Fantasy Football: AFC East TD Projections -

Touchdowns are incredibly important to fantasy football scoring. Here are AFC East TD Projections for all of the players in the division.

The common perception is that it is so difficult to predict touchdowns. Most say that TD production is not a sticky stat from year to year and that touchdowns are fluky. Well, I want to push back on that perception. While it may be difficult to detect touchdowns on a week-to-week basis, I believe we can estimate TD production over the course of an entire season. So in this series, I will go through each division and showcase which players may get a TD boost for 2022. Here are my Fantasy Football: AFC East TD Projections.

Buffalo Bills

Total TD Projection: 55

Passing: 33

Rushing: 21

According to my predictions, the Bills will have the 2nd most touchdowns in the NFL during 2022. That, being said, 55 total offensive trips to the end zone would actually be 1 less than what Buffalo produced during the 2021 regular season. And while I have Josh Allen dropping from 36 to 34 passing scores, I believe the Bills will produce more rushing touchdowns than what they have in recent seasons.

Last year, Allen and Devin Singletary combined for 13 rushing touchdowns. I could see them repeating the feat, as I project both Allen and Singletary to score between 6-7 times on the ground. So I expect some consistent usage and efficiency from the two main red zone rushers. As for the rest of the RB room, I anticipate a slight increase in scoring. During the 2021 season, the Bills’ backup RB group combined for 8 total touchdowns. Alongside the incumbent Zack Moss, I could see the additions of James Cook and Duke Johnson bring the backup RB TD total to double-digits. Perhaps as many as 8 rushing scores just on the ground for that group.

Regardless of the Bills rushing proficiency near the goal-line, I still expect Stefon Diggs to be the 2022 scrimmage TD leader for Buffalo. That would not be so shocking considering that has done in each of his two seasons with the Bills. I currently project Diggs to score 9 touchdowns, but double-digits would not shock me. After all, Diggs did produce 10 receiving scores in 2021, even on fewer receptions than he had in 2020.

Following Diggs, there are three main candidates to be second on the team in receiving touchdowns. Wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Gabriel Davis, as well as tight end Dawson Knox. My best guess would be Davis because he has a short history of efficient TD scoring. On only 70 career catches, Davis has 13 receiving touchdowns. Compare that to Knox who, in 10 more games played than Davis, has 14 receiving touchdowns on 101 career receptions. Therefore, I project Davis 6 receiving touchdowns, with Crowder and Knox scoring 4 apiece.

Miami Dolphins

Total TD Projection: 41

Passing: 26

Rushing: 15

Overall, I project the Dolphins to improve their offensive scoring output from 33 touchdowns in 2021 to 41 during this upcoming season. Specifically, I have Tua Tagovailoa making a lead to a career-high 26 passing touchdowns. Considering that Tagovailoa has never produced more than 16 passing scores, this would be quite the jump. But part of that prediction is the added weapons on the offensive line, as well as Miami’s acquisition of Tyreek Hill. Because of this, I felt it fair to give Tagovailoa a modest bump in the efficiency departed.

Based on the contract he signed this offseason, it appears that Chase Edmonds will be the Dolphins’ lead back. I would expect Edmonds to pace the team in carries, and perhaps more importantly, lead the running backs in targets and receptions. Arguably Edmonds is at his best in space, or when he can be used as a receiver. However, his former team, the Cardinals, only gave him 5 career-rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. And Edmonds played 4 seasons in Arizona. But the team constantly found other options to act as the goal-line back. And I believe Miami will do the same.

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Who will be the short yardage back from the Dolphins? Well, my prediction of Miami’s rushing TD leader is Sony Michel. The other main candidate is likely Raheem Mostert. But I project Michel with 5 rushing touchdowns, while I expect Mostert will produce 3 scores on the ground. The main reason I am favoring Mochel over Mostert is that the former has a much better history of sustaining carries at the NFL level. Mostert has never even hit 140 rushing attempts in a season, while Michel has eclipsed 200 carries three times in his career. Based on their respective career rushing yardage, Michel could be expected to score around 6 touchdowns per season, while Mostert is at around half that. I also do have Edmonds contributing a pair of rushing touchdowns in 2022, alongside 2 receiving scores.

Speaking of the receiving work, it appears that there are two top targets on the Dolphins. In my projections, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only two players on the team with more than 3 receiving touchdowns. After dishing the rest of Tagovailoa’s 26 passing scores, that left 14 receiving touchdowns between both Hill and Waddle. One could easily just split those down the middle. Looking specifically at Waddle, he scored 6 touchdowns last year on 104 catches. However, it is not yet clear if Waddle will repeat the 140 targets he saw last season. So if there is an efficiency boost, it might be mitigated by a lack of opportunity. Therefore, I kept Waddle at 6 receiving touchdowns, while I gave Hill 8. I also have Hill with 1 rushing score, bringing his scrimmage TD total to 9.

