Patriots Game Preview: Offense vs. Detroit Lions Defense

The New England Patriots sit at a disappointing 1-3 after four weeks of the 2022 NFL season that is slowly slipping away. This week they don their throwback  “Pat Patriot” red jerseys as they welcome the big play Detroit Lions to Gillette Stadium. 

The throwback uniforms return for the first time in a decade and are based on the ones worn regularly from 1984-1992 and then sporadically from 1994-2012 as an alternate uniform. The Patriots will wear red jerseys with white pants and a white helmet featuring the ‘Pat Patriot’ logo with white facemasks.

The Patriots and quarterback Bailey Zappe welcome a Detroit defense ranked dead-last in most important defensive categories and having allowed 38, 27, 28 and 48 points in their four games so far. However, the talent on defense is starting to shine through. Oft-injured cornerback Jeff Okudah is blossoming into a star in 2022 while the number two overall pick in this year’s draft, Aidan Hutchinson, is leading the Lions with three sacks through four games.

Game Info:

This week’s match-up against an NFC opponent will be back on FOX for the 1:00 p.m. start on Sunday  and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25 in the greater Boston area and on “Fox Providence” WNAC-TV Channel 64 in the greater Providence area. In a treat (it is October) for the viewers, the always-excellent Kenny Albert will handle play-by-play duties with up-and-coming broadcaster Jonathan Vilma as the color analyst. Shannon Spake will provide analysis from the sidelines.

Albert is the only broadcaster currently calling play-by-play for all four major US sports and has called over 450 NFL games in his career. The “son of Marv” has transformed himself into one of the best play-by-play announcers no matter the sport. Vilma was a three-time Pro Bowl linebacker in his NFL career with the Jets and Saints.This is Vilma’s third year on Fox calling games with Albert.

If you’re at work on Sunday, in your car or out working in the yard, 98.5 The Sports Hub remains the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network and will carry the game as usual. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide his own unique brand of sound effects, grunts, singing and other colorful color analysis.

Three hours prior to kickoff, during halftime and after the game, Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper will be serving up all the timely news and notes, while “Big” Jim Murray will join Joe Murray (no relation) for the postgame news, including live sound from the postgame press conferences.

With 10 radio affiliates in Massachusetts, four in Maine, three in Connecticut, eight in New Hampshire, four in Vermont, two in Rhode Island and even one infringing into Buffalo Bills’ territory in Rochester, NY the Patriots radio network truly puts the “New England” in the New England Patriots.

Around Full Press Coverage

NFL OPINION: Morten Andersen: The Toughest Place To Kick? For Me, It Was This Place

NFL: NFL 2022: Five Key Statistics for Week 2

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs Stock Report: Week 2 2022

FULL PRESS BETS: NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Leapfrogs Josh Allen For Top Spot

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Fantasy Football Value Picks In Every Round

PODCAST: Full Press NFL Podcast Ep 54: Chargers At Chiefs Preview

Last Week Recap:

The Patriots’ “interesting” 2022 season continued last week against Green Bay with quarterback number three stepping in as rookie fourth-round draft pick Bailey Zappe stepped in for an injured Brian Hoyer in the first quarter against Green Bay. The veteran back-up Hoyer was making his first start since 2020 due to starter Mac Jones’ high ankle sprain suffered on the last offensive play of the game against Baltimore.

For all the criticism leveled against the Bill Belichick-Matt Patricia-Joe Judge offensive triumvirate so far in 2022, last week’s 27-24 loss in overtime to the Packers was a masterclass in how to effectively run an offense without the starter in place. Both Hoyer (5 of 6 passing for 37 yards before leaving due to injury) and Zappe (10 of 15 passing for 99 yards and a touchdown) were productive and keyed off a strong running game (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted).

While New England lost the game in overtime, it was reminiscent of the 2001 season when the Patriots went toe-to-toe with the ”greatest show on turf” in week ten in prime time and lost 24-17. Yes, the 2022 Packers offense is a far cry from the Rams record-setting squad, but with a better defense and a Hall of Fame quarterback (and in Lambeau Field), the level of difficulty may have been higher. Green Bay should have won this game going away. 

I’m not saying that I expect the Patriots to run the table the rest of the way and win the Super Bowl, this 2022 team lacks the core talent the 2001 team possessed, but the coaching acumen of Bill Belichick was on display. Once again, this was another game that cemented his Hall of Fame qualifications as the greatest NFL coach of all time. 

New England rushed for 167 yards and passed for another 136 yards with just one turnover by Zappe on a monster sack by Green Bay’s Rashan Gary (who showed why he may be the most underrated pass rusher in the NFL. He deserves mention with the Bosa’s and Watt’s as the best in the league.) The offense keyed off great field position set-up by dynamic rookie punt and kick returner Marcus Jones.

