Chiefs Vs Bills: Final Headlines, X Factors

For the second straight postseason, the Kansas City Chiefs will do battle with the Buffalo Bills. It will not take place in the AFC Championship Game like last year though, making this one of the more highly anticipated Divisional Round playoff games in recent memory. The Chiefs doubled up on the Bills last year. Not only did they win in Buffalo during the regular season, but Kansas City also prevailed over Buffalo in that conference title game at Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Bills got a commanding win over the Chiefs in Kansas City already earlier this year. Can they be the ones to double up the high powered team of Andy Reid?

What are the final headlines to watch for before Sunday night’s kickoff? We will list those, along with players to watch for, who could be viewed as under the radar x factors entering this matchup from both the Chiefs and the Bills.

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Final Headlines

Will Buffalo Finally Get Over The Hump?

Seemingly every year since the Bills hired Sean McDermott as head coach, Buffalo has taken a step forward from where they ended the previous season. That has been especially true over the last two years. In 2019, the team appeared to have locked up a Wild Card victory in Josh Allen’s first ever playoff appearance. The Bills jumped out to a 16-0 lead by the third quarter in that opening round playoff game at the Houston Texans. However, the Texans stormed back to win 22-19 in overtime.

Buffalo learned a few hard lessons in that single game. Then the Bills came back last year to not only win a playoff game, but they won two total in order to reach the AFC Championship Game. They took a step forward by winning their first postseason game in 25 years, winning in the Wild Card round at home against the Indianapolis Colts. Afterwards, the Bills took another step by beating a dangerous road underdog in the Baltimore Ravens.

The next step after winning in the Divisional Round? Of course, that would be to win the AFC Championship this time around and reach the Super Bowl. Buffalo has steadily improved and built their team by shoring up any weaknesses rather quickly. Their coaching staff has done a fine job of taking players who enter the NFL as unfinished products, and turning them into an all-around versatile football player. And the results are proven at nearly every position on the roster.

Certainly, Allen just had one of the greatest all-time playoff appearances in Buffalo quarterback history. The Bills defense also suffocated the opposing skill players in last week’s Wild Card win. Nevertheless, that exciting high feeling could become moot for Buffalo in one instant. If they cannot take down the AFC’s best playoff team from the last couple of years on Sunday, the pressure will only become greater for the Bills heading into 2022. They definitely have the confidence and belief to get it done on Sunday. Yet, there are a few underlying factors that do not favor Buffalo from their play this season.

The Bills are 0-5 this year in games decided by a touchdown or less. On the flip side, Kansas City is 5-3 in such games this year. The Bills were not as great against teams with a winning record this year, either, finishing at 5-5 against those teams that finished above .500. Their other loss? It was a game in which the Bills pressed and scored only six points against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville will now hold the number one overall pick for the second straight NFL Draft, by the way. Buffalo has simply not capitalized in tight games against winning teams. It appears that those other teams have to make multiple giveaways, or the situation has to be set up just perfectly for the Bills, or they do not execute in crucial moments. Will Sunday go differently against the Chiefs, if another tight game occurs?

Can Kansas City’s Defensive Front Contain Josh Allen?

Allen may possess arguably the greatest arm strength among young passers in the NFL. His velocity and drive that results on his throws are awe-inspiring at times. While that can be dangerous for opposing defenses to handle, the Bills quarterback is also a game changer with his legs.

Buffalo benefits from Allen being a quick learner. He provides so much versatility as a running quarterback. As a defender, you have the size to worry about when trying to bring him down. He is not shy about putting a shoulder down into an opponent’s chest or about pulling off a hurdle or two in open space. Elsewhere, Allen has improved steadily on how he reads the entire field.

This comes in handy on read option runs, where the Bills quarterback is not only focused on the defensive end, but also the second level defender. That ability to read the field is also a weapon when Allen stays patient. For example, on pass attempts where he scrambles outside of the pocket, Buffalo’s passer has shown quicker reactionary skills when pulling it down and then taking off in open space. Allen has forced 20 missed tackles this year when scrambling. He has also gained roughly 53 percent of his rushing yards after first contact this season.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo discussed facing Allen as a runner in Thursday’s media availability. “We’ve spent a lot of time this week talking about how to tackle Josh Allen,” he said. He “looks like some of our running backs out there running the ball. It’s scary.”

