Bills Offense Vs Chiefs Defense: Divisional Round Preview

Playoff football is all about players executing their jobs and playing sound, assignment football. Simply put, that must be strictly focused on by the Kansas City Chiefs defense this Sunday. The Buffalo Bills hit on one explosive play after another in the first meeting against the Chiefs this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo looked like one of the most dominant offenses in the entire NFL playoff field last week in the Wild Card round.

The Bills offense scored a touchdown on all of their first seven drives in that Wild Card victory over the New England Patriots. What was the only “drive” where they did not score a touchdown? To end the game, backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky came in to take three knees and ran out the clock in victory formation. Buffalo’s only mistakes on those touchdown drives were missing two extra points. Seemingly, every play felt like a large chunk or an explosive gain that sucked the life out of the Patriots.

The Bills finished with 12.3 yards per pass, six yards per carry and 8.9 yards per play. Quarterback Josh Allen looked confident, calm and aggressive. In the passing game, Allen was efficient and tested New England to all areas of the field. He finished with an amazing completion percentage of 84 percent. To boot, his rushing ability exposed the lack of speed and toughness on the Patriots defense. Allen finished with 66 rushing yards on six carries (11 yards per carry). Beyond the quarterback, Buffalo showed off the immense depth that they have among their pass catchers and trusted a much improved running back in Devin Singletary to carry the load in tight spaces.

For Kansas City’s defense, the explosive plays that the Bills were able to hit on during the first matchup against the Chiefs came at an extremely high rate. Allen needed only 15 completions in that first meeting to reach 315 passing yards. Lately, Kansas City has been more cohesive defensively. They have also disguised tendencies a lot more subtly in the second half of the season. Along with those items, executing fundamental and safe defensive play will be paramount against this Bills offense on Sunday.

What are the top position battles that could determine this Divisional Round playoff game when the Bills offense meets the Chiefs defense? Let’s kick it off.

Knox Vs Mathieu And Thornhill

Buffalo loves to spread the football around the yard. In fact, they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with running their offense primarily out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) for the fifth highest rate in the league this season, according to Sharp Football Stats (71 percent). Only the Los Angeles Rams (84 percent), Pittsburgh Steelers (76 percent), Cincinnati Bengals (76 percent) and Washington Football Team (75 percent) ran their offense out of 11 personnel at a higher figure this season.

While the wide receivers usually draw the most attention for the Bills offensively, tight end Dawson Knox has quickly become one of the most productive young tight ends in the league. He is also quietly becoming a security blanket and go to target for Allen. The Ole Miss product set new career highs in categories like targets (71), receptions (49), receiving yards (587), receiving touchdowns (nine), catch percentage (69 percent) and yards per target (8.3). His yards per reception figure (12) tied his mark for last season.

Routinely, Knox has been a reliable pass catcher in traffic, over the middle of the field and in the flats. He grew as a receiver in the deeper areas of the field this season. For example, Knox displayed better timing and technique when needing to high point the football. There was also a more calm, under control form that he used with his hands to attack passes at the catch point. He also proved that he can be difficult to bring down in space.

Who exactly covers Knox on a consistent basis could fluctuate throughout Sunday’s contest. However, the Chiefs safety duo of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are likely to see the bulk of matchups against Knox. Mathieu has been able to inflict power both at the catch point and with his tackling against bulkier tight ends like Knox. Moreover, his patience and smoothness with his ball skills may be a unique matchup for a pass catcher where his hands are likely his top trait.

Thornhill has played some of his best football of the season over the last few weeks. His improved tackling could be necessary on many occasions against Knox. On the other hand, he has shown more confidence when triggering downhill or laterally against pass catchers as the year has grown.

Bills Wide Receivers Vs Chiefs Cornerbacks

Once again, the Bills goal offensively is to spread the wealth and stretch opposing defenders out of position. The wide receiver group is rather deep with a litany of different abilities and traits. In Stefon Diggs, Buffalo possesses arguably the most savvy route runner in the entire NFL. Emmanuel Sanders can still best some of the better defensive backs deep down the field. Cole Beasley is a pest at winning underneath, and then turning that into ample yards after the catch. Finally, Gabriel Davis provides versatility both at the line of scrimmage and in the areas of the field to which he can dominate. The speed and explosiveness of Swiss Army knife Isaiah McKenzie should not be forgotten about, however.

Where Buffalo is collectively dangerous at wide receiver, comes with how much separation they are able to create. Many of these guys are deceptive and composed as route runners. As a result, defenders must either choose to give them ample cushion or maintain outside leverage. It is a tricky game to play against Bills wide receivers that are dangerous after the catch, because of their spatial and situational awareness.

We know the Chiefs love to press and play man coverage close up to the line of scrimmage. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they aligned in press coverage on 68 percent of the routes against the Steelers in last week’s Wild Card round. That would be the highest press coverage rate by a team in any single game over the course of the last six seasons. For reference, Kansas City averaged press coverage 40 percent of the time during the 2021 regular season, which led the NFL.

If the Chiefs opt to play that way at such a high rate again, the cornerbacks will have to continue to show great awareness for the football, while also working to keep plays in front of them. We saw Charvarius Ward have his best performance in a good while against the Steelers. More than once, he was able to recollect and find the football. Ward often got his hand on the ball or in throwing lanes to break up the pass as well. Elsewhere, L’Jarius Sneed and Mike Hughes provided urgent reactionary skills and quick hands to frustrate Pittsburgh pass catchers. The speed of Sneed will be highly critical for the Chiefs cornerbacks against this deep Buffalo wide receiver corps.

Bills Offensive Tackles Vs Chiefs Defensive Ends

The entire Bills offensive line is extremely challenging upfront. Yet, the offensive tackle duo of Dion Dawkins and rookie Spencer Brown is a daunting pair to battle against throughout the entirety of a game. Dawkins provides quickness in his pass set. With an already dense frame, his sufficient length makes for a puzzling task when opposing pass rushers try to get around him. At right tackle, Brown is nasty, strong and also possesses adequate length. The game changer for him is the lateral quickness needed in order to wall off faster pass rushers.

From a pass rushing perspective, the Chiefs defensive end duo of Melvin Ingram and Frank Clark succeed with the style of converting speed to power so smoothly. Ingram added a different layer of explosiveness and first step quickness when coming to Kansas City at the midway point of the season. Additionally, Clark has carried his weight better this year and has shown more nimble footwork when handling lengthier offensive tackles.

Ingram and Clark have a monumental task on their hands against Buffalo. That would be to not just pressure Allen, but contain him to the inside of the pocket. Overall, most of the rushing success from the Bills quarterback comes when he is simply scrambling to the outside of the pocket on his pass attempt, before pulling it down. Ingram and Clark must be able to stay grounded and not get too far upfield against Allen. For instance, Buffalo’s passer has forced 20 missed tackles this year when scrambling. Allen has also gained roughly 53 percent of his rushing yards after first contact this season. Ideally, an emphasis on finishing and implementing a physical, tough style on Allen will be paramount for Ingram, Clark and the rest of the Chiefs front seven.

Be on the lookout for more FPC Chiefs playoff articles throughout this week. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.