Fantasy Football: Early Goal-Line Guide

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Touchdowns and the opportunity to score them are so key for Fantasy Football. So here is a Fantasy Football: Early Goal-Line Guide look.

Last season, I began to track team TD totals in my Goal-Line Guide. Specifically, touchdowns on plays from inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. hence the term Goal-Line Guide. I identified every rush and every pass attempt that each team had at the goal-line in order to see their TD efficiency. I also determined the goal-line defenses for each team with the same process, total number of rushing attempts and passes, and how often those defenses allowed touchdowns. While, I will not be publishing full Goal-Line Grades until Week 5, here is Fantasy Football: Early Goal-Line Guide.

While we can take important information from Week 1, there is also a lot still missing. For instance, there were 8 teams who did not even get one snap inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. That’s a lot of zeros across the board so it makes the Goal-Line Guide creation rather difficult. So that is why I am waiting until Week to fully publish the Goal-Line Guide grades. However, we can still take away some information from the limited data we do have.

Commanding Chiefs

During Week 1, there were three teams with 4 pass attempts from inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. However, only one team actually found the end zone more than once through the air. That team was the Chiefs with 100% TD efficiency on goal-line passing plays. Patrick Mahomes connected on all 4 pass attempts inside the 5, and they were all for touchdowns.

In Week 1, there were three other teams with multiple goal-line touchdowns. But all three of those teams produced those scores on the ground. We will get to those teams in just a minute. The interesting aspect of Kansas City’s 4 passing touchdowns are the three different receivers who caught those balls. No it was not the big-name TE, or a highly sought after free agent WR who produced touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. Instead you had backup Jody Fortson score one of those touchdowns, while the highly drafted WR Mecole Hardman broke out and score another. However, half of Mahomes’ 4 touchdowns passes inside the 5 went to RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Both Edwards-Helaire and Hardman needed bounce back season in order for Kansas City to justify using high draft selections on both. And I would say both stepped up to start the 2022 season.

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Run Eagles Run

Philadelphia’s offense had a league-high 10 opportunities inside the opponent’s 5 -yard line during Week 1. Looking at last year’s Goal-Line Guide season recap, the Eagles led the league in rushing attempts inside the 5, as well as goal-line touchdowns on the ground. So it is no surprise that the team would continue its run-heavy approach as they approach the end zone. Of their 10 goal-line opportunities, Philadelphia ran the ball 7 times in that area. Considering that they scored 4 rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line, it is logical that they would run so much. On the 3 pass attempts inside the 5-yard line, the Eagles did not score a single TD.

While Jalen Hurts did not get the goal-line touchdowns through the air, he still ran one in. But in typical Philadelphia fashion, there were 4 different runners to score on each of those 4 touchdowns. That includes running backs Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott.

Clearly the Eagles make the short-yardage running a priority as part of their red zone offense. Like last season, the team appears content with running over and over near the goal-line. While that did lead to 4 rushing touchdowns, their efficiency is not the best because of that volume. 57% TD rate to be exact, which is actually less than their Week 1 opponent, Detroit. The Lions produced 2 rushing touchdowns on only 3 attempts inside the 5-yard line. While their TD rate is not the best right now, Philadelphia will still be the premier rushing team near the goal-line because of pure volume.

Grounded Falcons

During Week 1, Atlanta did not attempt a single pass-attempt inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Instead they had 100% rushing efficiency at the goal-line with 2 touchdowns on two carries. Among the teams with multiple rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, the Falcons are the only team to score on every run. One of these was curtsey of RB Cordarrelle Patterson. However, the other TD on the ground came from QB Marcus Mariota. Now it was only 2 rushing attempts, but so far the team is showing a willingness to run the football near the goal-line. Similar to the Eagles, Atlanta has a QB with the rushing skill set that can allow him to find the end zone with his legs. So even on what might be a passing play call, Mariota could keep any goal-line drop back for him self.

The main takeaway from both the Falcons and Philadelphia is to avoid to flyer chances on pass-catchers. For Atlanta specifically, Kyle Pitts will probably started in fantasy football lineups most weeks. And the rookie Drake London will likely also be in consideration. However, I would rather look elsewhere for injury or bye week replacements at WR or TE. For now, that goes for the Eagles as much as it does for the Falcons.

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