Giants at Jaguars: Preview and Prediction

New York Giants fans might feel like legendary comedian Rodney Dangerfield these days; they’re getting no respect, no respect at all. Despite sporting a mighty impressive 5-1 record, Big Blue still enters their Week 7 matchup in Jacksonville against the 2-4 Jaguars as betting underdogs. The Giants are learning that a bad reputation is hard to shake, even after toppling MVP-winning quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson in consecutive weeks.

After all, sceptics of New York’s hot start do have some evidence on their side. Through six weeks, the Giants rank 25th in total offense and 15th in total defense, with a relatively slim +14 point differential. Those are hardly statistics that corroborate an elite or even good team. On the other hand, it’s not as if the Giants have benefited from wildly unsustainable strokes of fortune. They snagged their first interception just last week, and are currently sitting at an unremarkable +2 turnover differential. They also have a slight +27 edge in total penalty yardage, which is fine but nothing dramatic.

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The truth is, the Giants are winning by consistently exploiting small but meaningful edges. Their coaching has been excellent. Brian Daboll is a rightful frontrunner for Coach of the Year thus far. Week after week, he’s made vital halftime adjustments that have swung games in the Giants’ favor. Big Blue has outscored their opponents 87-49 in second halves. Quarterback Daniel Jones has a done a great job making critical, high-leverage plays despite having mediocre statistics overall. Over the last three games, the Giants have converted a whopping 48.72% of their third downs. Of course, running back Saquon Barkley has provided his share of explosive, game-changing plays as well.

This matchup against Jacksonville represents an opportunity for the Giants to assert themselves as an upper-third team in the NFL. With 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, the Jaguars are supposed to be a team on the rise. They’ve been inconsistent this year, mixing high quality wins with puzzling losses. If Big Blue can win convincingly, it’ll become harder to deny their legitimacy.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

New York: RB Saquon Barkley (Questionable), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Questionable), WR Kadarius Toney (Questionable), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable), OLB Azeez Ojulari (Questionable), OT Andrew Thomas (Questionable), C Jon Feliciano (Questionable), OLB Oshane Ximines (Questionable), CB Jason Pinnock (Questionable)

Jacksonville: WR Marvin Jones (Questionable), CB Shaquill Griffin (Questionable), WR Jamal Agnew (Questionable), DT DaVon Hamilton (Questionable), LB Foyesade Oluokon (Questionable), DT Folorunso Fatukasi (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: WR Christian Kirk vs. CB Darnay Holmes

Jacksonville spared little expense upgrading the talent level around Lawrence last offseason. They spent north of $250 million total in free agency, and perhaps their most notable acquisition was Kirk. The former Arizona Cardinal has never been seen as a top-tier receiver, so it was roundly seen as an overpay when the Jaguars handed him a four-year, $72-million contract. Still, Kirk is a good player, and is acting as Jacksonville’s de facto number-one wideout. He’s garnering over seven targets per game, and has racked up 362 yards and four touchdowns.

Unlike most number-one receivers, however, Kirk operates primarily out of the slot. Unless Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale opts to have his top corner Adoree’ Jackson travel with Kirk, slot cornerback Holmes will see plenty of Kirk on Sunday. Holmes can struggle with man coverage, and has a tendency to commit illegal contact penalties down the field. Martindale will want to help Holmes with double and bracket coverage, or else Kirk could have a big day.

Most Promising Matchup: OT Andrew Thomas vs. OLB Josh Allen

It’s been a while, but the Giants are finally seeing the benefits of elite offensive tackle play. Thomas is on an All-Pro path through six games, having allowed no sacks and just one quarterback hit. The presence of a great pass-protecting tackle is especially valuable when your opponent features a prominent pass rusher.

In Jacksonville’s case, that pass rusher is Allen. The guy taken directly after the Giants selected quarterback Daniel Jones in the 2019 NFL Draft has three sacks and 15 quarterback pressures on the season so far. Even with 2022 first-overall pick Travon Walker now in the fold, Allen is still the straw that stirs the drink in the Jaguars’ front seven. If Thomas can lock Allen up one-on-one, the Giants can open up their offensive playbook knowing their quarterback’s blind side is protected.

Keys to Victory

The Giants have ridden their ground game to a large percentage of their moderate offensive production. They rank fourth in the league in total rushing yards. Jacksonville, however, ranks third in opponents’ rushing yards allowed, so a steady diet of Barkley won’t be a sure recipe for success. Jones and the passing game will have to continue the growth they’ve shown over the last couple of weeks to put enough points on the board. The good news is that Jacksonville ranks 21st in opponents’ passing yards allowed.

Despite the hype around their young quarterback, rushing is the strength of the Jaguars’ offense. They currently rank ninth in total rushing yards. New York’s defense needs to rebound from their poor performance in the run game last week to keep Jacksonville’s running back duo of Travis Etienne and James Robinson in check. As long they pay extra attention to Kirk, the Jags are unlikely to burn the Giants through the air.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 27 – Jaguars 17

At this point, it’s starting to seem foolhardy to pick against these Giants. Talent-wise, there’s not too much seperating these teams, but Big Blue’s resolve and clutchness hasn’t waned all season. Expect this to be a closely contested game before the Giants pull away in the fourth quarter.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.