New England Patriots Game Preview: Defense vs. Cleveland Browns’ Offense

The New England Patriots played their most complete game of the 2022 NFL season last week shutting out the Detroit Lions and their number-one-ranked scoring offense at Gillette Stadium 29-0. This week they head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH to face off against a star-studded Cleveland Browns rushing offense. 

New England catches a break this season playing the Browns early in the season with star quarterback Deshaun Watson suspended and former Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett at the helm. Regardless of the quarterback, running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the key cogs of an offense that has run over their opponents each week so far in 2022.

Game Info:

This week’s AFC match-up will be broadcast on CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and on WPRI-TV Channel 12 in the greater Providence area. The 1:00 pm game will feature the best announcer on television with the great Kevin Harlan handling play-by-play duties, The always competent Trent Green will serve as the color analyst. Melanie Collins will provide analysis from the sidelines. 

Locally, 98.5 The Sports Hub remains the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network and will carry the game as usual.Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide his own unique brand of sound effects, grunts, singing and other colorful color analysis.

Three hours prior to kickoff, during halftime and after the game, Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and Boston Globe scribe Chris Gasper will be providing the relevant news and information, while “Big” Jim Murray will join Joe Murray for the postgame news.

With 10 radio affiliates in Massachusetts, four in Maine, three in Connecticut, eight in New Hampshire, four in Vermont, two in Rhode Island and even one infringing into Buffalo Bills’ territory in Rochester, NY the Patriots radio network truly puts the “New England” in the New England Patriots.

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Last Week Recap:

The Patriots’ defense woke up last week after allowing 394 total yards in a loss to Baltimore in week three and 443 total yards (mostly in the second half and overtime) against Green Bay the next week(all statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted). The Lions’ number one scoring offense was 0-for-6 on fourth down and scored zero points. 

Rookie fourth-round draft pick Jack Jones had another interception with a magnificent toe-tapping on the sideline to pick off Jared Goff. After Jones’ pick-six against Green Bay in week four, the defense put points on the board again with Kyle Dugger scooping up a fumble by Goff and taking it to the end zone after Goff was strip-sacked by Matthew Judon.

The defense was everywhere for all four quarters harassing the Lions and dominating their strong offensive line. Judon had two sacks and the forced fumble and Dugger shut down tight end T.J. Hockenson in coverage and held him to just one reception for six yards on four targets just one week after Hockenson had eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns versus Seattle.

Last week the Browns lost their second game in a row after a 2-1 start. At home against the Los Angeles Chargers they lost 30-28 despite the best efforts of Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley to hand them the victory.

Despite allowing the Chargers moribund rushing attack to pile up 238 yards on the ground, the game came down to the final minutes of the fourth quarter. After Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw an interception in the end zone with under three minutes to play, the much-maligned Browns defense stepped up and made a huge stop on third-and-three right after the two minute warning.

Instead of punting on fourth-and-two from their own 45 yard line to pin the Browns deep and make them drive the entire field with no timeouts, Staley had his team go for it and the Chargers could not convert. The Browns defense shook off a rough game allowing 465 yards of total offense to give the offense a chance to win the game.

Alas, the Cleveland offense could only move the ball ten yards and kicker Cade York had a chance to kick a game-winning 53-yard field goal but missed it by pushing it wide right. It was another underwhelming performance by the Browns after losing the week prior to the Atlanta Falcons. 

Patriots Defense vs Browns’ Offense:

New England entered last week’s game having allowed both fourth down conversions. Last week they stoned Detroit with an astonishing six stops on six fourth down attempts. Though those don’t count as turnovers, they had the same effect as the defense has survived by forcing 12 turnovers though five games 

New England is coming off their best performance of the season versus the Lions but face a different beast in the Cleveland Browns. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are a one-two punch like no other in today’s NFL. Last season, in their 45-7 win over the Browns, the Patriots lucked out as Cleveland was without both Chubb and Hunt and only had to contain third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson.

