2022 NFL Team Preview: Houston Texans

Of all the teams in the NFL, the Houston Texans sure are one of them. They have their share of veterans, some more proven than others. They also have, perhaps, more than their share of young talent spread across the roster. That said, their team identity is somewhat of an enigma. Head coach Lovie Smith takes the reins for 2022 after coordinating the defense for the 2021 squad that finished with a 4-13 record.

Davis Mills, for at least this year, has full control of the offense without having to look over his shoulder to see which veteran quarterback is waiting in the wings. Let’s take a look at what else is different in 2022.

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Offseason Acquisitions and Trades

GM Nick Caserio is quickly becoming a fan favorite in Houston. Caserio took over the job in January 2021 and was immediately met with challenges, most notably Deshaun Watson‘s situation. At first, Watson simply wanted out of Houston and opted not to play. That was enough of a distraction on its own; add in Watson’s notorious off-field choices and Caserio had an exacerbated problem to handle. He did so expertly, holding Watson in 2021 before sending him to Cleveland this spring in return for five draft picks – including three first-rounders from 2022 to 2024.

The Texans also quietly had an active free agency period, bringing in (or retaining) several veterans to help stabilize the franchise. Among those veterans were cornerback Steven Nelson, guard A.J. Cann, linebackers Blake Cashman and Christian Kirksey, defensive end Jerry Hughes, fullback Andy Janovich, and running back Marlon Mack. None of those moves were big splashes that grabbed headlines, but all are solid moves that, at minimum, provide some depth for the team to work with.

2022 Draft

Additionally, the Texans were able to use their own first-round pick this NFL Draft for the first time since 2019, which landed them cornerback Derek Stingley. Stingley will join a secondary with Nelson and Desmond King, as well as fellow rookie Jalen Pitre at safety. They won’t be an elite group right away, but there is notable improvement in that group (on paper) from last season. The Texans also – after trading back with Cleveland’s pick – took offensive lineman Kenyon Green at 15th overall. Green, alongside Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard, figures to form a respectable offensive line. Like the free agency moves, these acquisitions offered little in terms of headline material, but they appeared to be steps in the right direction for a franchise that’s made few of them since blowing a 24-0 lead to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2020 playoffs.

Perhaps the biggest loss for Houston before the season even begins is second-round receiver John Metchie, who is doubtful for the season following a leukemia diagnosis. Davis Mills still got more help though, with the addition of Florida running back Dameon Pierce in the fourth round. Pierce is an upside pick – he totaled only 374 touches in four seasons at Florida, yet he racked up 28 total touchdowns (including 16 in 2021). He might not start in the season opener, but the Texans’ backfield boasts few roadblocks to Pierce playing his way into a bigger role.

Assessing Losses

The Texans added a lot of talent this offseason, but lost their share as well. The first changes were the firing of head coach David Culley and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly at the season’s end. Safety Justin Reid, arguably the best player on the team’s defense over the last two seasons, left Houston for Kansas City in free agency. Cornerback Lonnie Johnson joined him there via trade, in return for a conditional 2024 seventh-round pick.

Watson’s departure was made official this offseason, but he was effectively gone long before he was traded. More pertinent to the Texans quarterback room was allowing Tyrod Taylor to walk and bringing in Kyle Allen to serve as backup to Mills.

What’s Still There

Pep Hamilton joined the Texans staff as offensive coordinator, but the passing game will feature many returning names in 2022. Mills should lead the charge for a full season, and his connection with Brandin Cooks was one of the Texans’ few bright spots in 2021. Nico Collins played sparingly at receiver in 2021 after being selected 89th overall in the draft, but has impressed so far in camp this year. Other names that stuck around in the offense include running back Rex Burkhead, receiver Chris Conley, and tight end Pharaoh Brown. Hamilton’s installation as coordinator will bring scheme changes – despite his presence on the staff in 2021 – but the consistency in Mills and the pieces around him should make that transition easier.

The front seven of the defense will also return several familiar faces from 2021. Defensive end Jonathan Greenard contributed 8 sacks last season, while tackle Maliek Collins added a career-high 9 tackles for loss in his first year with the team. Roy Lopez played 46 percent of the defensive snaps last season at defensive tackle after being taken in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Behind them, the returning Kirksey and Kamu Grugier-Hill lead a linebacker room that saw several new additions. Christian Harris will likely find playing time at linebacker as well after joining the team as a third-round draft pick. The defense should improve in 2022 – it might not be great, but the pieces are there for significant improvement from 2021.

2022 Opponents – A Brief Overview

By all accounts, the Texans’ 2022 schedule looks pretty friendly to them. That’s par for the course after finishing third in a weak AFC South in 2021. Of their first five upcoming opponents, only the Colts and Chargers finished 2021 with a winning record  – with each barely doing so at 9-8. Of course, that doesn’t account for Denver’s addition of quarterback Russell Wilson, which figures to make them a dramatically better team. The remaining two games are dates in Chicago and Jacksonville. The Texans could reasonably win three, maybe even four, of those games.

Granted, those first five games might not matter too much even if they go well. The Texans have an early bye in Week 6, and the rest of the schedule features games against the Titans, Chiefs, Raiders, Dolphins, Browns, Cowboys, and Eagles. I think the Texans will surprise people with how competitive they are in those games, but they likely won’t win a ton of them.

Overall Outlook

This will very much be a developmental year, where the Texans will prioritize assessing their young players over racking up wins. They’ll be fine with winning if it happens, but the ceiling for a team with this roster is around 9 wins and a wildcard playoff berth. The Bengals went from worst to first and shocked the league with a Super Bowl berth in 2021, but the Texans’ current pieces don’t boast a level of talent reminiscent of theirs.

More likely, the Texans’ record in 2022 won’t fall far from their record in 2021. I think they can add a win or two and make things more interesting at the bottom of the AFC South, but they’re still a season or two away from a return as a playoff threat. Their best, with a little luck, is probably 10-7, while their worst is probably 1-16. For a prediction, let’s split the difference at 6-11.