Bengals Preview: Divisional Round at Tennessee

The work isn’t done yet in Cincinnati.

The Bengals won round two against the Raiders to earn a date with the AFC’s top-seeded Tennessee Titans. For the second week in a row, playoff history ties into the Bengals’ matchup, as their last win before this season came against the Houston Oilers – now, of course, known as the Titans. Tennessee is an interesting case study in getting up for big games. They played their best football this season against their best opponents. The Bengals surely know this already, but they’ll get all they can handle and more Saturday afternoon.

The Bengals themselves are likely playing with house money, but don’t tell them that. They can keep the rebuild ahead of schedule with another win, and they’re similar to Tennessee in terms of stepping up when the lights are the brightest. They’re capable of rolling into Nissan Stadium and delivering a knockout blow if the Titans let them hang around.

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Injury Report

Bengals
QUESTIONABLE: WR Stanley Morgan
ALSO LISTED: DL Trey Hendrickson, DL Josh Tupou, CB Jalen Davis, CB Mike Hilton, DL Sam Hubbard

Titans
QUESTIONABLE: DL Teair Tart
ALSO LISTED: DL Naquan Jones, CB Buster Skrine, CB Janoris Jenkins, LB Derick Roberson

Odds & Betting Lines

LINE: TEN -190, CIN +160
OVER/UNDER: 47.5
SPREAD: TEN -3.5

(All odds are taken from BetMGM.)

Key Points

Titans

Let’s get the big one out of the way up front: the King has returned. Derrick Henry is active and will lead the way on Saturday. That provides a spark for an offense that was notably shakier in terms of scoring while he was out. In the 8 games he played, the Titans scored under 24 points only once (week 1), per PFR. In the 9 games he missed, they were held under 24 points six times. He’ll also shore up their ball security – in their last three losses, Ryan Tannehill and company have turned the ball over 13 times. Now, overall, their turnover number isn’t bad, as in their last six wins, they’ve turned it over only once. Nonetheless, Mike Vrabel has to trust Henry more than D’Onta Foreman or Dontrell Hilliard with the season on the line.

The Titans’ defensive efforts will come down to how they handle Cincinnati’s weapons in the passing game. Per PFR, the Titans allow the second fewest rushing attempts, second fewest rushing yards, and fourth fewest yards per rush in the NFL. Joe Mixon wasn’t exactly a world-beater last week, so that’s a big win for Tennessee. However, they were susceptible to good passing attacks, ranking 25th in passing yards allowed. If there’s one weakness in this team, it’s the defensive backfield. Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Byard are fine, but past them, it gets shaky.

Bengals

Henry presents a challenge unlike anything Cincinnati has seen this season. Josh Jacobs gave them fits last week, and he was banged up. Henry hasn’t seen game action in nearly three months, but he’s healthy – expect big numbers even if the Bengals are able to slow him down. That said, Ryan Tannehill isn’t an earth-shattering offensive force. Julio Jones, A.J. Brown, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhene are a formidable trio, but the Bengals have the pieces to keep them in check. Trey Hendrickson’s return helps some, as both a pass-rusher and run-stopping body, but it’s a tall task regardless.

The Bengals’ offense is made for this kind of matchup. Tennessee invites the pass and doesn’t cover it particularly well. Tee Higgins has been quiet since his mammoth week 16 outing, but this could be his chance to explode. You’d have to figure the Titans would put Jenkins on Ja’Marr Chase – that doesn’t outright eliminate Chase, but I’d be willing to gamble with Higgins on Kristian Fulton. They’ll absolutely have to be better at finishing drives this week. Tennessee gives up chunks of yards, but tends not to break. Red zone execution, whether it be pounding Mixon inside, throwing it up to Chase and Higgins, or anything else, is paramount to the Bengals’ success.

Prediction

The Titans haven’t looked like surefire contenders down the stretch of the season, but they also didn’t have Derrick Henry. He’s a gamebreaker, and not one Cincinnati is well-equipped to handle. It’s not impossible, and a fast start to put Tennessee on its heels might be enough to weather that storm. Frankly, it’s not something I can endorse betting on. The Bengals will make this interesting, but Henry will be the difference-maker Tennessee is looking for.

Prediction: Titans 27, Bengals 23

– Chris Railsback is a contributing writer for the Bengals at Full Press Coverage.