ALCS Preview: Astros, Yankees Battle For Spot In World Series

#1 Houston Astros vs. #2 New York Yankees

The meeting between the Astros and Yankees in the ALCS was thought to be a foregone conclusion in spite of the Yankees post-All-Star break swoon that allowed Houston to finish with a league-best 106-56 record atop the West and home-field advantage in the best-of-seven series, which was a determining factor in the two previous ALCS matchups in 2017 and 2019.

Pitching

Houston has a solid starting staff and can get their rotation aligned after resting for three days after a sweep of Seattle in the divisional round. Ace and Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander gets the start in Game 1, but not pitching in eight days could be a factor after he showed some rust after a long layoff in his start against the Mariners (6 ERs, 10 hits in 4 IP) on October 11. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are excellent. The Yankees got their money’s worth out of Gerrit Cole in the Cleveland series, as the ace won Game 1 and prevented an upset with a seven-inning performance in Game 4, but that likely means he will not start until Game 3 against his former club. New York got fine performances out of starters Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino but will have to go with Jameson Taillon in Game 1.

The Astros got shutdown performances out of their bullpen against Seattle, especially in Game 3’s 18-inning epic, where seven relievers combined for 12 shutout innings. Closer Ryan Pressly saved 33 games and middlemen Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu had ERAs under 2.00 in heavy usage during the regular season. New York’s bullpen situation is not ideal, with Aroldis Chapman not likely to be added to the playoff roster, and manager Aaron Boone shortening his group after Clarke Schmidt blew a two-run lead in Game 3. Wandy Peralta was used in every game of the five-game victory over the Guardians, and Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes were used four times, including Game 5 on Tuesday.  The Yankees have added Greg Weissert and Frankie Montas to the postseason roster.

Advantage – Astros

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Hitting

Houston’s offense has plenty of postseason experience and is still potent in spite of the departure of George Springer and Carlos Correa. Yordan Alvarez hit 37 homers during the regular season and had the most impactful blast of the playoffs with a game-winning homer in the ninth inning of Game 1 vs. Seattle. Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve make up a solid lineup, but Altuve went hitless in 16 at-bats against the Mariners.

Aaron Judge struggled early in the series against Cleveland but appeared to find his stroke later in the series, going 2-for-4 with a home run in the deciding game. Giancarlo Stanton hit a pair of long balls, including a three-run HR in Game 5 to give New York an early advantage, and new addition Harrison Bader had three homers in the series. Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres were effective at the top of the order, but the season-ending knee injury to Aaron Hicks in Game 5 will force Boone to move Stanton from DH to LF and insert veteran Matt Carpenter into the lineup.  Shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa was benched in Game 4 in favor of rookie Oswaldo Cabrera, and with the Hicks injury, rookie Oswald Peraza has been added.

Slight Advantage – Yankees