Maple Leafs’ Road To Playoff Success Again Goes Through Florida

As NHL training camps loom just around the corner, it’s as good a time as any to summarize each of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Atlantic Division rivals and figure out who their toughest divisional opponents are going to be in the 2022-23 season.

We’ll go in reverse order, from the weakest Atlantic team to the frontrunners – of which the Leafs are going to be one:

THE HAVE-NO-FEAR ATLANTIC TEAMS

Montreal: The Canadiens aren’t going to be as pathetic as they were last season – indeed, how can you be worse than, or even as bad as the worst team in the 2021-22 regular season, which the Habs were? – but projecting them as a playoff team, or even a contender for a playoff berth, is a stretch of massive proportions. With or without star goalie Carey Price (and at this point, it’s likelier to be without), the Habs are in the midst of a full-on rebuild under new GM Kent Hughes and head coach Martin St. Louis, and we’re probably going to see them trade away more veteran pieces before we see them rise in the Atlantic standings.

There will still be an emotional rivalry between the Leafs and Canadiens – there always will be – but the Leafs are far more talented, and far deeper, than the Habs. For at least this season, and probably next season, this Original Six rivalry will be rather one-sided.

Buffalo: They always seem to play the Leafs very competitively, but the Sabres aren’t that far ahead of the Canadiens in terms of being in a massive rebuild, and although they finished the 2021-22 campaign with promise, Buffalo simply doesn’t have the depth of talent, especially in goal, to challenge the other Atlantic Division teams for a post-season slot. They do have a pair of dynamic young defensemen in rookie Owen Power and veteran Rasmus Dahlin, and evolving young forwards including Tage Thompson, Peyton Krebs, Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, but they’re a small group – five of their top-12 forwards are shorter than six feet – and GM Kevyn Adams will probably take a hard look at trading veterans Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo, both of who will be unrestricted free agents next summer.

As noted, Buffalo’s weakest area is in net. Journeyman Craig Anderson is 41 years old, and new No. 2 Eric Comrie is no savior. Together last season, they combined to play only 50 games, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Anderson was injured at some point. All-in-all, the Sabres are a dog’s breakfast of players-on-the-rise and players-in-their-twilight, and for that reason, they’re not going to challenge the Leafs for one of the top three slots in the Atlantic. They will put up more of a fight against Toronto, but that’s a baby step on a road to respectability that has very long to go.

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THE GENUINE PLAYOFF THREATS

Detroit: It’s been a brutal six years without playoff hockey in the Motor City, but Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman was one of the busier GMs this off-season, and as a result, Detroit looks like they’ll be legitimate challengers for a post-season berth. Yzerman signed unrestricted free agents David Perron, Andrew Copp, Ben Chiarot and Olli Maatta to new contracts, and he traded for (and signed) former Nashville netminder Ville Husso to be the Wings’ starter. Those additions, along with cornerstone center Dylan Larkin, rookie-of-the-year defenseman Moritz Seider, superb first-year winger Lucas Raymond and veterans Jakub Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi give Detroit two very solid forward lines and two above-average defense pairings to build on.

Now, everyone knows Detroit’s defense was a massive disaster last season, which is why Yzerman went out and landed Husso. The 27-year-old Finn will be pushed for playing time by 26-year-old returnee Alex Nedeljkovic, but Husso will earn $4.75-million this year (as compared to Nedeljkovic’s $3-million salary), and he’ll be given every opportunity to establish himself as the Wings’ top goalie. So long as he ends up holding up his end of the relationship, Husso will push Detroit into playoff contention, and possibly outlast Ottawa and Boston for the fourth and final playoff berth in the Atlantic. Again, the Leafs have little to fear from Detroit in terms of passing them in the standings, but the gap between playoff and non-playoff teams will be smaller this season.

Ottawa: The Senators may well have had the best off-season of any NHL team, adding genuine star forwards Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat via free agency and a trade respectively, then landing veteran goalie Cam Talbot to give them a solid one-two punch (alongside Anton Forsberg) between the pipes. Ottawa’s group of young forwards, including Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle, will get a huge boost from Giroux and DeBrincat. They’re going to present a new threat to the Leafs, even if they don’t quite match Toronto’s output in the Atlantic standings.

