Bengals Preview: Week 17 vs Kansas City

The Bengals did exactly what they needed to last week against Baltimore. Joe Burrow had a career day, throwing for over 500 yards and four scores. They handled a team that was missing pieces and are now a win away from locking up the AFC North. To do that this week, they’ll need to knock off a Kansas City team that hasn’t lost in two months.

A win for the Bengals would be huge in a vacuum – it would clinch the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2015. Beyond just that, though, a win would give them an outside shot at the top AFC seed, as they would claim the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City. There are massive implications for both teams in this game. Let’s see just how good these Bengals can really be.

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Injury Report

Bengals
OUT: DL Cam Sample, CB Jalen Davis
ALSO LISTED: QB Joe Burrow, DL Khalid Kareem, LB Logan Wilson

Chiefs
QUESTIONABLE: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
ALSO LISTED: CB Mike Hughes, LB Willie Gay, LB Ben Niemann, DL Derrick Nnadi, DL Jarran Reed, S Tyrann Mathieu, OL Joe Thuney

Odds & Betting Lines

LINE: KC -210, CIN +175
OVER/UNDER: 51.0
SPREAD: KC -4.0

(All odds are taken from BetMGM.)

Key Points

Chiefs

The run on elite tight ends continues for the Bengals. Their last three games had them scrambling to cover George Kittle, Noah Fant, and Mark Andrews. Their reward for that 2-1 stretch is the best in the game, Travis Kelce. Kelce sat out the Chiefs’ last game against the Steelers in COVID-19 protocols, but put up mammoth numbers in an overtime win against the Chargers in week 15. What we all know about the Chiefs, however, is that covering one weapon is far from enough. Names like Byron Pringle or Mecole Hardman may be lesser-known to the casual fan, but they’re more than capable of carving up even the best defenses if too much attention is put on Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The short version is, this offense is nothing short of elite, and the Bengals will need their best defensive performance of the year in this game.

The Chiefs’ defense is something of an enigma. According to PFR, they own a bottom-12 defense in terms of total yards, but a top-5 defense in terms of points allowed. This is a result of their ability to turn teams over. They rank fourth in the league in turnovers forced with 28 total – 13 fumbles recovered and 15 interceptions. The most impressive part, at least on paper, is that they have 5 different players with at least two forced fumbles and 5 different players with at least two interceptions. However, no one has more than four forced fumbles (Mike Hughes leads them with four) or three interceptions (Tyrann Mathieu). There’s clearly some standout talent present, but anyone on this team can make plays in big spots, and they have – that’s what’s gotten them back to the top of the mountain.

Bengals

The Bengals are as healthy as they’ve been in a long while. Burrow is still dealing with a finger issue, but he certainly looked like he was past it last week. The Kansas City pass defense has been hot of late, but they have been susceptible to big runs. Enter Joe Mixon. The Chiefs have allowed over 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games – even if Burrow can’t push the ball downfield, Mixon can break some things open. The Chiefs also haven’t had to face a fully-loaded receiving corps as good as what the Bengals bring in some time. I wouldn’t bet on game-breaking, 500-yard aerial assaults, but it’ll be interesting to see how these teams match up on that front.

The Bengals’ defense gets some well-timed reinforcements. They lost Germaine Pratt to the COVID list this week, but Logan Wilson looks to be returning from a three-game absence. More importantly, the secondary is healthy. Chidobe Awuzie, Eli Apple, and Mike Hilton will draw the assignments of Hill, Hardman, and probably Pringle or Demarcus Robinson. When one of those three aren’t on the field, it’ll be all hands on deck to hold Kelce in check. The line and linebackers will need to play in control to contain the run. Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t post explosive numbers, but can score in bunches. The challenge is that doubling anyone other than Kelce is difficult, as it leaves the outside open to other speedy receivers.

Prediction

Frankly, I really want to pick Cincinnati to win this game. I think they’re good enough in theory, and Kansas City is mortal, regardless of what this dominant 8-game run says. I just don’t think they’re at this level in practice yet. It wouldn’t be overly shocking if they won, given this is a home game for a playoff-hopeful in January. That said, I think the Chiefs’ offense is clicking on all cylinders, and I expect Kansas City to clinch the AFC’s top seed in a shootout.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Bengals 31

– Chris Railsback is a contributing writer for the Bengals at Full Press Coverage.