Chubb is his usual dominant self with 593 yards rushing, seven touchdowns and a 6.1 yards per attempt average through five games. Hunt is no slouch either coming off the bench to be the hammer and give Chubb a breather. So far in 2022, Hunt has 247 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns and a 4.3 yards per attempt average.

The Browns are first in total rushing yards, second in the league with ten touchdowns on the ground and fifth in yards per attempt. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been good, but not great leading the passing attack. Through five games he has averaged 212 yards passing per game with five touchdowns and three interceptions for a respectable but not great 85.4 quarterback rating.

Three Matchups to Watch:

CBs Jack Jones, Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant vs WRs Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell

The New England Patriots secondary has lost a pair of All-Pro cornerbacks in the past two seasons and is still going strong. With Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson leaving for greener (aka more money than the Patriots were willing to pay) pastures, the Patriots had many doubters both locally and nationally about how the secondary would play in 2022. If you’re into advanced defensive stats, the Patriots’ pass defense has allowed the sixth-lowest success rate and ninth-lowest EPA per dropback (per FantasyPros)..

The Patriots surprisingly moved stud slot cornerback Jonathan Jones to the outside after six seasons pairing him with last year’s free agent pick-up Jalen Mills. Mills had some injury issues this season leading to a larger role for fourth round draft pick Jack Jones. Myles Bryant is the slot cornerback for now, but feisty rookie cornerback Marcus Jones may be filling that role soon.

Jack Jones has been a revelation, with interceptions in the past two weeks showing off his smarts, athleticism and ball-hawking skills. Jones dropped on draft boards due to his size and off-field concerns including being dismissed from USC, charged with breaking into a Panda Express (what teenage male hasn’t been tempted as such!) and then fighting in practice at Arizona State. 

Jones will have a larger role this week with Jonathan Jones ruled out due to injury. Jonathan Jones, though undersized, switched to playing on the boundary in 2022 and has been excellent for the Patriots. He has allowed just 12 receptions on 21 targets for just 199 yards and one touchdown through five games. Feisty and quick, Jonathan Jones excels in man-coverage and so far has been able to mitigate his size concerns. 

With Jonathan Jones out, Jack Jones is expected to match up with four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper is the clear-cut number one receiver in Cleveland and it’s not even close. With three touchdowns he’s the only wide receiver who has reached the end zone for the Browns. Traded away by Dallas due to his salary, Cooper is still a top receiver and is Jacoby Brissett’s go-to guy on third down or when he is in trouble.

The much-maligned duo of Mills and Bryant are often targeted in the media, but both have held up well in 2022. Bryant had some visible struggles with veteran Randall Cobb against Green Bay in week four but otherwise has been a sure tackler and limited YAC (yards after catch). Bryant will match up with rookie David Bell in the slot. 

Bell started the year on the PUP list for Cleveland and has had a slow ramp-up after dealing with a foot injury. Bell has just five catches for 53 yards this season and had just one catch for six yards last week against the Chargers despite playing 29 snaps on offense. The step down from Jarvis Landry to Bell has been a big part of Cleveland struggling in the passing game.

Mills struggled in week two against Pittsburgh’s Dionte Johsnon getting targeted repeatedly in coverage. However, he limited big plays in that game and had his only interception. Back from injury last week, he was not targeted often. PFF has consistently graded Mills low in coverage and not give more ammunition to the sports talk radio folks, but he is currently rated 102 of 102 in coverage.

Mills should match up with Donovan Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones has blazing speed and great length. In theory, he should be a match-up nightmare for the smaller defensive backs in New England. Instead, he has been getting manhandled at the line of scrimmage and pressed by corners and taken out of the offense. 

New England should have the advantage in the passing game this week against Cleveland. With the Cleveland ground game so strong, the New England cornerbacks may not have a lot of help with extra defenders in the box, so any mistake could lead to a big play. Mills, Bryant, and the Jones Gang (anyone get the English rock band reference? Kenney Jones, formerly of the Small Faces? Hello? Anyone?) have to be up to the challenge.