If there is a problem area for Ottawa, it’s their defense corps. Star Thomas Chabot is only 25, and Erik Brannstrom is just 22, but the Sens have an untradeable contract in 30-year-old Nikita Zaitsev, and veterans Nick Holden and Travis Hamonic are well into their thirties. Senators GM Pierre Dorion still has more than $7.9 million in salary cap space, but some of that will have to go to restricted free agents Alex Formenton and Brannstrom; still, you can see Dorion be a player for a talent like Arizona D-man Shayne Gostisbehere during the season. Ownership has followed through on its stated intent to pay for top talent, and Dorion has the flexibility to still make a splash. The Sens aren’t going to be easy for Toronto to topple in the regular season, but they still have a way to go before being a legit playoff threat that can eliminate the Leafs.

Boston: Where Detroit and Ottawa are two playoff contenders on the rise, the Bruins are a playoff contender on the decline. Star Bruins Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy will begin the season sidelined by injuries, and with the return of veteran centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, Boston’s core is older than most. Their defense corps doesn’t have much depth, and their collection of forwards has some busts (Nick Foligno) and blue-collar types (Craig Smith) and aren’t particularly big (six of their top 12 forwards are six feet tall or shorter).

The Bruins always play Toronto with ferocity, but the Leafs are a faster, deeper squad than Boston is. New Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery and starting goalie Jeremy Swayman aren’t going to will this team into the post-season, and any additional injuries they sustain could spell the end of their six-season playoff streak. Regression happens to virtually every NHL team eventually, and we may see Boston finally come back to earth and finish well behind the Buds this coming year.

TORONTO’S BIGGEST RIVALS

Tampa Bay: We saw what happened to the Lightning’s doubters last season, when the Bolts went on another incredible playoff run before falling to Colorado in the Cup Final. The Leafs nearly knocked off Tampa in the opening round, but once superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy found his footing late in the series, the Lightning soared. That’s exactly how this coming season may play out.

Tampa Bay had to shear off some of its depth this summer, most notably saying goodbye to clutch winger Ondrej Palat in free agency, and trading D-man Ryan McDonagh to Nashville, essentially, for cap space. Lightning GM Julien BriseBois essentially replaced them with a full year of forward Nick Paul and a veteran in Ian Cole, but it’s clear the Bolts aren’t going to be quite as dominant in the regular season.

However, when you’ve got a superb head coach in Jon Cooper, legitimate superstars in Vasilevskiy, blueliner Victor Hedman and forwards Brayden Point and Nitika Kucherov, as well as solid support types in winger Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev, you’ve got a chance to win games when they count the most. It’s entirely possible the Leafs have to square off against the Lightning in the 2023 playoffs, and so long as Vasilevskiy is on his game, Toronto could be in trouble against them once again.

Florida: For a team that finished first overall in the NHL standings last season, the Panthers have made an awful lot of moves this summer: first, they hired a new head coach in respected bench boss Paul Maurice; then, they dealt star winger Jonathan Huberdeau and D-man MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary in exchange for star winger Matthew Tkachuk; and although free agency saw them lose youngster Mason Marchment to Dallas and Giroux to Ottawa, the Panthers did address their depth concerns by signing forwards Nick Cousins and Colin White, and blueliner Marc Staal (as well as signing Staal’s brother, Eric, to a professional tryout contract).

In sum, the Panthers aren’t as good as their lineup was last season, but GM Bill Zito’s team has the fresh disappointment of being swept by the Lightning in the second round. Tkachuk gives Florida more edge than Huberdeau did, but when it comes to the Leafs, it’s now feasible that Toronto pushes past them in the standings. The playoffs, of course, are another story altogether, and while it’s almost a certainty the road to playoff success goes through the Sunshine State for the Leafs, Toronto now has an opening in the standings through which to bypass the Panthers and secure home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. It will come down to Toronto’s new goaltending duo of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, but the Buds have the depth and experience to get to the second round and beyond.

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