Just as everyone predicted before the season, this Sunday’s Week 4 game between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears will be a titanic matchup of winning teams vying for NFC supremacy.
Or, actually, nobody predicted that, and even if they did, they’d still be wrong. Despite these teams’ surprising respective 2-1 records, both have been just as pedestrian as was expected. New York got their victories through a last-second missed field goal by the Tennessee Titans, and a low-scoring contest against a bad Carolina Panthers team. Chicago’s came against the San Francisco 49ers in a ludicrous rain storm, and against the similarly terrible Houston Texans is an ugly, mistake-filled game.
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It’s remarkable to think that one of these teams is guaranteed (barring a tie) to be 3-1 after Sunday. The Giants have a -3 point differential, and rank in the bottom half of the league in both yards and points. Compared to the Bears, however, the Giants are a statistical juggernaut. Chicago ranks dead last in yards, first downs, and completed passes. These teams’ offensive issues are similar, as they both have poor pass-protecting offensive lines and no-name receiving corps. New York has the edge in quarterback play and coaching, plus a bonafide star in running back Saquon Barkley, which accounts for their better offensive production.
If Big Blue has any plans of being playoff competitve, this is a win they have to get. After Chicago, their next three opponents are the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and the seemingly good-now Jacksonville Jaguars. The Giants project to be heavy underdogs in each of those games, so they can’t afford to take losses to inferior teams like the Bears.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.
Where and When
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST
Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)
Chicago: TE Ryan Griffin (Questionable), WR Velus Jones (Questionable), RB David Montgomery (Questionable), LB Sterling Weatherford (Questionable), DE Robert Quinn (Questionable), CB Jaylon Johnson (Questionable), LB Roquan Smith (Questionable), CB Dane Cruikshank (Questionable), LB Matthew Adams (Questionable), OT Alex Leatherwood (Out)
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New York: LB Jihad Ward (Questionable), DL Leonard WIlliams (Questionable), WR Kadarius Toney (Questionable), WR Wan’Dale Robinson (Questionable), CB Aaron Robinson (Questionable), CB Justin Layne (Questionable), CB Nick McCloud (Questionable), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Doubtful)
Most Concerning Matchup: LB Roquan Smith vs. RB Saquon Barkley
The Bears have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, so finding a player to be “concerned” about was difficult to say the least. Smith is probably the only true plus player on the team, and he’s coming off a monster game against the Texans. Last week, he racked up 16 total tackles and an interception that set up Chicago’s game-winning field goal.
It just so happens that Smith will be tracking Barkley, New York’s lone star offensive player, for much of Sunday. Smith is a supremely athletic and rangy linebacker, so he could limit Barkley’s effectiveness in the passing game. He’s also speedy enough in pursuit to mitigate Barkley’s patented bounce-outside rushes. Barkley’s still good enough to win against a player of even Smith’s quality, so the concern here isn’t major, but it’s the best we can do.
Most Promising Matchup: OT Andrew Thomas vs. DE Robert Quinn
The first three games of the Giants’ season has changed the national narrative about Thomas from “improving young tackle recovering well from his poor rookie year” to “legitimate top-tier tackle, no questions asked”. New York may not have many foundational players, especially on offense, but Thomas is now certainly one.
Luckily for the Giants, he should be matched up with Quinn, Chicago’s primary pass rusher, for much of Sunday afternoon. The 12-year veteran Quinn is still a dangerous speed rusher. He’s coming off an impressive 18.5-sack campaign. He primarily rushes from the right end, which mean he should battle with Thomas most snaps. Big Blue should feel comfortable with their young left tackle handing the veteran rusher. Look out, however, for the Bears potentially moving Quinn to left end to rush against the struggling Evan Neal.
Keys to Victory
Most NFL offenses strive for a balanced attack, but this season the Bears have pretty much abandoned that idea. Last week against Houston, they rushed for a whopping 281 yards and passed for only 82 yards. With a bad receiving corps, a struggling second-year quarterback in Justin Fields, and a solid running back tandem of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, look for Chicago to stick with their run-heavy approach.
New York will have to stack the box to keep the Bears’ running game in check. Their run defense played poorly last week, giving up 176 rushing yards to the Dallas Cowboys. Defensive lineman Leonard Williams likely won’t be back on Sunday, so stifling Chicago’s ground game could be a challenge.
On offense, the Giants absolutely must pass protect better than they did on Monday night against Dallas. Once that’s done, a playmaker other than Barkley needs to make a difference. Receivers Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Richie James need to step up as reliable options for quarterback Daniel Jones.
Final Prediction: Bears 19 – Giants 17
When fully healthy, the Giants are probably the better team. But with New York likely missing their two most dangerous receivers, and with Williams not available to help plug up the run, the Bears represent an oddly difficult matchup for Big Blue. Neither of these teams are good enough to pull away from the other, so we’ll give the edge to Chicago thanks to their well-established run game.
– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.