Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 6

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Touchdown production is a big component of fantasy football success. Goal-Line Guide Week 6 attempts to predict touchdowns for the upcoming matchups.

The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.

The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.

Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense paired with their opponent’s defense for that week.

Finally, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the odds makers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often. and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.

Goal-Line Guide Week 6

Now that you have all of the Goal-Line Grades in front of you, I want to take the time to point out certain teams. These are the biggest takeaways from Goal-Line Guide Week 6.

Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 46.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 93.25

Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 39.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 93.25

The Ravens and the Seahawks are tied for the overall Goal-Line Grade lead. Both of their passing offenses are at 93.25 in terms of Goal-Line Grades for Week 6. Also, both offenses have below average rushing scores (Week 6 average for Rushing Goal-Line Grades is 61.6). Therefore, I think if either team is able to find the end zone, it will come from the quarterbacks throwing. Of course, Lamar Jackson is going to be in starting lineups, but I also consider Geno Smith to be a strong starter this week. In my personal rankings, I have Smith listed as the QB #8 for Week 6.

Trusting both quarterbacks also means having faith in their respective receiving corps. For Seattle I have both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf as top 20 wide receivers. Both should be in starting lineups this week. On the Baltimore side, Mark Andrews is a locked-in top two tight end as long as he is healthy. No one should ever consider benching him. But I would also add that Devin Duvernay should be a strong start this week. Given the number of targets he has received over recent weeks, it is reasonable to view Duvernay as a top 24 wide receiver on the week.

New York Jets

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 86.5

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 89.5

The Jets are the only team with both Rushing and Passing Goal-Line Grades above 85. They represent both the 4th and 6th highest overall grades this week. All to say, play your Jets with much more confidence this week. Breece Hall has entered the must-start territory after taking over the role of passing-down back. The consistent receiving week elevates his floor. And for this week, an 86.5 Rushing Goal-Line Grade gives Hall true top 5 upside at the position.

Now for the Jets wide receivers. The entire pass-catching group has not been nearly as consistent as Hall. However, this could be a good week to start any of the team’s top three wide receivers. In particular, Garrett Wilson‘s ability to draw targets so far in his young career makes me inclined to have him ranked the highest. I am less excited about the tight ends on this team, but I do think that Zach Wilson has top 10 upside among quarterback. In fact, I have him ranked at QB #9 for Week 6, one spot behind the aforementioned Geno Smith.

New England Patriots

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 92.75

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 32.25

For the second week in a row, the Patriots’ running game is featured in the Goal-Line Guide. And much like in Week 5, the New England passing offense has a below average Goal-Line Grade. In fact, at 32.25, the Patriots Passing Goal-Line Grade is the second lowest on the NFL this week. Coming both rushing and passing scores, it is the third worst overall.

Basically, this means fantasy football managers (and New England themselves) should rely on Rhamondre Stevenson. I consider him a top 12 RB on the week. I doubt there are many fantasy teams that could afford to bench Stevenson in this matchup against the Browns.

Low Lines of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 28.5

While James Robinson had a terrific start to the season, this is a week where I would consider benching him. With a Goal-Line Grade of 28.5 the Jaguars has the lowest rushing score of the week, and second worst overall. The truth is, the Jaguars have yet to score a touchdown on the ground inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Further impacting this low grade is the Colts defense which has only allowed 1 rushing touchdown near the goal-line.

Carolina Panthers

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 27.5

Another repeat rankings, and not for a good reason. The Panthers have the horrible distinction of the lowest overall Goal-Line Grade during consecutive weeks. Once again, this score is specifically for their passing offense. Carolina’s Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 77.5 is above the league average. So I still have full confidence in Christian McCaffrey. I would just avoid any other Panthers player if possible.

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