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Home Fantasy Sports Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 6

Kyle Senra by Kyle Senra
October 14, 2022
in Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports
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Touchdown production is a big component of fantasy football success. Goal-Line Guide Week 6 attempts to predict touchdowns for the upcoming matchups.

The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.

The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.

Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense paired with their opponent’s defense for that week.

Finally, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the odds makers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often. and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.

Goal-Line Guide Week 6

Team Rushing GLG Passing GLG
Arizona Cardinals 65.75 37.25
Atlanta Falcons 71.5 48
Baltimore Ravens 46.25 93.25
Buffalo Bills 58 75
Carolina Panthers 77.5 27.5
Chicago Bears 54.5 34
Cincinnati Bengals 68.5 39
Cleveland Browns 43.75 56.25
Dallas Cowboys 52 87.5
Denver Broncos 51 36.5
Green Bay Packers 76.5 67
Indianapolis Colts 64.5 45
Jacksonville Jaguars 28.5 67
Kansas City Chiefs 70.5 85.5
Los Angeles Chargers 38 58.5
Los Angeles Rams 46 76
Miami Dolphins 81.75 81.25
Minnesota Vikings 74.25 54.25
New England Patriots 92.75 32.25
New Orleans Saints 67 83.5
New York Giants 73.25 50.75
New York Jets 86.5 89.5
Philadelphia Eagles 50 64
Pittsburgh Steelers 79.25 54.25
San Francisco 49ers 58 66.5
Seattle Seahawks 39.25 93.25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.75 75.25
Washington Commanders 49.5 63.5

Now that you have all of the Goal-Line Grades in front of you, I want to take the time to point out certain teams. These are the biggest takeaways from Goal-Line Guide Week 6.

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Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 46.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 93.25

Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 39.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 93.25

The Ravens and the Seahawks are tied for the overall Goal-Line Grade lead. Both of their passing offenses are at 93.25 in terms of Goal-Line Grades for Week 6. Also, both offenses have below average rushing scores (Week 6 average for Rushing Goal-Line Grades is 61.6). Therefore, I think if either team is able to find the end zone, it will come from the quarterbacks throwing. Of course, Lamar Jackson is going to be in starting lineups, but I also consider Geno Smith to be a strong starter this week. In my personal rankings, I have Smith listed as the QB #8 for Week 6.

Trusting both quarterbacks also means having faith in their respective receiving corps. For Seattle I have both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf as top 20 wide receivers. Both should be in starting lineups this week. On the Baltimore side, Mark Andrews is a locked-in top two tight end as long as he is healthy. No one should ever consider benching him. But I would also add that Devin Duvernay should be a strong start this week. Given the number of targets he has received over recent weeks, it is reasonable to view Duvernay as a top 24 wide receiver on the week.

 

New York Jets

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 86.5

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 89.5

The Jets are the only team with both Rushing and Passing Goal-Line Grades above 85. They represent both the 4th and 6th highest overall grades this week. All to say, play your Jets with much more confidence this week. Breece Hall has entered the must-start territory after taking over the role of passing-down back. The consistent receiving week elevates his floor. And for this week, an 86.5 Rushing Goal-Line Grade gives Hall true top 5 upside at the position.

Now for the Jets wide receivers. The entire pass-catching group has not been nearly as consistent as Hall. However, this could be a good week to start any of the team’s top three wide receivers. In particular, Garrett Wilson‘s ability to draw targets so far in his young career makes me inclined to have him ranked the highest. I am less excited about the tight ends on this team, but I do think that Zach Wilson has top 10 upside among quarterback. In fact, I have him ranked at QB #9 for Week 6, one spot behind the aforementioned Geno Smith.

 

New England Patriots

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 92.75

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 32.25

For the second week in a row, the Patriots’ running game is featured in the Goal-Line Guide. And much like in Week 5, the New England passing offense has a below average Goal-Line Grade. In fact, at 32.25, the Patriots Passing Goal-Line Grade is the second lowest on the NFL this week. Coming both rushing and passing scores, it is the third worst overall.

Basically, this means fantasy football managers (and New England themselves) should rely on Rhamondre Stevenson. I consider him a top 12 RB on the week. I doubt there are many fantasy teams that could afford to bench Stevenson in this matchup against the Browns.

 

Low Lines of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 28.5

While James Robinson had a terrific start to the season, this is a week where I would consider benching him. With a Goal-Line Grade of 28.5 the Jaguars has the lowest rushing score of the week, and second worst overall. The truth is, the Jaguars have yet to score a touchdown on the ground inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Further impacting this low grade is the Colts defense which has only allowed 1 rushing touchdown near the goal-line.

