Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 7

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The Goal-Line Guide Week 7 can be your lucky #7 way of predicting touchdown production for fantasy football.

The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.

The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.

Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.

Finally, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often. and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.

Goal-Line Guide Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 59.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 103.25

In Week 7, Kansas City gets the distinction of the best overall Goal-Line Grade for their arial attack. Of course, there are a few factors that influence the high score. For starters, the Chiefs have the best implied total of any road team at 25.5 projected points scored. Next, looking at the Kansas City offense, they have produced 11 touchdowns on pass attempts inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. Compare that to only 4 scores on goal-line carries, and you get a team that is much more efficient at throwing the football inside the 5-yard line than running it. Finally, the 49ers defense itself has allowed a higher touchdown rate on goal-line passes they have defended, as compared to their surrender rate on rushes. The result of this all is the first Goal-Line Grade of this season over 100.

In terms of specific players, there are a couple of obvious must-start candidates. But as my #1 ranked QB and TE on the week, both Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce could also have strong DFS consideration this week. Following his breakout game with the Chiefs, JuJu Smith-Schuster is also likely to be in most season-long lineups. The real question is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. As a running back, he will be negatively impacted by Kansas City’s below average Rushing Goal-Line Grade. However, because Edwards-Helaire is involved in the passing game, he could still potentially take advantage of this matchup as a receiver. I would consider starting him in every league where he is rostered.

Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 88.5

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 99

Dak is back! And the return of Dak Prescott coincides with a great matchup against Detroit. The oddsmakers certainly agree as the Cowboys have the 2nd highest implied total (27.75) of the entire week. That feeds into the team’s Goal-Line Grades. Arguably the biggest impact is felt in the passing score as Dallas has the 2nd best grade of Week 7. This not only gives me confidence starting Prescott off of the injury absence, but also his three main receivers. Certainly, CeeDee Lamb will be in most fantasy lineups, but I would also start Noah Brown and Michael Gallup as well.

In addition to the passing game prowess of this matchup, the Cowboys also have an excellent Rushing Goal-Line Grade. At 88.5 that gives Dallas both the 2nd and 6th highest scores in Goal-Line Guide Week 7. Therefore, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are both interesting plays. This week, there is only one team with a better Rushing Goal-Line Grade than the Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 98.5

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 35

The team with the best Rushing Goal-Line Grade this week is Carolina. That makes three weeks in a row that the Panthers are featured in this article series. Only this time it is for a good reason. With a score of 98.5, the Panthers not only top the rushing list for goal-line grade, but is also the 3rd best overall on the week. Considering that they are playing the Buccaneers, this may seem surprising. However, Tampa Bay’s rushing defense has not been as efficient as it had been in past seasons. They have actually allowed touchdowns on 67% of rushing attempts against them inside their own 5-yard line. Add that to the fact the Panthers have scored all of their goal-line touchdowns on the ground, and you get a great rushing grade.

This Goal-Line Grade of 98.5 gives me confidence in whoever is Carolina’s starting running back. However, I do not want to play any other player on the team because of their grade through the air. As I have mentioned in recent weeks, the Panthers Passing Goal-Line Grade has been awful. With scores of 16 and 27.5 respectively, Carolina had the dubious distinction of the lowest overall grade in both weeks 5 and 6. While a grade of 35 is an improvement, that is still the 2nd lowest passing score of the week.

Low Lines of the Week

Arizona Cardinals

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 32.25

The team with the worst Passing Goal-Line Grade in Week 7 is Arizona. This is heavily influenced by two factors. First, the Cardinals own offense which has only produced touchdowns on 18% of their passing plays inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Next, the Saints defense which has yet to surrender a score through the air inside their own goal-line, one of only two teams with that distinction this far into the season.

Chicago Bears

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 28.5

The dubious distinction of lowest overall Goal-Line Grade belongs to the Bears in Week 7. At 28.5, Chicago tied the Jaguars rushing grade from last week as the lowest running score so far this season. This mean bad news bears for the Bears, as their ground game has been arguably the best part of their offense. The major factor for this poor grade is mostly due to the Patriots defense. That unit has yet to allow a rushing touchdown from inside their own 5-yard line. New England is one of only two teams that can say that, this far into the season.

As a result of this, I would look to bench most Chicago players this week. Their passing Goal-Line Grade of 41, while better than the rushing score, is still well below the Wee7 average of 64.1. Therefore, I expect mostly a bad offensive performance from the entire Bears roster. especially in the run-game, I am very concerned. A potential 50/50 in the backfield, couple with the low line of the week, makes Chicago an easy avoid offense.

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