Who Are Leafs’ Preferred Playoff Opponents – Bolts Or Bruins?

With the postseason just around the corner, who would be the Maple Leafs preferred playoff opponent… the Bruins or Lightning?

With a little less than one-quarter of the regular season still to play, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a familiar situation: battling the Boston Bruins for supremacy in the Atlantic Division. As long-suffering Leafs fans know only too well, it has been a one-sided showdown in the modern era, with the Bruins dominating Toronto when the games mattered most.

And now, although the Leafs were the stronger team in the early part of the season, the Bruins are coming on strong. Since mid-February, Boston has gone 14-2-1, and this week, they moved into a tie with Toronto (the Leafs have two games in hand on them) for second place in the Atlantic. Their win over the Islanders Saturday vaulted Boston past Toronto, if only for the moment. But with the first-place Florida Panthers six points ahead of the Buds and Bruins, it’s increasingly likely the Leafs’ first-round playoff opponent will be either Boston or the back-to-back defending Stanley Cup-champion Tampa Bay Lightning. And so, which experienced, championship core does Toronto want to take on? There may be no good answer.

The Bruins still are led by their best three forwards – Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand – but to the credit of GM Don Sweeney, their depth at forward has improved with the addition of winger Taylor Hall and the performance rebound of winger Jake DeBrusk, as well as important contributions from Charlie Coyle and Craig Smith. Off-season acquisition Linus Ullmark hasn’t earned the starter’s job outright, but that’s OK, as rookie Jeremy Swayman has made a huge splash (2.09 goals-against average, .925 save percentage). And their one perceived weakness – a relatively thin defense corps – was addressed at the March 21 trade deadline in the trade with the Anaheim Ducks that made veteran Hampus Lindholm a key cog.

Boston also has a solid amount of regular-season games remaining against teams they should easily beat: of their 17 games left, seven of them are against non-playoff teams (two games against Columbus, and one each against New Jersey, Detroit, Ottawa, Montreal and Buffalo). Their other 10 games will have a huge impact on their final finish in the standings: two games against the Leafs, two against the Pittsburgh Penguins, two against the St. Louis Blues, and one each against the Lightning, Panthers, Washington Capitals, and New York Rangers.

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Meanwhile, of Toronto’s remaining 19 games, 10 are against non-playoff teams: two against the Habs, two against the Philadelphia Flyers, and one each against Dallas, Winnipeg, Buffalo, Ottawa, the New York Islanders, and the Red Wings. Their other nine games come against Florida (three times), Tampa Bay (twice), Washington (twice), and twice against the Bruins, including the Leafs’ final game of the year, on April 29 in Toronto. That final game could decide whether Toronto has home-ice advantage in the playoffs.

But at the moment, the Leafs’ destiny is in their own hands. They haven’t shown enough consistency of late to project them finishing first in the Atlantic, but they still have enough skill to compete with the best teams, and, aside from injuries to goalie Jack Campbell and defensemen Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin, they’re in good health. Toronto management has chosen to push its chips behind No. 2 netminder Petr Mrazek and rookie Erik Kallgren, and that may be a decision that comes back to haunt them. But if Campbell returns sooner than later, there will be no excuses for them. This is the blueprint GM Kyle Dubas has put in place, and like all GMs, he’ll be judged on his team’s win and loss columns.

Who do they have a better shot against? Structurally, they match up better against the Bruins, but psychologically, they may be in a better position against the Lightning. When you’re going up against the reigning champs, you may find it easier to ratchet up your skilled play, rather than grinding it out against a Bruins team that has given your team some of the worst recent memories imaginable.

So, pick your poison, Leafs fans. Boston or Tampa Bay? Either way, it will take a monster post-season performance, but there’s no other way to a Cup win for them.