To limit Allen’s rushing attempts, one would expect Spagnuolo to bring his patented extra pressure from any and all angles in order to keep the quarterback from escaping the pocket. Kansas City does have more explosiveness and short area quickness on their defense this season. In new additions like Melvin Ingram and Nick Bolton, their tackling power could be used heavily to attack Allen. Those two may be asked to attack and crash more urgently than we are used to seeing from game to game. Finally, the Chiefs have to spy Allen more than they did in the first meeting of the season. Mixing up that role would not be a surprise, given Spagnuolo’s bag of tricks. Can Kansas City’s defense corral the quarterback and prevent him from pulling off explosive gains with his legs?

Which Quarterback Plays Cleaner?

Heading into the future, both Patrick Mahomes and Allen would likely be near the top of most people’s lists, if you asked them which quarterback they would rather have moving forward. Each passer is coming off a dominant showing in last week’s Wild Card round. For instance, Mahomes finished with a touchdown to interception ratio of 5:1, completed 30 of 39 pass attempts (76.92 completion percentage), 404 passing yards and ran three times for 29 rushing yards. Allen, on the other hand, had a touchdown to interception ratio of 5:0, completed 21 of 25 pass attempts (84 completion percentage), 308 passing yards and ran six times for 66 rushing yards last week.

Each of these quarterback’s results have been a mixed bag when facing off against each other, however. We saw Mahomes play pressured and flustered in the first meeting this season. He barely completed over 60 percent of his passes, while also having as many interceptions as he did touchdown passes (two). Allen could not do wrong against Kansas City earlier in 2021. His completion percentage was not relatively high. Though, the Bills quarterback was able to consistently fool the Chiefs with his legs and killed them deep down the field on many occasions. Allen arguably made no mistakes in the first meeting this year.

You go back to last year’s AFC Championship Game, and Mahomes put on a clinic. He was able to complete around 76 percent of his passes and made almost every difficult throw look well placed. Mahomes also left with no interceptions. More importantly, he looked more cool, calm and collected and was simply not fazed by the moment. Allen barely completed 58 percent of his passes in that conference title game. Many times, he forced balls into traffic and was lucky to not have more of those throws go the other way. He did have one interception. Once that happened, Allen appeared shell-shocked and began to check throws down too often.

Finally in the 2020 regular season meeting, much of what we saw in the AFC Championship occurred there as well. Mahomes was possibly not as surgical throughout the entirety of the game. But when it mattered most, the Chiefs quarterback came through to convert when his team needed to, unlike the Bills quarterback. In the end, both quarterbacks are coming off of hot games. We have also seen plenty of variance from both Mahomes and Allen in a short span. Whichever passer makes the most out of what the defense gives him, rather than doing too much, will gift his team an AFC Championship Game appearance.

Do Chiefs Have History On Their Side?

The history of beating a non-division opponent in the NFL twice in the same season is generally rare. Only some of the best players or teams for a given season can usually get the job done. Of course, things like personnel matchups, strength of schedule and momentum from previous weeks can prop one team up over another, no matter how close the two squads appear to be against each other.

On the other hand, you do not want to say that any game is meaningless. Any loss on the schedule could always come back around to bite you, in terms of either trying to make the postseason or playoff seeding. Thankfully for the Chiefs, they were still able to finish with a better record than the Bills, despite losing to Buffalo already. This allowed them a chance to get another home playoff game, instead of having to travel up to western New York.

But overall, it felt like the Chiefs had less motivation than the Bills did in the first meeting this season. Buffalo was out to prove themselves more than Kansas City was. Coach Reid’s team was also still finding themselves in a few areas. Whether it sounds like an excuse or not, the Chiefs are certainly more poised, motivated and confident in January than they likely are for a home game in Week 5.

