Fantasy Football: AFC South TD Projections -

Being able to predict Touchdown production is key to fantasy football success. Here are the AFC South TD Projections.

Welcome to another installment of the 2022 Touchdown Projection series. We have already tackled the AFC East and North TD predictions. While the AFC South is not considered to be a particularly strong offensive division in the NFL, there are still some standouts. My prediction for the league scrimmage TD leader actually comes from this division. Find out who that is by reading the AFC South TD Projections below.

Houston Texans

Total TD Projection: 32

Passing: 25

Rushing: 7

In my 2022 TD projection, the Texans get the distinction of the lowest end zone output in the league. According to my predictions, Houston will only produce 32 total touchdowns on offense during this upcoming regular season. A lot of that is led by a league-worst projection of 7 rushing scores. During the 2021 season, the Texans ranked last in the league with a rate of 3.33 adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders‘ metric for evaluating the overall rushing efficiency of an offensive line. Houston had arguably the worst o-line last year and did very little to improve it this season. Considering that they only scored 8 rushing touchdowns in 2021, this year’s projection of 7 is not outrageous.

The 7 rushing scores I predict for the Texans are currently spread out among the team’s top three running backs. While it is difficult to know who will be the lead RB, my best guess would be Marlon Mack. There were a couple of seasons with the Colts where Mack produced at least 8 touchdowns. Now, that was behind a much better offensive line, but even half of that TD production could be enough to lead Houston. I have the currently split at Mack with 4 rushing scores, the rookie Dameon Pierce with 2, and Rex Burkhead with 1 TD on the ground. Specifically, the disparity between the two veterans is simply their careers so far. Mack has 20 career touchdowns in 47 games played, while Burkhead has less (17) in more than double the games played (99).

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While I have Houston suffering in the rushing department, I actually have their total offensive TD output rising from 2021. That is due to additional scoring in the passing game. With 2-year pro Davis Mills fully entrenched as the starter, he can build off of a surprising rookie campaign. His top target will undoubtedly be Brandin Cooks, whom I project to lead the Texans in scrimmage touchdowns, 7 to be specific.

After Cooks, I expect the next two pass-catchers will be rather close in TD receptions. And both are entering year two of their respective NFL career. According to my predictions, both WR Nico Collins and TE Brevin Jordan will score 4 TD catches. So the trio of Cooks, Collins, and Jordan are projected to account for 15 of Davis Mills’ 25 TD passes. If I had to pick one other player to break out, it would be Chris Conley, whom I project with 3 end zone trips.

Indianapolis Colts

Total TD Projection: 48

Passing: 27

Rushing: 21

Even though the Colts are changing quarterbacks… again, I project that their TD totals will be pretty close to last year’s. Instead of 49 offensive touchdowns, as they had in 2021, my prediction is that Indianapolis produced 48 offensive scores in 2022. Of those touchdowns, I have Jonathan Taylor accounting for over 30% on his own. This would be a slight step back for Taylor as he eclipsed the 20 TD mark and accounted for over 40% of the Colts’ end zone trips in 2021. However, with that in mind, I still project Taylor to lead the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns with 15.

In theory, Taylor could once again hit the 20 TD plateau. In my prediction, newly acquired Phillip Lindsay has 5 rushing scores. Aside from Taylor and Nyheim Hines, there were only 2 rushing touchdowns available on Indianapolis last year. Perhaps, Lindsay forces his way into more scores, but there is also a possibility that he is severely capped because of Taylor. Hines himself has 4 scrimmage touchdowns in my projections, but he has also carved a unique role on this team, as opposed to just being a backup RB.

There may be no better QB example of TD regression than Matt Ryan. Looking at the bulk of his career we can see passing TD totals fluctuate pretty frequently. Just look at Ryan’s TD rate from 2015-2019. Over that five-year period, his TD rate was as low as 3.4% and as high as 7.1%. His average TD rate from 15-19 was 4.9% which is not far off from his career average of 4.6%. And that’s where it always comes back to. For most of the quarterbacks in my projections, I am using their career average TD rates. So for Matt Ryan, 4.6% puts him right at 27 passing touchdowns, the Colt’s total from 2021.

