Which Wide Receiver From 2019 NFL Draft Gets Paid Next?

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The wide receiver position has garnered many of the 2022 NFL offseason headlines. We have seen some of the league’s best pass catchers change teams via trade, like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown. That trio, along with many others, have cashed in on new megadeal contract extensions. The price of pay continues to rise for the top names at the position. Meanwhile, the demand for having three valid wide receivers in an offense is drastically growing for offenses in the NFL.

Of course, the current trend around the NFL is that it is a pass happy league. At least for most teams, they are looking to do most of their damage through the air, with little to no hesitancy surrounding their aggressiveness. This has trickled down to college football, high school football and younger ages of seven-on-seven leagues. If you can get open and make magic by catching the football, you are likely going to get early opportunities at the pro level.

Many of the new wide receiver contracts have been signed recently. As you can see, there are now eleven wide receivers that make $20 million or more on average per season. Nine of those deals have been signed in just this offseason alone.

After Cooper Kupp’s extension, 11 WRs are now in the $20+ million salary club (on a per season salary basis).

Nine of these deals have happened just this offseason. 💰💰💰#RamsHouse #FinsUp #RaiderNation #FlyEaglesFly #BillsMafia #FPC #NFL #NFLTwitter pic.twitter.com/m4mPt77eg1

— Full Press NFL (@FullPressNFL) June 9, 2022

That begs the question, which wide receiver gets the bag to join that group next? It seems to be down to three wide receivers, all of which were selected in the 2019 NFL Draft. This includes Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin. Each of these names have also been involved in hypothetical trade discussions and have been holding out of team activities. Who could be paid first of this trio? Let’s break it down case by case.

Current Salary Cap Space

As always with discussing possible contract extensions, we must dive into the salary cap space for teams involved. Some will argue that the salary cap is fake. On the other hand, there has been a noticeable correlation for teams that have been hurt by it all at once. Here is where all three teams involved sit in terms of current 2022 salary cap space. Where that ranks out of all 32 teams is also listed. All items are presented via OverTheCap.

• Washington Commanders: Current salary space= $18.383 million, seventh-most out of 32 teams
• Seattle Seahawks: Current salary cap space= $16.379 million, tenth-most out of 32 teams
• San Francisco 49ers: Current salary cap space= $4.696 million, second-fewest out of 32 teams

Early Career Production

Receiving Production

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If you look towards the early career production for all three names involved, each of Samuel, Metcalf and McLaurin have been more productive than the others in some capacity. McLaurin (222) narrowly leads the group in receptions. Metcalf (216) is closer to him in that category, compared to Samuel (167). The possible outlier for the San Francisco wideout in this area? He missed nine total games in 2020 due to injury.

In terms of receiving yards, it is Metcalf (3,170) who narrowly leads McLaurin (3,090) in career receiving yardage so far. Samuel again falls below them (2,598). Yet, Samuel’s most recent campaign in 2021 produced the highest amount of receiving yards in any single season among this group (1,405). That is his only season with over 1,000 receiving yards so far. Metcalf’s single season best in that category is 1,303 receiving yards, his only season with over 1,000 receiving yards. Finally, McLaurin’s single season best in that category is 1,118 receiving yards. He is the only one of the trio to produce multiple seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards, however.

Receiving touchdowns can be produced in a variety of ways. Though, the discrepancy in that category among these three wide receivers is quite vast. Metcalf, far and away, leads this group with 29 career receiving touchdowns. That is good enough for nearly 10 receiving touchdowns per season. McLaurin comes in second with 16 career receiving touchdowns. Lastly, Samuel has 10 career receiving touchdowns so far.

Rushing Production

Samuel has a discrete advantage when looking at rushing production. Each of Metcalf and McLaurin have only three career rushes to their name at the NFL level. Whereas with Deebo, he has already reached 81 rushing attempts and 11 rushing touchdowns in his first three seasons. 59 of those attempts and eight of those rushing scores came in 2021. That hybrid role made Samuel nearly unstoppable at points of last season.

However, it feels like that role partly led to his recent trade request and added to his list of needs on a potential contract extension. Despite the torrid pace of rushing production, Samuel reportedly feels like he was getting slightly overused last season. He has a specific injury history to point towards. At the same time, he is looking out for his long-term value as he hopes to see his career progress further.

Future Outlook

Most of the time, the needs or wants of players looking to sign contract extensions must be met thoroughly. That is especially true with recent wide receiver deals, at least so it appears. Though, we must look into factors on the other side of the coin. What does the future outlook on their respective teams look like? Could that influence each of Samuel, Metcalf or McLaurin one way or the other, on whether or not they should re-sign? Elsewhere, how do these outlooks affect their possible timeline of landing a new deal?

Deebo Samuel

QB Situation

This is obviously a quarterback situation that is currently up in the air. Eventually, it appears bound to be Trey Lance‘s team. He entered the NFL needing plenty of fine-tuning and polish, nevertheless. Moreover, Jimmy Garoppolo has won a fair amount of games by carrying out the 49ers’ offense to a tee. He is far from perfect. But, Garoppolo has been able to make some dazzling plays in major moments. Does the presumed greater arm strength of Lance open up more opportunities down the field for Samuel?