Detroit was run over by Seattle to the tune of 555 yards of offense. Seattle running back Rashaad Penny led the way with 151 yards on just 17 carries. Quarterback Geno Smith connected with nine different receivers completing 23 of 30 passes for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding 49 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown as well.

While the Lions were more than competent on offense (378 yards passing for Jared Goff and 108 yards on the ground from Jamaal Williams), the defense left much to be desired. Seattle converted 9 of 12 third downs and other than a missed field goal in the third quarter scored on all seven other drives (not counting the conversion and kneel-downs at the end of the game).

Patriots Offense vs Lions’ Defense:

New England is an entirely different offense with both Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer out at quarterback. New England was able to get the running game going early and often last week and need to replicate that against the Lions. Fortunately for the Patriots, the Lions have already allowed two teams to rush for over 200 yards on the ground and rank last in yards per rush allowed at 5.6 yards per rushing attempt.

This will be important as the Patriots need to give Zappe third-and-short situations to convert with the threat of still running the football in those situations. Fortunately, the Lions have the worst third-down defense in the entire league with conversions allowed in four games (allowing a whopping 52.8%). Heck, they’re not much better on fourth down allowing four of seven attempts to convert (57.1%).

What should be a welcome statistic for a New England offense that has stalled in the Red Zone often this season and is 21st in the league with just six touchdowns on 11 trips inside the 20-yard line, the Lions rank dead last and have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns on a whopping 13 of 15 trips in the Red Zone.

Three Matchups to Watch:

RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson vs LBs Malcolm Rodriguez and Alex Anzelone

A big reason for the porous run defense in Detroit has been the trio of young linebackers learning and growing up while facing quality NFL running backs (the Patriots saw this for themselves last week as AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones abused Mack Wilson, Ja’Whaun Bentley and especially Jahlani Tavai). 

Anzalone is the veteran at age 28 but only became a starter last season in his first season in Detroit after four seasons of mostly special teams contributions in New Orleans. Anzelone in two seasons has shown himself to be…adequate. He’s not particularly outstanding in any role, but is probably the best coverage linebacker and should see plenty of covering Stevenson and Harris out of the backfield.

Rodriguez, aka “Rodrigo” as the coaches referred to him, was the star of HBO’s Hard Knocks program this summer as America (and I) fell in love with the sixth-round draft pick. His great attitude on and off the field, his “hair on fire” brand of play on the field and results between the white lines made him the stand-out star of the program. Other than in pass coverage, the tackling machine has been the best linebacker on Lions.

Harris and Stevenson showed how they can be a solid one-two punch in the running game as they were impressive against a Green Bay defense that was coming off a stand-out performance shutting down Leonard Fournette and the Tampa rushing attack. 

Harris, who had struggled the week before against Baltimore and saw Stevenson take the top back role that game, bounced back with a command performance rushing 18 times for 86 yards. Against the sure-tackling Packers there was little opportunity for big plays, broken tackles and YAC (yards after contact), but Harris should have more opportunity this week against the LIons.

Stevenson added 66 yards on 14 carries but had some tough runs going nowhere in the second half. However, he added four receptions out of the backfield continuing his contributions as a receiving back and outlet. This role is key with a rookie at quarterback this week and Stevenson may need to contribute with a James White level workload in the passing game.

WRs DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor vs CBs Jeff Okudah and Amani Oruwariye 

Here’s the good news for Bailey Zappe this week: Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye ranks 117th out of 117 cornerbacks in the NFL with 50 snaps played with the lowest PFF overall grade (27.7) at the position. He leads the league in both penalties and  missed tackles at the cornerback position. Zappe should be looking for number 24 on defense early and often.

On the other side is the only bright spot for the dismal pass defense in Detroit: Jeff Okudah. Well known to Matt Patricia who drafted Okudah third overall in 2020 (ahead of Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson to name a few), Okudah had been written off as a bust. He played just ten games in his first two seasons (nine games in his rookie season) and struggled mightily when on the field. Both seasons finished with him on injured reserve and he played just one game last season.

This season Okudah has been healthy and comfortable in the defense and his skills that made him such a high draft pick out of Ohio State were on display in the first three weeks as he was a shutdown cornerback. Last week was his first bad week in coverage, but a lot of that was the match-up nightmare that D.K. Metcalf is in the passing game. He just overwhelmed Okudah with his size and speed. New England has no comparable match-up to Metcalf (though they could have drafted Metcalf instead of N’Keal Harry…OK, stop the negative thoughts. Push them away, far away.)