Carolina Panthers

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 27.5

Another repeat rankings, and not for a good reason. The Panthers have the horrible distinction of the lowest overall Goal-Line Grade during consecutive weeks. Once again, this score is specifically for their passing offense. Carolina’s Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 77.5 is above the league average. So I still have full confidence in Christian McCaffrey. I would just avoid any other Panthers player if possible.

 

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 6. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

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This Week On FPC Radio LIVEMore Shows

  • 9/22 - 49ers Move To 3-0, Week 2 Picks and Predictions
    by Full Press Coverage on September 22, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    Ian and John discuss the 49ers win over the Giants on Thursday Night […]

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  • 9/21 - Thursday Night Football Preview; NFL MVP Talk
    by Full Press Coverage on September 21, 2023 at 2:15 pm

    Ian and John preview Thursday Night Football between the Giants and 49ers […]

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  • 9/19 - Monday Night Recap, State of Quarterback Play, 2-0 Teams
    by Full Press Coverage on September 19, 2023 at 2:08 pm

    Ian and John discuss MNF and talk about the state of quarterback play. […]

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  • 9/18 - Week 2 Headlines; Monday Night Football Predictions
    by Full Press Coverage on September 18, 2023 at 2:05 pm

    Ian and John discuss some of the headlines from Sunday's action, some […]

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  • Grand Slam Gives AEW Dynamite Highest Viewership Since February 2023
    by Jim Biringer on September 21, 2023 at 8:40 pm

    It is Thursday and you know what that means and the ratings for AEW Dynamite are out. It was AEW […]

  • WWE News: WWE Smackdown Heading Back To USA Network
    by Jim Biringer on September 21, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    TKO Group Holdings announced Thursday morning a new five-year agreement with NBCUniversal that will […]

  • WWE Smackdown Draws Big Viewership Thanks To The Rock
    by Jim Biringer on September 19, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    Welcome back to another edition of the weekend wrestling ratings with WWE Smackdown and AEW […]

  • Crossbody of Work Episode 182 – Michelle McCool
    by Evan Gomes on September 16, 2023 at 2:25 pm

    Welcome to Crossbody of Work, a show where we break down a wrestler’s career through five of […]

  • The Rock and Pat McAfee Appear on Smackdown
    by Jim Biringer on September 16, 2023 at 2:46 am

    The September 15th edition of WWE Smackdown saw Pat McAfee and The Rock appear to begin the show to […]

More Wrestling News

  • Steelers at Raiders - Eagles at Bucs - Rams at Bengals
    by Broken Controller Media on September 22, 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Hunter Logan Previews these Matchups on The Pro Football Stack The […]

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  • Phoenix Suns Preview
    by Broken Controller Media on September 22, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Previewing the Phoenix Suns with their over/under win totals for the […]

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  • CFB Daily: SEC, Pac-12, Week 4 Games
    by Full Press Coverage on September 22, 2023 at 3:16 am

    Jim Biringer is joined by Justin Gonzalez to breakdown the latest in the […]

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  • Cowboys at Cardinals - Bears at Chiefs
    by Broken Controller Media on September 21, 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Hunter Logan Previews these Matchups on The Pro Football Stack The […]

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  • Patriots at Jets - Bills at Commanders - Panthers at Seahawks
    by Broken Controller Media on September 21, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Hunter Logan Previews these Matchups on The Pro Football Stack The […]

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  • Week 4: Oregon State-Washington State & Texas-Baylor
    by Broken Controller Media on September 21, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Betting preview for Week 4 college football matchups: Oregon State Beavers […]

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  • Philadelphia 76ers Preview
    by Broken Controller Media on September 21, 2023 at 2:00 pm

    Previewing the Philadelphia 76ers with their over/under win totals for the […]

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  • Week 4: Ohio State-Notre Dame & UCLA @ Utah
    by Broken Controller Media on September 21, 2023 at 11:00 am

    Betting preview for Week 4 college football matchups: Ohio State Buckeyes […]

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  • Episode 160: Patriots-Dolphins Week Two Recap, Patriots-Jets Week Three Preview, NFL Week Two Recap, Week Three Predictions, Bruins Name Brad Marchand Captain, Other NHL News, And Red Sox Fire Chaim Bloom
    by Mike Cratty on September 21, 2023 at 7:00 am

    Episode 160 includes our Patriots-Dolphins week two recap, Patriots-Jets […]

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  • Ep. 278: Clayton State University Head Men's Basketball Coach Vince Alexander
    by Full Press Coverage on September 21, 2023 at 5:00 am

    Biggs sits down withClayton State University Head Men's Basketball Coach […]

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  • Ep 134: NFL Week 2 Studs And Duds
    by Full Press Coverage on September 20, 2023 at 7:07 pm

    Ian and Braden give their Studs and Duds for the second week of NFL […]

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