Contending Or Rebuilding?

The 49ers are likely to always be a team that is hoping to contend under Kyle Shanahan. If anything, San Francisco has been quick to make necessary changes to spots on the roster that has kept them competitive. Even when this team is surrounded by some doubt, they appear to handle the underdog role well, especially against some of the league’s top teams. This could be an item that could help the 49ers’ case by hoping for Samuel to stay.

Supporting Cast Of Weapons

From a contract perspective, there are some important salaries that San Francisco has increasing coming up. The major salary on offense that is currently on the books for 2022 is Garoppolo ($26.95 million cap hit via OverTheCap). Starting in 2023, both offensive tackle Trent Williams ($26.27 million cap hit) and tight end George Kittle ($18.383 million cap hit) will each see their salaries rise.

DK Metcalf

QB Situation

Similarly to San Francisco, the Seahawks do not entirely know who their starting quarterback will be in 2022. After trading away Russell Wilson, Seattle appears to be entering quarterback purgatory. Drew Lock or Geno Smith will get a chance to show what they have this season. But moving forward, the Seahawks arguably do not have their quarterback of the future on this current roster makeup. One would think that this could hurt Seattle’s chances in retaining Metcalf.

Contending Or Rebuilding?

Whether they want to admit it or not, this is a team that feels like they are entering a rebuild. The trenches have largely been filled with hit-or-miss options for far too long. Those spots must be replenished with young talent moving forward. Overall, the Seahawks would be wise to fix and build up other position groups before being ready to add their next potential star at quarterback. Once again, this area could hurt Metcalf’s chances at sticking with the Seahawks.

Supporting Cast Of Weapons

From a contract perspective, there are not many crippling cap hits on the books for 2022 in Seattle. Wide receiver Tyler Lockett ($10.05 million cap hit) and guard Gabe Jackson ($9 million cap hit) are the only offensive players that sniff around a $10 million cap hit this season. Along with Lockett ($16.75 million cap hit) and Jackson ($9.5 million cap hit), tight end Will Dissly ($9.25 million cap hit) is the only other offensive player that comes close to that threshold among Seahawks’ offensive players in 2023.

Terry McLaurin

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QB Situation

This is yet another team that is not so stable with their quarterback situation in 2022. Acquiring Carson Wentz could turn out to be a momentum changer for the Commanders. However, Washington paid a questionable price to get him and acquire his massive contract. There have been times where Wentz has appeared as unplayable over the past couple of seasons. For a team that has rode the quarterback carousel so often, Washington is playing on dangerous grounds, given that this could be a make-or-break season for so many within that organization. If Wentz falters, the future is definitely unknown for Washington at QB once again.

Contending Or Rebuilding?

This team was a scrappy, hard-working team a couple of years ago. That same spirit was still there at times last season. Even still, Washington seems to be in a difficult phase. They are not necessarily a clear contender, despite the NFC being weaker overall. The Commanders are not in a full-scale rebuild either, similar to that of what Seattle appears to be entering. Let’s just say that Washington is in “wait and see mode”, while they hope to figure out a clear plan. Simply put, that may not be enough to satisfy the likes of McLaurin.

Supporting Cast Of Weapons

From a contract perspective, there are a few meaningful cap hits that stand out on Washington’s offense among the 2022 books. Wentz ($28.295 million cap hit), wide receiver Curtis Samuel ($12.625 million cap hit), offensive lineman Chase Roullier ($9.88 million cap hit) and offensive lineman Charles Leno Jr. ($8.5 million cap hit) all stand out. In 2023, three of those four names see their respective cap hits increase on Washington’s books (Samuel- $13 million, Leno Jr.- $12.5 million, Roullier- $11.37 million).

Who Gets Paid First?

All of these situations are challenging to predict, mostly because of the future outlooks being so bleak in many areas. We have seen someone like Samuel request a trade, hint at not wanting to be in a city like San Francisco and disapprove of his hybrid role from 2021. McLaurin and Metcalf have each held out of team activities this offseason as well.

None of these situations truly make me feel like any deal is imminent for any of this trio. If Seattle had a younger or long-term option at quarterback, I believe that they would pay Metcalf before either of the other two get paid. The Seahawks have displayed their passion and excitement for him. And under Pete Carroll, Seattle has rewarded players, by letting them be themselves.

With the outlooks and possible futures involved, it is entirely possible that none of these three are playing wide receiver for the same team that they currently call their own. In today’s day and age, players are more willing to prove themselves elsewhere during the early stages of their career. Because of that, I still think that Metcalf will be the first one paid. Whether that is with Seattle or not, remains to be seen. Quite frankly, I do not believe that any of these three will be paid this offseason.

Be on the lookout for more 2022 NFL offseason articles and analysis here at Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.