Goal-Line Guide Week 6

This is Goal-Line Guide Week 6, part of a series of articles attempting to best predict weekly touchdown scoring.

In Week 5, the Chiefs passing game had a Goal-Line Grade of 100.6. Here in Week 6, they are again among the most elevated aerial attacks in that department with a Goal-Line Grade of 106. Find out some more Goal-Line Grades below. In Week 6, the Grades range from 114.75 to 26.5. Here are six situations to target in Week 6.

Baltimore Ravens Air Attack

Goal-line Grade: 114.75

We begin with the best Goal-Line Grade in Week 6; the Ravens passing game. First off, many may expect Baltimore to be a run-heavy team. However, inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, the Ravens have been far more efficient through the air with 75% of their passing attempts going for touchdowns. Compare that to only 38% of Ravens rushing attempts from inside the 5 ending in touchdowns. Furthermore, factor in the defense and you have a recipe for passing scores. The Chargers are one of only three teams in the NFL to allow a TD on every pass attempt they have facing inside their own 5-yard line. Spoiler alert: the other two teams will be mentioned later in this article.

In terms of what players to target specifically, it has to go to the duo of Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. They are both leading Baltimore with 6 red-zone targets. More specifically they each have 2 targets inside the 5-yard line. No other Ravens receiver has seen a target near the goal-line.

Cincinnati Bengals Passing Game

Gaal-Line Grade: 112.75

Coming in at a close second this week is the Bengals air attack. At this point in his young career, Ja’Marr Chase has shown enough to be an every-week starter. However, one thing missing from his resume is a goal-line target. Chase has yet to see a target inside the 5-yard line. That is why in DFS specifically, the better play might be Tee Higgins. Especially after Chase had a monster performance in Week 5, his rostership may be rather elevated this week. The best pivot may be the big-bodied Higgins who only produced 32 yards last week. As for season-long, I would feel fairly confident playing Higgins or Tyler Boyd in Week 6.

Cowboys @ Patriots Passing

New England Patriots Goal-Line Grade: 106.25

Dallas Cowboys Goal-Line Grade: 105.25

Both teams in the Cowboys @ Patriots matchup have some of the best Goal-Line passing grades this week. To be exact both are in the top 5 overall for Week 6. Starting with New England, the player who leads the team in red-zone targets and targets from inside the 5-yard line is Jonnu Smith. However, from a pure production standpoint, he has been a disappointment with only 1 TD through 5 weeks and less than 50 receiving yards in every game. Meanwhile, Hunter Henry is coming off of double-digit fantasy performances and appears to be the one to start with confidence. Personally, I would play either Patriots TE in DFS, and in season-long leagues (especially deeper leagues). Oe of the biggest reason is that the Cowboys are one of those 3 teams mentioned earlier that has surrendered a TD on every pass attempt from inside their 5-yard line.

Now on to the Dallas side, they appear to have 4 main red-zone weapons in the passing game. First, there is the WR duo of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. While Cooper paces the team with total red-zone targets (8), it is RB Ezekiel Elliott who has the most targets inside the 5-yard line. All three of those players already had the must-start status based on draft cost. However, a fourth Cowboys pass-catcher has joined them. Dalton Schultz is currently the TE #4 overall in half-point PPR scoring. With limited options available, Schultz should be starting in fantasy football lineups every week, unless that manager also has another top 5 TE.

Denver Broncos Throwing

Goal-Line Grade: 98.75

A major factor in this particular grade was the opponent. We get to the third of three teams that have allowed 100% TD efficiency on throws inside their own 5-yard line. So we have the Chargers, the Cowboys, and the Raiders all represented in that group. This is good news for the Broncos as they host their division rival Raiders. Look for big weeks from three players in particular. Noah Fant leads Denver in total red-zone targets while Tim Patrick paces the team with targets from inside the 5-yard line. Of course, there is also Courtland Sutton who is tops on the Broncos in fantasy points scored.

I like Week 6 for those three pass-catchers as opposed to the Denvers running backs. The Broncos Goal-Line Grade for the ground attack is below league average at 54.75.

Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Attack

Goal-Line Grade: 95.25

It does not project to be a great rushing week according to the Goal-Line Guide. As opposed to the last two weeks, no team had over a 100 on the ground game Goal-Line Grade. The highest in Week 6 for a rushing unit is the Chargers at 95.25. The next highest is the Bears at 85.75 and there are only three teams total with a Goal-Line rushing grade better than 80 in Week 6. That makes Austin Ekeler one of the most appealing DFS plays on the entire Sunday main slate.

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