Fantasy Football: NFC North TD Projections -

NFL players probably dream of scoring touchdowns, while fantasy football managers are hoping the same. But where will these scores come from? Find out in with the NFC North TD Projections.

As we are more than halfway through this fantasy football TD Projection series, let us continue onward. After hitting the East, we are now headed to the NFC North TD Projections.

Chicago Bears

Total TD Projection: 34

Passing: 21

Rushing: 13

After a disastrous season where they only just made it to 30 offensive touchdowns, I have a bit of a boost for the Bears’ offense. A small bump to 34 touchdowns to be exact, the but biggest impact I expect will be in the passing game. Like other young quarterbacks, I increased Justin Fields‘ TD% above where he was a rookie. Even with potentially limited volume, I project Field will surpass the 20 passing touchdown plateau. And putting him right in line with other 2nd-year signal-callers, I have Fields with 25 total scores thanks to 4 rushing touchdowns.

Truthfully, because I expect only 21 passing touchdowns from Fields, there are not many scoring opportunities available from his weapons. Therefore, I only project two Chicago skill-position players will produce more scrimmage scores than Fields’ 4. First on that list is RB David Montgomery, whom I predict will find the end zone 8 times in 2022. He has never failed to hit 7 touchdowns in a season, and that includes last year when Montgomery only played in 13 games.

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The only other Bears player with more scrimmage touchdowns than Fields’ 4 rushing scores is his likely top target. Last season, Darnell Mooney caught 81 passes on 140 targets. As long as he can get that type of augmented opportunity in the Chicago passing attack, Mooney should increase his catch rate as he grows alongside his young QB. At the very least, I have Mooney producing a career-high 5 receiving touchdowns.

After Mooney, I project Cole Kmet will be 2nd of the Bears in receiving scores with 3. This coming after a season where Kmet failed to find the end zone even once. But considering he produced 612 receiving yards, he should have been expected to score several touchdowns in 2022. Now that he clearly sits atop the TE depth chart, look for Kmet to get the red zone chances. Certainly more than newcomers Dante Pettis, Tajae Sharpe, and rookie Velus Jones. I project all three of those wide receivers will score 2 touchdowns each.

Detroit Lions

Total TD Projection: 38

Passing: 26

Rushing: 12

As part of their 3-win season in 2021, the Lions only scored 35 offensive touchdowns. I project that they will marginally increase to 38 total scores. I’m not sure if that equates to more wins, but we are here more for fantasy football. One player who may be a borderline 1st-round pick in 2022 fantasy drafts is D’Andre Swift. By my TD projections, Swift may not exactly live up to 1st round status as I predict as many as 15 players will produce more scrimmage touchdowns than Swift’s 10. However, if Swift does catch enough passes, then he may still rise up the fantasy rankings.

In my projections, after Swift, there is a 4-way tie for 2nd place among Detroit’s scrimmage touchdowns. I expect D.J. Chark, T.J. Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Bown will each catch 5 passes for end zone trips. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams ends up with a combination of 3 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns, to match that trio of pass-catchers. If I had to pick a favorite out of those four players to outproduce these TD numbers, it’s St. Brown. With only one NFL season under his belt, we do not yet know what St. Brown’s career averages will be. I don’t believe 5 touchdowns is too low, but I could see the case when I am under-projecting his numbers. A second season of data will give us much more information.

Speaking of second seasons, Jared Goff is about to depart his 2nd campaign leading the Lions. Goff has been a QB long enough that I relied on his career average TD rate of 4.3%. There was some temptation to use last year’s 3.8% TD rate, but Goff deserves the benefit of the doubt after joining Detroit last season. So a jump to 26 touchdown passes does not seem unreasonable. Especially when adding a rookie like Jameson Williams. Now, Williams is recovering from an injury, so I only have him with 2 receiving touchdowns. Still, I believe he will have an impact on this team once he takes the field.