SS Kyle Dugger vs TE David Njoku 

Outside of Amari Cooper, the Browns lean heavily on David Njoku. With 24 receptions for 289 yards through five games, he is on target for career highs in all receiving categories. Seemingly never reaching his potential, a big contract and some growing up have Njoku ascending to become one of the top tight ends in the NFL in 2022.

With the Cleveland wide receivers outside of Cooper being invisible much of the 2022 season, Njoku has had to take on a larger role in the offense. He has responded with 89, 73, and 88 yards in each of the last three games, with each game including a few big plays (longs of 19, then 25, and then a 38 yard reception last week).

When Kyle Dugger exited in week two against the Steelers with a knee injury, the savvy Patriots fans were holding their breath. Dugger is on track to become a perennial Pro Bowl selection with his strong play at strong safety. The former second-round draft pick is a run-stuffer, capable of dropping back to cover deep when Devin McCourty covers a slot receiver or tight end, and Dugger in man-coverage of tight ends is ascending to a level unmatched by any other safety or linebacker in the NFL.

Last week, fully healthy at last, Dugger helped hold T.J. Hockenson to one reception for six yards (that one catch came with Adrian Philips in coverage. Hockenson had no catches on three targets against Dugger). Hockenson was coming off a career-best week of eight catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns before being shut down by Dugger.

Dugger remains overlooked by much of the NFL media who are unaware of his top-level play and every major NFL outlet has Njoku as a must-play in fantasy, totally discounting and disrespecting a healthy Dugger. Look for Dugger to take that personally and make life difficult for the Cleveland tight end.

LBs Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai vs RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt

The Cleveland offense runs through Nick Chubb. Last season, the Patriots missed Chubb and Hunt both and won with ease 45-7 scoring 45 unanswered points. In 2019, Chubb went off for 131 yards but had a fumble early in the first quarter that was returned for a touchdown and put Cleveland in an early hole. 

After falling behind 17-0, Cleveland never really threatened and New England won easily with most of the Chubb yards were empty gains in the second half of the game with the Patriots’ defense backing off and trying to prevent any quick scores. 

With the deficiencies in the Cleveland passing game in 2022, the Browns have been playing more two-and-three tight end sets with blocking tight ends Harrison Bryant and Pharaoh Brown on the field at the same time. These big sets allow for extra blockers up front and Cleveland has been able to overpower smaller defenses.

New England is one of the few defenses with the size and strength to hold up against the Cleveland running offense. It all starts up front for the Browns and their strong offensive line. Tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin and both strong run blocking and in pass protection. On the interior, there is a core of solid veterans. At guard Joel Bitonio remains one of the best and Wyatt Teller remains solid. Center Ethan Pocic doesn’t come up in conversation among the best at the position but he has been better than expected replacing Nick Harris.

The Patriots may have to ring out the heavier fronts this week to combat the Browns rushing attack. That means that bigger linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jehlani Tavai will have a key role in trying to stop Chubb and Hunt.

In reality, it is all eleven players on defense. Chubb will get his yards, he is near impossible to stop. New England has to tackle well and prevent Chubb and Hunt from breaking big runs. Making the Browns put together long, double-digit play drives to matriculate the ball down the field without making mistakes and having to convert multiple third downs.

Slowing the Cleveland running game is possible. That is what New England has to do on Sunday.

Patriots Score Prediction:

New England 20 – Cleveland 17

The New England defense played their best game of the season last week against Detroit. Expecting another shutout is asking too much of this unit. The Patriots will need to hold down the Cleveland rushing offense and bend but not break and attempt keep them under 20 points. 

New England needs to focus on David Njoku, Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb on Sunday. Cleveland does not do a lot of variety on offense, but what they do, they do very well. New England has a tough test, but they should be able to pass the test on Sunday in Cleveland.

– Hal Bent has covered the New England Patriots for the past five years at FullPressCoverage.com and can be found at @Halbent01 on Twitter and manning the @FPC_Patriots account each game day providing game updates, instant analysis, complaining about uncalled holding penalties and calling out Steve Belichick for playing too much zone coverage in crucial situations.