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For the receiving touchdowns, there is really only one player that stands out. I expect Michael Pittman to lead Indianapolis in that regard with 7 scores. The next three on my projections list are Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell, and Mo Alie-Cox and I could see all of them scoring at least 3 touchdowns. Alie-Cox gets an obvious boost this year as the team’s starting TE. Meanwhile, Pierce and Campbell are both highly drafted wide receivers, with the rookie Pierce being selected this year. Because of that recent investment by this organization, I would say that Pierce is the most likely out of this trio to make it to 4 receiving scores.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Total TD Projection: 36

Passing: 21

Rushing: 15

Arguably the biggest question of the NFL offseason is what will happen to Trevor Lawrence. One of the most highly touted quarterback prospects to enter the league also had one of the worst rookie seasons for a QB. He only produced 12 passing touchdowns, as the Jaguars’ offense only totaled 25. Given that they no longer employ the worst head coach in NFL history, I would expect a reasonable uptick in efficiency. Considering that Lawrence threw over 600 times as a rookie tells me that he will likely be around the 600 pass attempt mark again. If he can hit somewhere around 3.5% TD rate (a jump from 2.0% in 2021), then Lawrence should be able to eclipse 20 touchdowns. Overall, I project the Jaguars to increase from 25 total touchdowns to 36.

As mentioned, most of that will come courtesy of a better offense allowing better QB play. But with what appears to be healthy running backs, I expect a couple more rushing touchdowns this season, compared to last. I have the leading duo of James Robinson and Travis Etienne combining for 12 scores on the ground. My current split is 7-5 in favor of Robinson. But if he returns healthy from a late-season achilles tear, I could see Robinson getting to 8 or more rushing touchdowns. For Etienne, since he has yet to play an NFL game, it is very difficult to predict his production. However, given that the strength of his profile came from the passing game, it would not shock me if he caught a couple of TD catches. So while Robinson is projected for more rushing end zone trips, I currently have both backs with 7 scrimmage scores.

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In terms of receiving touchdowns, I identified two primary candidates to lead the team in 2022. The veteran Marvin Jones, who has a long history of scoring touchdowns, and the newly acquired, and highly-paid Christian Kirk. If not for Lawrence’s low totals limiting the entire Jacksonville passing offense, I could expect either Jones or Kirk to produce 5 or 6 scores each. Instead, I currently have both projected at 4 receiving touchdowns.

After that WR duo, the next highest projected TD scorer among the pass-catchers is Evan Engram. Based on his career totals so far, I would expect Engram to produce about 4 receiving touchdowns per season. However, as I mentioned with Jones and Kirk, the Jaguars’ offense caps the upside of all its weapons. Therefore, my TD prediction for Engram would be 3 receiving scores in 2022.

Tennessee Titans

Total TD Projection: 45

Passing: 26

Rushing: 19

What a regular season it was for the Titans in 2021. They produced 45 offensive touchdowns on their route to the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Lack of post-season success aside, Tennessee looks poised for another strong year, and I have them projected with an identical TD total. Last season’s passing to rushing split was almost even with 22 scores through the air, and 23 on the ground. With Derrick Henry returning from a foot injury, I’m not sure if they will maintain that efficiency on the ground. So this year, the split changes to 26 passing touchdowns, and only 19 rushing end zone trips.

Using a similar number of attempts as last year, I project Ryan Tannehill to throw for 26 passing touchdowns. While has had his moments throughout his career, especially with the Titans, I used his career average TD rate (4.7%) in order to predict these scoring totals. That being said, I do have Tannehill hitting 30 total touchdowns by producing 4 rushing scores in 2021. Still, Derrick Henry will be the main man on the ground with what I expect to be double-digit rushing touchdowns. My current projection has Henry with 11 rushing scores, and 1 more end-zone trip through the air.

In terms of receiving touchdowns, the major complication is that most of the pass-catching corps are newcomers to the team. According to my projections, the top four players leading this team in receiving scores are all either new free agents or rookies selected during the 2022 NFL Draft. Based on his career totals so far, I predict that Robert Woods will lead Tennesse in receiving touchdowns. However, his current projection is for 5 scores through the air. That places him just marginally ahead of fellow free-agent acquisition Austin Hooper, whom I expect will score 4 times.

As for a pair of rookies, I have Treylon Burks and Kyle Phillips combining for 7 receiving touchdowns. Currently, the split in my projections is Burks with 4 and Phillips with 3. That is simply me giving the nod to a 1st-round draft pick over a day three prospect. Still, the lack of scoring pedigree among the incumbent wide receivers tells me that both rookies will quickly climb this depth chart. According to my projections, there is no other Titans player with more than 2 receiving touchdowns.

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– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.