Goal-Line Guide Week 14

For some, Week 14 may signal to start of the fantasy football playoffs. Perhaps, other managers are fighting for a playoff spot in the regular-season finale. Either way, this could be a very crucial week in fantasy.

As always, I present the Goal-Line Guide, my weekly attempt to better predict TD production. For details on my methodology for creating the Goal-Line Guide, please read a previous article on the subject.

Here are all of the Goal-Line Grades for Week 14.

Team	Rushing Goal-Line Grade	Passing Goal-Line Grade
Arizona Cardinals	77.25	63.75
Atlanta Falcons	73.25	63.75
Baltimore Ravens	67.5	75
Buffalo Bills	64.75	82.25
Carolina Panthers	77.25	66.25
Chicago Bears	56.5	74
Cincinnati Bengals	76.75	54.25
Cleveland Browns	72.5	63.5
Dallas Cowboys	81	97
Denver Broncos	71.5	80
Detroit Lions	70.5	94.5
Green Bay Packers	74	68
Houston Texans	55	50
Jacksonville Jaguars	63.5	48
Kansas City Chiefs	70	102
Las Vegas Raiders	69	76
Los Angeles Chargers	77.5	85
Los Angeles Rams	66.75	58.25
New Orleans Saints	55.5	68.5
New York Giants	51.5	56.5
New York Jets	56.5	59.5
Minnesota Vikings	59.25	76.75
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.75	61.75
San Francisco 49ers	77.75	50.75
Seattle Seahawks	74.5	63.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	84.75	84.25
Tennessee Titans	68	70.5
Washington Football Team	69	65.5

Chiefs Air Attack Again

Kansas City Chiefs Passing Goal-Line Grade: 102

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For Week 14, the Chiefs have the best overall Goal-Line Grade, specifically for their passing offense. Throughout this season, the Kansas City offense has disappointed often. However, even during the lowest-scoring periods of time in 2021, the Chiefs seem to have their way with the Raiders. When they traveled to Las Vegas earlier this year, Kansas City was in the middle of a 6 game stretch of struggles. In the five other contests, the Chiefs failed to eclipse 22 points. In that matchup with the Raiders, they scored 41. Last week, I featured the Chiefs in this article, and it did not go so well. Process over results, and I am going right back to them this week.

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Time for Tampa

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 84.75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Goal-Line Grade: 84.25

This week, the Buccaneers have the best Goal-Line Grade on the ground. The main beneficiary of this will certainly be Leonard Fournette. Currently, he has over half (13 of 21) of Tampa’s carries from inside the 5-yard line to himself. None of his teammates have more than 4. As a result, Fournette possesses true top-five upside at the position. Partially this is because of Fournette’s own recent success. But also because the Bills have allowed a TD on 70% of running plays inside their own 5-yard line. That is the highest rate of any defense playing in Week 14.

Furthermore, the Buccaneers have an elevated Passing Goal-Line Grade, relative to the rest of the league. In Week 14, the average Goal-Line Grade of air attacks is below 70 for the first time since Week 4. While their score is only 84.25, Tampa Bay still has the fifth-best Passing Goal-Line Grade in Week 14. Regardless of the matchup, the Buccaneers lead in the NFL in TD passes from inside the 5-yard line with 13. Only two other teams ar in double-digits.

Low-Line Of The Week

Houston Texans Passing Goal-Line Grade: 49

There are only two teams with sub-50 Goal-Line Grades in Week 14. One of those is the Jaguars, a team that has been featured in this section before. However, I want to focus on their AFC South rival, the Houston Texans. For starters, the Texans have only scored a TD on 33% of throwing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. Passing production has not been kinda to Houston, especially now that Davis Mills may start again for the injured Tyrod Taylor. In the six games that Mills started in 2021, he throw 0 touchdowns in half of them.

While there were few Texans players that were considered startable most weeks, there is one player I may significantly drop in rankings this week. I am very nervous to play Brandin Cooks in this situation. If you have other viable wide receivers, I would strongly consider leaving Cooks on the bench.

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 14. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.