Which Second-Year Quarterback Will Make Biggest Leap?

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We are just a couple of weeks removed from the 2022 NFL Draft. The quarterback position traditionally dominates the draft headlines. But as the teams showed us during their selections, this year’s crop of quarterbacks was not full of can’t miss stars. It was a rare point for what teams and fans had become accustomed to. For instance, five quarterbacks were selected in the first round the year before. An additional three passers were selected in the top 100 after the first round.

Of all of the quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft class, Mac Jones was the one who roared out to a hot start. Meanwhile, names like Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields displayed noticeable growth late in their rookie campaigns. The jury is still out for guys like Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance. Yet, one of those two players are now finally set up with proper leadership and coaching. The other is still battling an uncertain cloud that hangs over his head.

Which quarterback could make the biggest leap in their sophomore season? Does Jones double down on a somewhat strong start to his tenure in New England? Or, will there be a different passer who begins to separate his name from the pack of quarterbacks that were drafted in 2021? Let’s kick it off.

Did New England Hurt Jones’ Chances?

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It has been a bizarre offseason for the Patriots, to say the least. Most of their free agent period was spent by re-signing veteran players to minor deals. Certainly, defensive additions like Jabrill Peppers, Terrance Mitchell and Mack Wilson will find a niche role to perform under. Yet, it is hard to ignore the lack of offensive additions as Jones enters his second season.

The shortage of major additions at wide receiver were quite baffling, given the deep free agent class. New England did acquire DeVante Parker from the division rival Miami Dolphins via trade. However, he has battled injuries throughout his career and has only once recorded more than 800 receiving yards in a season. Elsewhere, the incumbent cast of Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor provides Jones with extremely narrow skillsets in the passing game.

Beyond the minimal moves at wide receiver, the Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. New England has not done Jones any favors by failing to hire an offensive coordinator with previous experience in that spot. As Mike Reiss of ESPN reported, both Matt Patricia and Joe Judge may be battling it out to see who will call plays. Of course, nothing is confirmed on that front. That dysfunctional type of thought may be too detrimental to a young quarterback like Jones, though. Neither coach has ever called offensive plays in any capacity, to boot. Plus, New England’s offensive game plan may be slightly preventing the passer from leaning on his top traits (i.e. arm strength, ball placement).

How Believable Were The Finishes Of Mills, Wilson And Fields?

What can be made of the late finishes in 2021 by Mills, Wilson or Fields? Was it all false hope? Or, can their respective team and coaches trust in the results that we saw? So much of success from young quarterbacks depends on the situation or environment that they are placed into. Easily, all three of Mills, Wilson and Fields are involved in the early stages of full scale rebuilds. Their strong finishes all have to be measured by looking at where they proved to gain an advantage over the opposing defense, even if it did not all lead to early success in the win column.

Davis Mills

In the case of Mills, the quarterback thrived in the pro-style offense with the Texans, similar to his days at Stanford. With a heavy dose of play action, he was able to build off of progressions more consistently as the season wore on. Mills also showed a tremendous knack for reading coverage deeper in the season as well. Specifically against zone coverage, he had no issues in attacking all areas of the field. According to Next Gen Stats, Mills was around average or above average in all but one of the 12 areas of the field. That was in terms of passer rating and completion percentage.

Zach Wilson

Wilson has enjoyed being able to start his career within a wide zone offense while with the Jets. There is no denying his prowess with the deep ball, and the accuracy that he has with it. Whereas with his deep throws against man coverage, Wilson steadily improved on his touch and ball placement late last year. He certainly found more comfort and confidence when needing to work through progressions at the end of 2021. Early in the year, he stared down his intended target too often. But when the season grew on, Wilson found his groove in scanning the field.

Justin Fields

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Similar to the aforementioned Jones, Chicago has largely failed to surround Fields with adequate weapons. Darnell Mooney has been a serviceable late round find. But outside of that, there are very little impact players who Fields is forced to throw the ball to right now. That may be where the dual threat ability and football IQ of the Bears quarterback comes in handy. He was able to confuse or frustrate opposing defenses with those traits late last year.

In addition, those superb parts of his game helped to balance out the methodical pocket awareness and lengthy release of Fields altogether. Sure, the accuracy and ball placement are still works in progress. That question mark has already begun to shrink, however, based on the late push by Fields in 2021.

One Year Wiser

As for the other quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft that were taken early, being one year wiser is so crucial. Neither Lawrence nor Lance were able to achieve the on-field success that they had hoped in 2021. But sometimes, just getting that first year under your belt is so monumental. It can simply be a massive amount of weight lifted off of a young passer’s shoulders, no matter how good or bad the performance was.

For Lance, we have yet to see San Francisco fully commit to him entering 2022. Due to how his short stint of starting games at North Dakota State went, the development for him lies in the basic fundamentals. Can the quarterback run and orchestrate an offense at the NFL level? Was Lance able to recognize the small details throughout his first year of development?

On the other hand, Lawrence was able to play in every game as a rookie. Having that first year under his belt may allow him to recognize his current role. Jacksonville needs a stoic leader, a quarterback who continues to take what is given to him, thus not trying to do too much. That happened too often for Lawrence last year. In 2022, will Lawrence learn how to play much smarter? If he gets back to playing loose like he did at Clemson, rather than being too tight or too fine, the Jaguars quarterback will have shown a great deal of maturity from what we saw in year one.

My Pick

Finally, it is time to make my pick for which second-year quarterback that I believe will make the biggest leap in 2022. In the end, Trevor Lawrence is who I am hanging my hat on. First off, you have the Doug Pederson factor now at head coach. Getting away from the Urban Meyer clown show was already a massive win for Lawrence and his teammates. Furthermore, Pederson has been renowned for his ability to develop, teach and motivate younger quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, Lawrence will be setup to succeed more so than what he was as a rookie. Some of that is due to the meaningful change at head coach. However, the more well-rounded, while still diverse, offensive structure will provide Lawrence with a sturdier nucleus. By having that around him, Jacksonville’s quarterback can attack defenses more systematically than he was ever allowed to in 2021.

Outside of Lawrence, it is not too far-fetched to believe that the Jaguars will be a more competitive team in 2022. Last year’s result is obviously a low bar to clear. At the same time, Jacksonville is arguably playing in the weakest division of a nasty and crowded AFC. The talent and potential of Lawrence himself is still at a higher ceiling than any of the other quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft as well.

Stay tuned for more NFL offseason articles and analysis here at Full Press Coverage throughout this summer.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.