Fantasy Football: NFC West TD Projections -

As the NFL season approaches, touchdowns are as important as ever, especially for fantasy football. Here are the NFC West TD Projections.

After going through all four AFC divisions and three NFC divisions, we finally arrive at the last part of the Fantasy Football Touchdown series. Read on as I attempt to predict each team’s TD output for the NFL 2022 season. I also break down each team into individual player production. Here are the NFC West TD Projections.

Arizona Cardinals

Total TD Projection: 50

Passing: 28

Rushing: 22

Make it an even 50 two years in a row for the Cardinals. That’s right, in 2021 Arizona scored 50 offensive touchdowns. My 2022 projections have them producing the exact same number, with a slight change to the pass-run split. I expect Kyler Murray to increase his passing TD total to 28. That would actually be a career-high for the young QB, and that is mostly because of volume. I actually placed the Cardinals at around 580 pass attempts, which would be a jump for Murray considering that he has never eclipsed 560 throwing attempts in a season.

As for the TD rate, Murray has put up 4.7% and 5.0% in the previous two seasons respectively. So while I predict that Murray will start to push boundaries on his passing ceiling, I still don’t expect him to hit 30 touchdowns through the air. Now, 30 total touchdowns is certainly an attainable goal as I project Murray to produce 6 rushing scores. And while Murray has the potential to put up even more than that, I expect lead RB James Conner to have another productive TD season. Last year he produced 18 total touchdowns, including 15 on the ground. While I expect some negative regression, I still project Conner for double-digit rushing scores and 12 total touchdowns overall.

In terms of receiving scores, there appear to be 4 principal targets on the Cardinals. However, considering all of the talent already on the roster, it might be surprising that it is the newcomer Marquise Brown who leads the team in my projections with 6 receiving touchdowns. Now, that is not a massive disparity as I expect that there are 2 other pass-catchers with 5 scores through the air on the team. Currently, I have Zach Ertz and DeAndre Hopkins with 5 receiving touchdowns apiece. Over his career pace, Hopkins should be expected to finish a full season with more than 5 scores. However, Hopkins’ 6-game suspension complicates things. Therefore, I calculated his career pace over 11 games instead of 17 as I do for other players, which led to 5 receiving touchdowns.

After that trio, there are 3 more wide receivers who I have combining for 7 receiving touchdowns in my projections. Specifically, there is the veteran AJ Green as well as a pair of younger pass-catchers in Rondale Moore and Antoine Wesley. I gave Green the edge because partially because of his long productive career in the NFL. However, I did not want to lean too heavily into past seasons since he has not even hit 4 touchdowns since 2018. As for the 4 receiving touchdowns that Moore and Wesley combined for last year, they will repeat that mark but will be evenly split with 2 each.

Los Angeles Rams

Total TD Projection: 47

Passing: 36

Rushing: 11

After going all the way and winning the Super Bowl in 2021, I project the Rams offense to take a slight step back. So instead of the 51 offensive touchdowns that they produced during the previous regular season, I have them with 47 scores. The biggest dip for the team comes in the passing game as Matthew Stafford drops from 41 passing touchdowns to only 36. And this is even after giving Stafford a bump for his TD rate. Normally, I try to stick to a quarterback’s career average TD rate, especially for veteran signal-callers. However, Stafford’s 6.8% TD rate in 2021 was the highest of his career. Probably not a coincidence since that was the best team he has been on. So instead of his career average 4.7% TD rate, I went with 5.8% since felt it was fair to be closer to last year’s total.

Naturally, one of the TD regression candidates is Cooper Kupp. Certainly, after leading the league with 16 receiving scores, Kupp is likely due for fewer end zone trips in 2022. Still considering that he saw 191 targets, and produced 1,947 receiving yards, Kupp did not have a ridiculous TD total. Considering the rest of his production, Kupp should have been expected to get 14 touchdowns last season. So a large adjustment is not necessarily needed. In fact, Kupp is one of four wide receivers that I have with 12 touchdowns through the air. Alongside pass-catchers in the AFC North, NFC North, and NFC South, Kupp would be one of my prime candidates to lead the league in receiving scores.

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Behind Kupp, it is the newcomer Allen Robinson that I expect will be 2nd on the Rams in touchdowns. That is because based on the current roster composition, there is no one else besides Kupp that has an extended history of TD production in the NFL. My projection of 8 touchdowns for Robinson doesn’t even come close to his career-best of 14 scores. So 8 is certainly within the realm of possibility. Again, aside from Kupp, Robinson would double-up any other Rams pass-catchers in terms of total touchdowns. Both TE Tyler Higbee and WR Van Jefferson have 4 receiving scores in my projections. However, since both are dealing with injuries, they could even struggle to hit that number. And if either of those misses time during the regular season, it likely just means more touchdowns for Kupp and Robinson.

