Predicting Fantasy Impacts for Bengals in 2022

Before every season in the NFL, there’s a contingent of fans out there who gather around, whether online or in someone’s sports cave, and conduct a fantasy football draft. I’m in that crowd. Chances are, you, as a reader here, are in that crowd. The draw of fantasy football, at least for me, is that there’s no one formula to winning your league. The best players might get hurt; middling players might break out. The Bengals had a few in the latter category last season, though admittedly “middling” might not be the best way to describe them.

The point is, you don’t have to be an expert to participate in fantasy sports. You don’t have to know all the ins and outs to formulate an opinion or a prediction. As we wait for more news out of training camp and free agency, let’s take a crack at what the Bengals might offer in 2022’s fantasy season.

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Let’s keep this relatively simple. I’ll go through each position in “traditional” fantasy leagues (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D/ST) and look at the Bengals’ 2021 numbers, then share my thoughts on whether they’ll be better or worse in 2022. (Before we dive into some numbers, here’s the source up front. I’m pulling 2021 fantasy statistics from this link here, based on PPR scoring.)

QB – Joe Burrow

2021 Totals: 314.24 points, 8th among QB
Prediction for 2022: Slight improvement over 2021

Burrow’s fantasy season in 2021 was… interesting. Each of the 7 QB’s who finished with more fantasy points had more pass attempts than Burrow’s 520, and only Aaron Rodgers (5th in FPTS, 531 pass attempts) was even close. Burrow led all QBs with 10 or more starts in yards per attempt (8.9). His touchdown total of 34 wasn’t bad, but trailed all QBs ahead of him in fantasy scoring. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a huge leap in those categories, but they shouldn’t go backwards, either. Burrow is a top-10 lock at the QB position this year, and could sneak into the top 5 if all goes well.

RB – Joe Mixon

2021 Totals: 287.9 points, 4th among RB
Prediction for 2022: The scoring will improve, but the ranking probably won’t

Mixon, in my opinion, is the most interesting case to look at on the Bengals’ roster. It’s no secret the Bengals want to air it out on offense. Perhaps in spite of that, Mixon picked up 1,205 yards on the ground last season. This offseason, the Bengals retooled just about the entire offensive line in front of him. That was mostly done for Burrow’s protection, but Mixon should see some benefits as well, as his 4.1 yards per attempt last season was lower than most of last season’s top 50 fantasy RBs.

He won’t match the explosiveness of Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, or Jonathan Taylor, but I think 300 points in 17 games is a reasonable expectation. Mixon’s rank among RBs will likely slip a bit with Chubb, Henry, and Alvin Kamara likely to play full seasons. Like Burrow, though, he should be among the top 10 at his position easily and could be as high as the top 3 in a perfect world.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase

2021 Totals: 304.6 points, 5th among WR
Prediction for 2022: Worse than 2021, but still very good

This is in no way an indictment of Chase or a prediction for a sophomore slump. It’s just a fact of the Bengals’ offense. Chase and Tee Higgins, who we’ll get to in a minute, are one of only 7 WR tandems (not counting tight ends) to each have at least 100 targets in 2021. Tyler Boyd had 94 himself. Chase is the crown jewel of that three-headed monster, but he’ll only have so many balls thrown his way. He’s still one of the premier young receivers in the NFL, but in shallower fantasy pools like 6 or maybe even 8 teams, he looks to me more like a top WR2 than a bottom WR1.

WR – Tee Higgins

2021 Totals: 219.1 points, 24th among WR
Prediction for 2022: Your guess is as good as mine

Higgins could fall just about anywhere on the fantasy spectrum by year’s end in 2022 and I wouldn’t be shocked. He had some mammoth performances down the stretch of last season, but battled some injuries in the first half and had a handful of duds. I think his total scoring output from 2021 is a reasonable expectation, but it was buoyed last year by his monstrous Week 16 outing against Baltimore where he amassed 194 yards and 2 scores.

His streakiness combined with the nature of the Bengals’ target shares makes me inclined to take a similar approach to Chase – take where he finished last season and add about 5 spots onto his ranking. If your league starts 25-30 receivers, he’s an easy start as a WR3 or flex. I can’t sell myself on more than that before the season starts.

WR – Tyler Boyd

2021 Totals: 183.84 points, 31st among WR
Prediction for 2022: See Higgins

Boyd strikes me similarly to Higgins in terms of his fantasy impact. His total of 5 touchdowns last season was relatively low and could improve this season. However, with Higgins and Chase emerging, his 94 targets will likely come down a bit as a result. There’s not too much to say here – he’ll be solid for the Bengals, but I have doubts about how good he’ll be for your fantasy team on Sundays. Higgins is a safer pick, but Boyd definitely has value as a backup option, if not more.

TE – Hayden Hurst

2021 Totals (With ATL): 64.1 points, 37th among TE
2022 Prediction: Significant improvement

Hurst has two things going for him in the 2022 fantasy season – first, he’s not playing behind Kyle Pitts now. That would help just about anyone’s fantasy production. Secondly, while the Bengals don’t use their tight ends as the focal point of their passing attack, C.J. Uzomah doubled Hurst’s fantasy production last season. As long as he stays healthy, Hurst will get opportunities to produce. He won’t be a top 10 producer at the tight end spot, but he’ll be worth a look as a backup option.

K – Evan McPherson

2021 Totals: 148 Points, 8th among K
2022 Prediction: About the same

McPherson figures to look about the same in 2022. We’d like to see a bit of improvement over his 84.8 percent field goal conversion rate, but about 30 attempts and 50 extra point attempts seem like reasonable numbers to expect for 2022. He should be in, or at the very least near, the top 10 kickers again, there’s not much to say here.

Defense and Special Teams

2021 Totals: 108 points, 17th among D/ST
2022 Prediction: Similar with Jessie Bates, worse without him

This will likely come down to whether Bates plays this season, whether that’s under the franchise tag or a new contract. Either way, Bates is the difference-maker in Cincinnati’s secondary. The rest of the defense looks nearly identical to last season’s – B.J. Hill is the only “new” starter, but he was on the field for the Super Bowl run. Akeem Davis-Gaither will be back at linebacker.

Even so, the Bengals’ defense was pretty much average last season, and with no huge additions, Bates will determine their fantasy value. With Bates, they’re a solid streamer option on a week-to-week basis. Without him, they’re dangerous, and not in a good way.

– Chris Railsback is a contributing writer for the Bengals at Full Press Coverage.