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New England Patriots

Total TD Projection: 43

Passing: 25

Rushing: 18

One of the best examples of TD regression is Damien Harris. For over a decade, the NFL average is 155 scrimmage yards for every TD. Last season, Harris produced 929 rushing yards, while finding the end zone 15 times on the ground. Considering those yards, on average, Harris should have expected to get 6 touchdowns, not 15. This is where the regression comes into play, as we always try to find the mean. Yes, it is likely that Harris will have less touchdowns in 2022, but we also have to account for his ability as a player to find the end zone. Therefore, I still project Harris to lead the Patriots in scrimmage touchdowns with 9. And since he has yet to produce a receiving score, I believe that all 9 end zone trips will come off of rushing attempts.

However, Harris accounts for only half of New England’s rushing touchdown. According to my projections, Rhamondre Stevenson will also produce 5 rushing scores of his own. The remaining rushing touchdowns could come from a variety of places. Most likely the pair of rookie running backs selected by the Patriots during the 2022 NFL Draft, Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris. There is also the addition of the versatile Ty Montgomery. If he makes the team, I could see him scoring 3 touchdowns, on the ground or through the air.

Speaking of scoring through the air, Hunter Henry paced the Patriots in receiving touchdowns during the 2021 season. I have him repeating that feat, but with 6 scrimmage scores instead of the 9 Henry produced last year. As for the wide receiver position specifically, it is tricky to determine. Jakobi Meyers led the team in targets in 2021, but only produced 2 receiving touchdowns with those opportunities. While we would expect some TD regression in a positive manner for Meyers, the truth is that he has always struggled to find the end zone as a receiver in the NFL. So instead, I project that New England newcomer DeVante Parker will have the most receiving touchdowns among the team’s wide receivers.

Meanwhile, I designated 9 other touchdowns for a trio of pass catchers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Jonnu Smith. The easiest way to project was a three-way split with all three of those players getting 3 touchdowns each. The way Mac Jones operated as a rookie, he was willing to spread the ball around. I expect that to an even further extreme in 2022. My projection is that no individual Patriots pass-catcher receives more than 25% of Jones’ passing touchdowns.

New York Jets

Total TD Projection: 35

Passing: 19

Rushing: 17

Statistically, 2022 was an abysmal season for Jets rookie Zach Wilson. With a 2.3% TD rate, he failed to even hit double-digit passing touchdowns. Although in defense of Wilson’s overall stats, he did not play the entire season. With their carousel of quarterbacks, the Jets produced 20 passing touchdowns in 2021. Assuming Wilson plays all 17 games during the 2022 season, I project the team remains right around that same passing TD mark.

Where I have the Jets improving is actually with three extra rushing touchdowns, compared to last year. While I still predict the Jets will score more passing than rushing, the totals are much closer than any other AFC East team. That is mostly because of the personnel. With talented running backs added to this roster over the last couple of seasons, I expect the team will find better efficiency on the ground. Just like his fellow rookie at QB last year, Michael Carter also missed some time during his first NFL campaign. But he still managed to produce 4 rushing touchdowns in 2021. If he were to play a full season, I could see Carter improving that number, even with the additions to the roster. So my projection is for 5 rushing touchdowns, but there is added competition on this roster.

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During the 2022 NFL Draft, the Jets selected RB Breece Hall in the 2nd round. The expectation appears to be that Hall will lead the RB room from the get-go. But lead back does not always equate to workhorse. And while I expect Hall will get the first crack at goal-line opportunities, I don’t believe he will monopolize all of those touches. Therefore, I am projecting Hall to score 6 rushing touchdowns, only one more than his teammate Carter. One last point about those two running backs. I also found it difficult to know who will be the designated pass-catching back. Again, that could be a role that Hall and Carter split. So I have them with 1 receiving score each. With 6 scrimmage touchdowns, I project that Hall will lead the Jets’ offensive weapons as a rookie.

Speaking of rookies, young talent can be found all over this roster. Namely 2nd-year WR Elijah Moore, and the 10th overall selection from the recent NFL Draft, Garret Wilson. I would expect Moore to lead this receiving corps in 2022 and for Wilson to be second in line for now. Based on his rookie numbers, and set over a 17-game pace, I predict Moore will produce 6 receiving touchdowns. Like with the RB Hall, it is difficult to project Wilson since he has no NFL numbers yet. So I basically projected the rest of the pass-catchers around him and gave Wilson what was left over, which was 3. Perhaps that is too big of a gap between Moore and Wilson, but it was also difficult to find more room, considering that I only have the Jets scoring 19 times through the air.

Thank you for reading Fantasy Football: AFC East TD Projections. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.