Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 3 -

Touchdown production is a key factor to NFL sucess. Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 3 can help you out.

With 2 weeks of NFL games so far in 2022, we some data on how teams operate inside the red zone. Specifically for this article series, I am looking at all offensive plays from inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Identifying not only which teams run the most plays near the goal-line, but also which franchises have been most effective in that area. Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 3 can help identify a few key teams to target, as well as situations to avoid.

Calling Cards

Through two weeks of NFL action, there are 11 teams with at least 3 rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Of those 11 teams, only the Arizona Cardinals have achieved 100% TD rate on their carries. In fact, the Cardinals have found the end zone more often than certain teams who have run three times as many opportunities near the goal line. Only Philadelphia, who was featured in last week’s article, have more goal-line rushing touchdowns than Arizona’s 3.

In reality, this should come as no surprise. Over the past few seasons, the Cardinals have had an excellent short-yardage rushing offense. Since Kyler Murray‘s rookie season, there has been a lot of rushing touchdowns for both the franchise QB, and whoever has the role of lead-back. Taking into account James Conner‘s injury, I think it is best to pick up, Darrel Williams. After Conner left the game with his ankle injury, it was Darrel Williams who received a carry inside the 5-yard line (on which he scored a TD). If Conner is forced to miss time, than Williams could experience some spike weeks in fantasy production.

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Taking Command

Going over to the passing game, there is only one team with 100% TD rate of passing attempts inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Of course, it’s the Washington Commanders, as expected. But in all seriousness, Carson Wentz Stats has only thrown two passes at the goal-line, but both went for touchdowns. So, while we give credit where credit is due, let’s also understand that context.

And while we are handing out praise, let’s take the time to shout out Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, both of whom have added to this receiving corps. Dotson was a 1st-round selection is the 2022 NFL Draft, while Samuel was injured most of last season. They have each been the recipient of targets inside the 5-yard line. Having three productive wide receivers is key for Wentz current fantasy success. As long as he has access to those weapons, Wentz should be a solid option in starting lineups.

Before we get to the disappointing teams, I just want to highlight that the Chiefs and the Eagles currently lead the NFL in overall goal-line touchdowns with 5 apiece. Meanwhile, the Cardinals and the Lions both have 4 each.

Deceiving Denver

It was not the hot start that Denver Broncos fans were hoping for. The first two games of the Russell Wilson era can be viewed as a disappointment, especially near the goal-line. So far, the Broncos have run 9 plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line and did have not scored a single TD on any of them. In a still young NFL season, Denver is one of only three teams who have produced 0 goal-line touchdowns in 2022. And the other two teams (Texans & Seahawks) have combined for 1 snap inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Again, the Broncos have had 9 opportunities near the Goal-Line. It is almost unbelievable that they have not yet converted on any of those chances.

Denver’s odds do not look any better in Week 3 as the face the 49ers, especially in the run game. Among the defenses that have allowed opponents to run the ball inside their own 5-yard line, San Francisco has surrendered the lowest TD rate (22%). On 9 goal-line rushing attempts, the 49ers defense has only allowed 2 touchdowns. The only aspect that remains untested is the pass defense as San Francisco’s opponents have not yet thrown the football inside the 49ers’ 5-yard line. If I had to bet on any Broncos player to find the end zone, it would be Courtland Sutton for me, as opposed to either running back.

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