#2 New York Yankees vs #3 Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland won the weak AL Central Division by 11 games with a 92-70 record but were the only of the four home teams to win the wildcard series, eliminating Tampa Bay with a 1-0 victory on Oscar Gonzalez’s 15th-inning homer. New York still finished with the second-best record in the American League (99-63) after struggling after the All-Star break but is dealing with injuries to their bullpen.
Pitching
Cleveland got length from ace Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie in their sweep of Tampa, with both going 6+ innings, and their bullpen led by closer Emmanuel Clase held the Rays in check for nine innings in the closeout of the series.
The Yankees getting the bye gave them the advantage of rest and being able to set up their rotation. Manager Aaron Boone announced on Monday that Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 on Tuesday, with Nestor Cortes going in Game 2 and Luis Severino in Game 3. New York’s bullpen situation is tenuous, with Aroldis Chapman not reporting for mandatory workouts and being left off the playoff roster, and both Wandy Peralta and Clay Holmes coming off the IL.
Advantage – Even
Hitting
Cleveland generated just three runs against an excellent Tampa pitching staff but got a homer in Game 1 from third baseman Jose Ramirez and Game 2 hero Gonzalez. Steven Kwan will have to get on base after going hitless in nine at-bats in the wild card, and the Guardians will have to get more production from first baseman Josh Naylor, and infielders Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario to have a chance in the series.
New York’s offense is more than just Aaron Judge and his record-breaking 62-homer season. If Cleveland tries to pitch around the slugger, then Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton will have to make them pay. DJ Lemahieu returned to the Yankees lineup in their last series after missing all of September with a toe injury, and Matt Carpenter is being added to the playoff roster to provide a left-handed bat off the bench.
Advantage – Yankees
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#1 Houston Astros vs. #5 Seattle Mariners
After going 90-72, and making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, the Mariners stunned Toronto in the series sweep, getting a stellar start from Luis Castillo in a 4-0 shutout in Game 1 and rallying from an 8-1 deficit to win 10-9 over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
Pitching
Seattle made the best deadline addition in Castillo, who went 4-2 and struck out 77 in 65 innings, but he will get an extra day of rest before likely starting Game 2 on Thursday. Logan Gilbert will open the series for the Mariners, and after 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray gave up four runs in three innings against his former club, it is likely that he will have until Saturday to make his next start.
Houston has a solid rotation, with ace and Cy Young nominee Justin Verlander getting the start in Game 1, and Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Lance McCullers Jr., and appears to have a bullpen advantage, with closer Ryan Pressley saving 33 games and middlemen Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu having ERA’s under 2.00.
Advantage – Houston
Hitting
Seattle got production from catcher Cal Raleigh (4 for 8, 1 HR), second baseman Adam Frazier (4 for 9), and third baseman Eugenio Suarez (4 for 9, two 2B’s), but will need likely AL Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriquez and JP Crawford to hit to have a chance against the Astros. In spite of the departure of George Springer and Carlos Correa, Houston continues to be an offensive force, with Yordan Alvarez hitting 37 homers, Kyle Tucker slugging 30, and second baseman Jose Altuve hitting .300.