Green Bay Packers

Total TD Projection: 51

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Passing: 35

Rushing:16

One of the biggest offseason storylines in the NFL was the Packers trading away their start WR to the Raiders. What kind of effects will that have on Green Bay’s passing attack? Specifically from Aaron Rodgers‘ perspective, I see very little change. That is because, throughout this TD projections series, I have used career average TD rates in order to determine passing play production. So while Rodgers lost his top target, I still used his career average TD rate of 6.3%.

If anything, the effects of losing their top WR will be felt by the other receivers. Instead of having one player soak up a bunch of receiving touchdowns, I believe it will be more of a group effort and the production will be more evenly spread out. In 9 of the last 12 seasons, the Packers have had at least one pass-catcher with double-digit receiving touchdowns. However, I do not expect any Green Bay players to eclipse 6 receiving touchdowns. My current predictions are that Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard will pace the team with 6 TD catches apiece. This is followed by Sammy Watkins, with 5 reception scores, and Robert Tonyan with 4 end zone trips through the air.

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As I have mentioned in previous articles from this series, arguably the most difficult part of this exercise is projections for the incoming rookies. For individual scrimmage TD numbers, I am using players’ career yards and TD production as a basis for my numbers. However, since the rookies are entering with a blank slate, we have to get creative when guessing their potential production. I have the duo of Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson combining for 5 receiving touchdowns in this offense. Currently, the split is 3 in favor of Doubs, and 2 for Watson. While the draft capital would certainly point towards Watson, he has missed most of training camp with a knee injury. While he was recently activated off the PUP list this week, he is still likely behind his other teammates, including Doubs

One of the most talked about running back questions is the upcoming split between A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones. While Dillon has an impressive physical stature, I still believe Jones is the better technical runner. In my opinion, Jones reads the blocks just a little faster than Dillon, and also has the quick twitch burst to power through the holes as they are created by the offensive line. Most of all, Jones has a nose for the end zone that I expect he will fully utilize once again in 2022. My projections actually have Jones doubling (12 to 6) Dillon’s total touchdowns from the upcoming season.

Minnesota Vikings

Total TD Projection: 51

Passing: 36

Rushing: 15

Yes, you read that right. I have both the Vikings and Packers projected for the same number of touchdowns in 2022. Only I have Minnesota with one additional passing TD compared to Green Bay. I believe this year Kirk Cousins will lead the NFC North in TD passes with 36. Call it the Justin Jefferson effect, if you will, but the young WR has certainly had a positive impact on his QB. Since Jefferson joined the Vikings, Cousins’ TD rate is at 6.4%, which is what I projected him at. As a result, Jefferson is one of 4 NFL wide receivers I predict will score at least 12 touchdowns. I have already mentioned one of those wide receivers in the AFC North article.

In these TD predictions, I have Jefferson sharing the team lead for scrimmage scores, alongside Dalvin Cook. After a down year with only 6 total touchdowns, I expect Cook to rebound to double-digit end zone trips. The current split is 10 rushing scores, and 2 receiving touchdowns, returning closer to what he produced in 2019 and 2020. As for his backup Alexander Matison, I project only 4 scrimmage touchdowns (3 on the ground, 1 through the air).

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Adam Thielen finished next on Minnesota by catching 9 touchdowns in my projections. Honestly, I would not be shocked if he hit double-digits as well, considering that he has done that in each of the past two seasons. Now, what is strange is that Thielen had never produced more than 9 receiving touchdowns before Jefferson was drafted. So is Thielen experiencing a positive impact from the Jefferson effect? And will that continue in 202? Based on my numbers, I would say yes to both.

Rounding out the rest of the receiving corps, I project that K.J. Osborn will finish 3rd on the team strictly in receiving touchdowns (4th in scrimmage scores) with 4 end zone trips. Whether looking at the Vikings offense, or the system new head coach Kevin O’Connell comes from, three wide receivers are often used. So I would rather invest in Osborn than in TE Irv Smith for instance. Now, Smith doesn’t fall far behind in my projected touchdowns with 3, but that is also the same number as WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette. So if I had to roster any Vikings skill-position players outside of Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen, it would have to be Osborn.

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– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.