Examining the Jets’ Postseason Chances with 17 Games Remaining

The Winnipeg Jets are in the middle of a pivotal four-game homestand with major postseason implications at hand.

But based on their play against their cellar-dwelling Canadian rival Ottawa Senators on Thursday, you certainly wouldn’t guess it.

After opening the four-game-in-six-day chunk with a lopsided victory over the ever-threatening Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday, Winnipeg was back at it on Thursday with the visiting Senators. It was a must-win for the Jets, after back-to-back statement wins over Vegas.

But in typical 2021-22 Winnipeg Jets fashion, the home team just did not feel like showing up to play. In fact, the only signs of life came when trailing 4-1 with less than four minutes to play in the third period. The Jets scored one with Connor Hellebuyck on the bench for the extra attacker but gave up another into the empty net just moments later.

If that wasn’t a tell-tale sign of Winnipeg’s current situation, we really aren’t too sure what would be.

Nikolaj Ehlers called it “frustrating”, while Kyle Connor said his teammates “weren’t on the right page”. All of this after talk of hoping to avoid slipping into Ottawa’s structure and game plan.

“There are some pretty good teams and Ottawa was great tonight,” Ehlers said. “There’s no way around that. We played into how they want to play and we didn’t play the hockey that we need to play to win games. Fortunately enough, we have a game again tomorrow. So, we’ve got to go out and change that.”

Saying it and doing it are two ver different things. Connor did his part with his 40th goal of the season, but on the flip side of things, he turned over a puck leading to an Ottawa goal. It just wasn’t Winnipeg’s night. But to make the playoffs, losing must-win games cannot happen.

In fact, nearly every game will be a ‘must-win’ for Winnipeg going forward. Considering the team’s decision to stand pat at this week’s trade deadline rather than sell off all of its assets, the mindset is definitely that of gearing down and preparing for a serious stretch run in advance of a fight for one of the final Western Conference playoff spots.

After falling apart against the Senators on Thursday, the Jets will look for a quick turnaround with old friend Patrik Laine and the Columbus Blue Jackets visiting Canada Life Centre just 24 hours later.

“I think he has found his spot there, found his home,” Connor said of his old teammate, Laine. “I thought he has played really well. We all know how hot he can get; we saw that stretch he went on earlier this year. He’s been playing some good hockey. It will be fun to catch up with him and I’m sure we will have some laughs on the ice. But we definitely want to get the win in that.”

Not to downplay an opponent currently out of the playoff picture, but Winnipeg is also in the midst of a four-game stretch against fellow teams sitting on the outside looking in. Last-place Arizona visits on Sunday, before Jets travel to Buffalo in the first battle of a short two-game road trip.

Of Winnipeg’s final 17 opponents, eight games come against teams outside the playoff picture. The remaining nine games are against some of the league’s top dogs. Other than Friday’s test against the Blue Jackets and the April 2nd matchup with the Kings, there really is no in-between for Winnipeg.

Non-playoff opponents between March 25 and the season finale on April 29 include Columbus (20th), Arizona (32nd), Buffalo (26th), Detroit (24th), Ottawa (29th), Montreal (31st), Seattle (30th) and Philadelphia (27th).

Teams currently in playoff position that Winnipeg faces prior to the end of the season include Toronto (5th), Los Angeles (14th), Colorado (1st), Florida (2nd), Tampa Bay (7th), New York (6th), Carolina (3rd), Colorado again (1st) and Calgary (8th).

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In order to earn a playoff berth, the Jets will likely need to win 13 of 17 games, just to keep pace with that of their Central Division opponents, the St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars. Oh right, the Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angele Kings, Edmonton Oilers, and Calgary Flames are also all challenging for the other three spots.

At the moment, the Central is much more powerful than the Pacific, meaning it will likely be five Central Division teams qualifying for the postseason out of Winnipeg’s division. But with Dallas earning yet another win on Thursday, and Vegas also grabbing another two points, the mountain remains just as steep – if not steeper – as it has ever been for the hot and cold club.

Wins over the weaker, non-playoff teams will be a must while finding ways to pick up victories over teams in contention will also be necessary if the Jets hope to gain any ground.

Over the course of the 2021-22 season, Winnipeg has seen a number of points slip away – including that of 10 overtime/shootout losses, which is just one game off the league-high. The Jets have also lost a number of games to teams near the bottom of the pack. A 1-0 shutout loss at home to Arizona back in late-November set fans into a frenzy, which was followed up by a 4-2 home loss to Buffalo shortly thereafter. The six-game January losing streak did not help matters, but Winnipeg has found a way to make up some ground as Vegas has continued its glorious fall from grace.

Thursday’s mishap with the Senators needs to be the final blip in the radar if a playoff berth is a serious thought. Head coach Dave Lowry knows the implications at hand, but his focus remains on the immediate future.

With Dallas remaining hot, Winnipeg needs to find a way to continue winning just to keep pace with its divisional opponents. 13 wins would give the Jets 26 more points for a total of 96 – likely the number they will need to squeeze into the postseason. Should they garner an additional overtime or shootout loss along the way, the task would become easier. But 13 wins in 17 games is an exceptionally difficult task, even for the strongest of teams.

For now, it’s acknowledging mistakes, solving the problems, and carrying out the solutions going forward that will fix this club. Next test comes against the Blue Jackets on Friday.

“It’s a mindset, wanting to make a difference every single night,” Connor said of his mates. “We see how talented our group is, no question about that. It’s just about the willingness to commit, and I think we were a little disjointed tonight, stretching when we don’t need to be, need to support the puck, being too close, leaving guys open, just not making the right reads when we need to. Just a very frustrating game for sure.”