Goal-Line Guide Week 14
For some, Week 14 may signal to start of the fantasy football playoffs. Perhaps, other managers are fighting for a playoff spot in the regular-season finale. Either way, this could be a very crucial week in fantasy.
As always, I present the Goal-Line Guide, my weekly attempt to better predict TD production. For details on my methodology for creating the Goal-Line Guide, please read a previous article on the subject.
Here are all of the Goal-Line Grades for Week 14.
|Team||Rushing Goal-Line Grade||Passing Goal-Line Grade|
|Green Bay Packers||74||68|
|Kansas City Chiefs||70||102|
|Las Vegas Raiders||69||76|
|Los Angeles Chargers||77.5||85|
|Los Angeles Rams||66.75||58.25|
|New Orleans Saints||55.5||68.5|
|New York Giants||51.5||56.5|
|New York Jets||56.5||59.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||77.75||50.75|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||84.75||84.25|
|Washington Football Team||69||65.5|
Chiefs Air Attack Again
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Goal-Line Grade: 102
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For Week 14, the Chiefs have the best overall Goal-Line Grade, specifically for their passing offense. Throughout this season, the Kansas City offense has disappointed often. However, even during the lowest-scoring periods of time in 2021, the Chiefs seem to have their way with the Raiders. When they traveled to Las Vegas earlier this year, Kansas City was in the middle of a 6 game stretch of struggles. In the five other contests, the Chiefs failed to eclipse 22 points. In that matchup with the Raiders, they scored 41. Last week, I featured the Chiefs in this article, and it did not go so well. Process over results, and I am going right back to them this week.
Time for Tampa
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 84.75
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Goal-Line Grade: 84.25
This week, the Buccaneers have the best Goal-Line Grade on the ground. The main beneficiary of this will certainly be Leonard Fournette. Currently, he has over half (13 of 21) of Tampa’s carries from inside the 5-yard line to himself. None of his teammates have more than 4. As a result, Fournette possesses true top-five upside at the position. Partially this is because of Fournette’s own recent success. But also because the Bills have allowed a TD on 70% of running plays inside their own 5-yard line. That is the highest rate of any defense playing in Week 14.
Furthermore, the Buccaneers have an elevated Passing Goal-Line Grade, relative to the rest of the league. In Week 14, the average Goal-Line Grade of air attacks is below 70 for the first time since Week 4. While their score is only 84.25, Tampa Bay still has the fifth-best Passing Goal-Line Grade in Week 14. Regardless of the matchup, the Buccaneers lead in the NFL in TD passes from inside the 5-yard line with 13. Only two other teams ar in double-digits.
Low-Line Of The Week
Houston Texans Passing Goal-Line Grade: 49
There are only two teams with sub-50 Goal-Line Grades in Week 14. One of those is the Jaguars, a team that has been featured in this section before. However, I want to focus on their AFC South rival, the Houston Texans. For starters, the Texans have only scored a TD on 33% of throwing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. Passing production has not been kinda to Houston, especially now that Davis Mills may start again for the injured Tyrod Taylor. In the six games that Mills started in 2021, he throw 0 touchdowns in half of them.
While there were few Texans players that were considered startable most weeks, there is one player I may significantly drop in rankings this week. I am very nervous to play Brandin Cooks in this situation. If you have other viable wide receivers, I would strongly consider leaving Cooks on the bench.
Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 14. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.
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