Agholor and Parker did not put up any big receiving numbers but Agholor led the way with  three catches for 46 yards and a 27 yard strike from Brian Hoyer. Parker had only two receptions but one was Zappe’s 25 yard touchdown pass in the third quarter that put New England ahead and gave the team confidence that they could hang in the game (yes, I know about the play clock expiring, still doesn’t make up for the hold on KB on third and five in OT that should have extended the drive and also the horrible horse-collar penalty earlier in the game). 

The Detroit secondary is a mess, and Agholor, Parker and the rest of the New England pass catchers need to take advantage of the group. Safety Tracy Walker was looking great in three games before being injured (torn Achilles) and out for the season in Detroit. Last week they turned in desperation to rookie Kerby Joseph to start and play all 70 snaps at safety after he was primarily a wide receiver at Illinois. Expect the benched Juju Hughes back at safety next to DeShonn Elliott this week. 

Detroit will get last year’s starting cornerback Jerry Jacobs back soon (he started the year on PUP and just started practicing this week after tearing his ACL last year in week 14) and should be back by week six or seven. Veteran cornerback Mike Hughes has been locked in at the slot cornerback position and…well, he isn’t consistently horrible is damning with faint praise, I guess.

The Patriots have a huge opportunity in the passing game this week, despite starting rookie Bailey Zappe for the first time. The veterans Agholor and Parker are going to be key to get points on the board against a struggling Lions secondary. 

Returner Marcus Jones vs Detroit Special Teams units

I was ecstatic on draft day when the Patriots drafted Marcus Jones, the slot cornerback out of Houston (via transfer from Troy) in the third round. A potential starter in the future, Jones is a twitchy and athletic cornerback who some draft analysts thought could transition to wide receiver. His special teams talent stood out with nine return touchdowns in his college career and ability to hit another gear in the open field.

Strangely, the Patriots opted to give Kyle Dugger, Ty Montgomery, Myles Bryant and even fellow rookie Pierre Strong opportunities in the return game in the first three games. The reasoning was logical, with the Patriots already dedicating roster spots to pure special teams players, the coaches wanted a contributor on offense or defense handling the return game.

Finally turning to Jones, he showed off his skills against Green Bay with punt returns of 20 and 29 yards and six kick-off returns for 156 yards (including a 37 yard run back). No doubt, many fans were frantically Googling “Patriots #25” trying to figure out who this special teams standout was during the game. Jones looked like he was shot out of a cannon and gave the Patriots’ offense a shot in the arm by flipping field position for the unit. 

Detroit has a decent Special Teams unit. Last year they were ranked seventh by nationally respected and veteran special teams analyst Rick Gossellin. This season, Football Outsiders ranks Detroit 14th (equal to the Patriots) in their defense-adjusted value over average special teams rankings. 

The Lions have one of the top punters in the NFL (he’s kind of being wasted this season) in Jack Fox. However, that only mitigates two areas they have struggled with which is kickoff and punt return coverage. Last week Detroit was able to mitigate that with only one returnable punt and kick-off returns limited with all touchbacks while in the Ford Field indoor stadium. That is not always possible with the swirling winds of Gillette Stadium on Sunday (winds of 10-15 mph forecast Sunday with gusts up to 20 mph).

Jones has a chance to help out fellow rookie Bailey Zappe with some great field position on Sunday as he did last week. A return touchdown could be just the formula for success (like fellow rookie Jack Jones’ pick-six last week helping out the offense) this week against the Lions.

Patriots Score Prediction: 

New England 24 – Detroit 17

A mea culpa, first. I severely underestimated what Bill Belichick could do without his starting quarterback. Somehow I discounted the 2001, 2008 and  2016 seasons and focused only on the Covid-19 2020 week four loss to the Kansas City Chiefs which saw Brian Hoyer benched for Jarrett Stidham. Somehow, I forgot that the game was 13-10 in the fourth quarter despite the Super Bowl bound Chiefs facing a Cam Newton-less Patriots offense missing multiple starters on both sides of the ball (John Simon started on defense and Damiere Byrd and N’Keal Harry were the starting wide receivers!).

I expect growing pains for Bailey Zappe, but this is the perfect defense for a rookie to face making his first start. I am putting a lot of faith in the defense slowing the Lions’ explosive offense. Injuries to some key contributors for the Lions should help out, but New England needs a classic Bill Belichick “all three phases of the game” performance this week.

I am putting my faith in Belichick that they pull it off at home this week against a fellow 1-3 team.  

– Hal Bent has covered the New England Patriots for the past five years at FullPressCoverage.com and can be found at @Halbent01 on Twitter and manning the @FPC_Patriots account each game day providing game updates, instant analysis, complaining about uncalled holding penalties and calling out Steve Belichick for playing too much zone coverage in crucial situations.