a surprise right off the bat. The Jets of all teams? Yes, the Jets passing game has the highest Goal-Line grade of Week 5. A major factor is their opponent, the Falcons, who have allowed 3 passing touchdowns from inside their own 5-yard line. Only two teams in the NFL (Buccaneers, and Giants) have surrendered more goal-line passing scores.

This may enter narrative street territory but there is also the fact that this game will be played in London. With two rookie head coaches, who knows how either team will react. I know I am expecting big things from the Jets pass-catchers, Jamison Crowder in particular. In his 2021 debut, Crowder saw 5 red-zone targets, including a TD pass from the 3-yard line. Already, it appears the young QB Zach Wilson trusts Crowder. He is one of the few players in this London game that I am starting with confidence.

That being said, the TE Ryan Griffin could be a good option for those who stream the position. Griffin actually leads the Jets in targets from inside the 10-yard line. This could also be a productive week for Corey Davis so you can start him if needed.

Because this is an early game on Sunday, I would not place any Jets or Falcons players in the flex spot. Instead move them to the RB, WR or TE spots to allow for better flexibility later on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars Ground Game

Goal-Line Grade: 105.75

Last week, the Jaguars rushing game had the second-highest Goal-Line Grade of Week 4. They certainly paid off as James Robinson scored a pair of touchdowns. He looks to be in a good spot to repeat that type of production in Week 5 due in part to the team the Jaguars are facing. The Titans defense has been particularly vulnerable on the ground. So far this season, they have allowed 3 rushing scores on 3 attempts from inside the 5-yard line.

While Robinson has not gotten nearly all the RB work, as he did in 2020, he is still getting the opportunity in an important spot. Through 4 games of the 2021 season, Robinson has two-thirds of Jacksonville’s carries from inside the 5-yard line. If he continues that trend, look for him to find the end zone against Tennessee.

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Cleveland Browns Rushing

Goal-Line Grade: 102.5

Every game it seems that either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt scores a TD. Legit, in all four contests that the Browns have played in, the RB duo has accounted for at least 1 rushing TD. With a league-leading 6 rushing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line, look for the Browns to strike gold again.

Now, it is not always Chubb or Hunt finding the end-zone. Cleveland is creative with who gets to carries the ball near the goal-line. And not just the half-backs either. FB Andy Janovich, WR Jarvis Landry, and even QB Baker Mayfield have scored rushing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line.

Chubb is an every-week starter anyway. However, Hunt has also joined him in that distinction. Especially this week against the Chargers. So far in 2021, they are one of only four teams to allow a rushing TD on 100% of the attempts they face defensively from inside their own 5-yard line.

Kansas City Chiefs Passing

Goal-Line Grade: 100.5

If you look atop the Chiefs leaders in red-zone targets, you will find the two obvious suspects, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill has 4, but tied with the star tight end is Mecole Hardman who also has 3 red-zone targets so far this season. Hill and Kelce are must-starts every week, but this might be the best matchup to play Hardman. The game against the Bills has the highest over/under of Week 5 at 56.5 points. There will likely be a lot of touchdowns. Time to trust Hardman.

Kansas City’s Goal-Line grade for rushing this week is 67. Much lower than the passing game grade at 100.5. However, Clyde Edwards-Helaire will still be useful this week. Alongside Hill, Edwards-Helaire is leading the Chiefs with 2 targets from inside the 5-yard line.

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Miami Dolphins Passing

Goal-Line Grade: 96.5

The Dolphins graded out with a pretty good Goal-Line score. At least through the air. Miami’s rushing Goal-Line Grade, however, is not looking great all the way down at 39 for Week 5. The discrepancy of 60.5 is one of the largest in the league this week.

As with most goal-line grades, the opponent looms large. The Buccaneers have not allowed a rushing TD from inside the 5-yard line all season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has surrendered 4 passing touchdowns through the air. The Dolphins themselves have been more efficient throwing near the goal-line than running. So far this season, Miami has scored on 75% of their passing attempts inside the 5-yard line, while only 40% of their goal-line carries have resulted in a TD.

This should be a good week have Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker, and Jaylen Waddle. They are the only three players on the Dolphins to receive a target inside the 5-yard line. If the goal-line guide holds true, at least one of them will score a TD this week.

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 5. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.