In spite of the total team dip, I actually have the Rams scoring 1 more rushing TD as a team. The most obvious reason for that is the return of Cam Akers. He was expected to get a major workload before suffering an Achilles injury. Now healthy again, I have Akers producing a career-high 8 touchdowns in 2022. However, I think Darrell Henderson will still be involved as I expect him to score 5 total touchdowns. The area where Henderson will most frustrate Akers’ fantasy managers is likely in the passing game. According to my projections, Henderson actually outscores Akers 2-to-1 in receiving touchdowns. And that is mostly because of the lack of targets for Akers throughout his career so far. Including the playoffs, Alers has played in 18 NFL games but has only 28 catches. For reference sake, Henderson had 29 receptions in only 12 games just last season.

San Francisco 49ers

Total TD Projection: 40

Passing: 21

Rushing:19

Will Jimmy Garoppolo get traded? Or get released? Well, the recent contract restructure means that the latter is no longer an option. But the reality is while we await a potential trade, Garoppolo is on the 49ers roster. Now for my TD projections, this has no effect as I have Trey Lance starting all 17 games regardless. Yes, there is a much greater likelihood of Lance getting benched with Garoppolo on the team, but it would also be difficult to know exactly when that will be.

Not that it was an easy task projecting Lance’s numbers. I dropped his TD rate down to 4.5% after a ridiculous 7.0% TD rate that he produced as a rookie. That was also over 3 starts, so I doubt that Lance would be able to sustain that over 17 games. All-in-all, Lance ends up with 21 passing touchdowns in my projections, as well as 3 scores on the ground.

With regards specifically to scrimmage touchdowns, there is a tie among the San Francisco leaders. Both RB Elijah Mitchell and WR Deebo Samuel have 8 scrimmage scores in my projections. Looking at their respective contracts, that may seem obvious for Samuel considering his recent extension. However, since Mitchell was a 6th-round selection in last year’s draft, it was not difficult for the 49ers to draft over him as they took an RB in the 3rd round in back-to-back years. In spite of that though, I still expect Mitchell to remain as the team’s lead back. In only 11 games last season, Mitchell received over 200 carries. During the Kyle Shanahan era in San Francisco, there has only been one other RB to eclipse 150 carries (barely) in an entire season. All to say, Shanahan has not used an RB like Mitchell before.

While I project Samuel with 8 total touchdowns, his split is 5 through the air and 3 on the ground. That means that George Kittle is the projected leader for the team’s receiving scores, with 6. Next on the list is Brandon Aiyuk with 5 scrimmage touchdowns. Like his fellow WR Samuel, I have Aiyuk scoring on the ground. However, unlike Samuel who I expect will do that multiple times in 2022, I only have Aiyuk with 1 rushing TD. But looking at the receiving scores, my projections have the trio of Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel combining to catch 15 of Lance’s 21 passing touchdowns. So not much left for the rest of the team.

Seattle Seahawks

Total TD Projection: 31

Passing: 19

Rushing: 12

Save the least for last. That’s how the saying goes right? Well, that’s the order we are following here as we reach the final team in the TD Projections series. The Seahawks finish dead last in my scoring expectations with only 31 offensive touchdowns. Regardless of who gets the starting job, I see little difference between the two main quarterbacks on the roster. And that is not a good thing. Drew Lock sports a 3.4% career TD rate, while Geno Smith‘s is not much better at 3.5%. I rounded up and used 3.5% TD rate to give a team total of 19 passing touchdowns.

Of those 19 scores through the air, I expect Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf will combine to catch over half of them. Meanwhile, no other Seattle player has more than 2 receiving touchdowns in my projections. And if you include the 2 touchdowns I have for TE Noah Fant, the top trio accounts for almost 75% of the Seahawks’ receiving scores. Currently, that is 7 receiving touchdowns for Metcalf and 5 for Lockett.

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Looking at the run game now, there is a main duo in Seattle. Former 1st-round pick Rashaad Penny is back on a 1-year contract after his rookie deal expired. Meanwhile, the Seahawks also drafted Ken Walker in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Based purely on the film evaluation and talent of both backs, I would lean towards Walker being more talented and thus taking over the backfield quickly. Therefore in my initial projections, I had Walker with more touchdowns than Penny. However, Walker is currently dealing with an injury, which means Penny may get a workhorse shot to start the season before Walker arrives on the scene. So in the end, I predict Penny will score 5 touchdowns while Walker will only produce 4.

Thank you for reading NFC West TD Projections. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.