Obviously, the Chiefs have not lost many games in recent years. Kansas City came back to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in the second meeting this year however, after losing to them the first time. The same thing happened the year before against the Las Vegas Raiders. If you go back to the 2019 regular season, Kansas City lost to both the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans. They faced each of those two teams again in that postseason, defeating both in their leadup to the Super Bowl LIV championship victory.

You have to go back to the prior season in 2018, where the Chiefs last lost to a non-division opponent twice in the same season. They lost a shootout at New England against the Patriots in the 2018 regular season 43-40. Then in that year’s AFC Championship Game, the Patriots came to Kansas City and won another tight one in overtime by a score of 37-31. Will this be a 2019 like rebound for the Chiefs when getting a chance to rematch a team they have already lost to during the regular season? Or, will this be another heartbreaker like the 2018 season was?

X Factors

Chiefs Wide Receiver Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman is currently enjoying the best stretch of his season, and arguably the best stretch of his career. He is continuing to improve on hauling in more passes with less bobbles. On top of that, his field vision and more swift reactions in space with the ball in his hands has led to near breakaway touchdowns. Hardman has been so close on taking a quick pass the distance for a lengthy score. Could he finally squeak past on Sunday?

Bills Wide Receiver Isaiah McKenzie

Isaiah McKenzie fills a similar role to that of Hardman for the Buffalo offense. The Bills love to throw quick passes to him near the line of scrimmage. Instantly, McKenzie reaches top speed and can also instill a lot of explosiveness when taking an opposing tackler head on. He should not be discredited for his work in the intermediate areas of the field, however. McKenzie is a Swiss Army knife, and the Bills are not afraid to give him a heavy workload.

Chiefs Linebacker Nick Bolton

As of this writing, it is unknown if linebacker Willie Gay will play for the Chiefs defense. He was arrested on Wednesday evening and charged with misdemeanor criminal damage to property, after getting into an argument with the mother of his son at their house. No one was touched according to the representation of Gay, though a vacuum was broken in the argument. He was later released from police custody on Thursday evening.

Whether Gay is available or not, Bolton will have a tremendous opportunity on his hands. As mentioned above, he may be allowed to attack more often while trying to limit Allen’s rushing opportunities. Bolton could also be used as a spy, given his instincts and strong read and react ability. Watch for the rookie linebacker to be around the football early and often against the Bills.

Bills Cornerback Dane Jackson

Since Tre’Davious White tore his ACL in November, Dane Jackson has been called upon at outside cornerback for Buffalo. He is not necessarily elite in any areas. Yet, Jackson displays quick, fiery feet and astounding recovery skills with covering and carrying opposing receivers deep down the field. This cornerback can also be extremely tenacious against pass catchers at the catch point.

Chiefs Right Tackle Andrew Wylie

Right tackle Andrew Wylie has done rather well since having to step in during the second half of the season. He bested opposing pass rushers like his college teammate, Maxx Crosby, to a degree where some opponents seemed eliminated from the entire game. Nonetheless, last week’s performance against TJ Watt was one of the more challenging and inconsistent ones for Wylie this season. Where Buffalo wins upfront defensively, is with converting speed to power. The Chiefs reclamation project at offensive line has fared pretty well almost all season long. Wylie could need a noticeable bounce back performance in order for Kansas City to keep their season alive.

Bills Defensive End AJ Epenesa

Out of all of the Bills pass rushers, it may be a rotational guy that Kansas City may have to watch out for the most. AJ Epenesa has grown to be much nastier and stiffer at the point of attack in his second NFL season. He can be difficult to displace off of his base. Meanwhile, Epenesa is more explosive in his pass rush than most expect. The Iowa product doubled the amount of pressures that he finished with last season (14 in 2021, seven in 2020). Epenesa also had seven quarterback knockdowns, five pressures and 1.5 sacks this season in a somewhat limited role.

Be on the lookout for our FPC Chiefs game reaction article following Sunday’s game. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.