New England Patriots Game Preview: Defense vs. Chicago Bears’ Offense

The New England Patriots continued their strong play in the 2022 NFL season last week defeating the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH 38 to 15. Don’t be fooled by that score. While New England led 24-6 going into the fourth quarter, Cleveland had cut the lead to 24 to 15 and a two-point conversion could have made it a one-score game before Cleveland imploded.

New England plays on Monday Night Football this week (a boon for us fans of NFL Red Zone who won’t have to switch back and forth during commercials during a Sunday Patriots game). The struggling Chicago Bears come to Gillette Stadium coming off a mini-bye week (they played on Thursday Night Football). 

The game features the Bears dynamic quarterback Justin Fields (picked ahead of Mac Jones) and the return of former Patriots first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. While the offense has struggled, don’t sleep on the Chicago defense. This is a top defense led by linebacker Roquan Smith, a deep group of young and developing pass rushers, and one of the best young safeties in the game in rookie Jaquan Brisker.

Last Week Recap:

The Patriots’ defense again had a strong performance last week as the defense had a coordinated plan to limit the NFL’s top running back Nick Chubb. New England held him to just 56 yards on 12 attempts (all statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted). The defensive line and linebackers stepped up big in the trenches with Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale, Deatrich Wise, Matt Judon, Anfernee Jennings, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Raekwon McMillan all playing stout against the run.

Turnovers were dialed up by the defense again as Kyle Dugger and Jalen Mills both had interceptions. Carl Davis had a fumble recovery as Cleveland quarterback Jacoby Brissett tried to tuck it away (Tuck rule doesn’t exist anymore? What a shame!) and it came loose. Davis, as a karmic reward against one of his prior teams, alertly scooped the ball and rumbled for 17 yards.

The pass defense was on point as Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips were occupied with the tight ends, Jack Jones, Myles Bryant, Marcus Jones, Shaun Wade and Mills had strong games slowing the passing attack. Considering Jonathan Jones was inactive due to the injury and had been the team’s top cover cornerback, this was a much-needed confidence booster for the secondary.

Last week the Bears played on Thursday Night Football and lost their third game in a row after a 2-1 start. Despite carrying a lead into the fourth quarter and rushing for 237 yards, the defense faltered in the fourth quarter as they were outscored 9-0 by the Commanders (ugh, Washington, why did you just not go with the RedHawks. That was such a better choice for a team name!). 

Justin Fields led the way for the Bears passing for 190 yards and rushing for 88 more. Dynamic backup running back Khalil Herbert ripped off a 63-yard run but had just six other carries the entire game. David Montgomery had a respectable 67 yards on 15 attempts. 

The Bears gave up five sacks, however, and a special teams miscue set up Washington’s go-ahead touchdown after Velus Jones muffed a punt with under eight minutes left in the game to give the Commanders the ball inside the 10-yard line. The Bears still had a chance to win but the offense fell just short at the goal line on fourth down.

The positive for Chicago wasn’t the offense but rather the defense which held Carson Wentz to just 99 yards passing and while Washington rushed for 128 yards, it took 28 attempts to get there. The Bears held the Commanders to just two third-down conversions on 11 attempts in the game. 

Patriots Defense vs Opponents’ Offense:

Talking about the Bears’ offense is a painful exercise. Justin Field (aka JF1) is a dynamic young quarterback who has a great arm, fantastic mobility and agility, but is still learning to read defenses. He’s been at his best when the Bears let him use that natural athletic ability getting outside the pocket as a dual threat to the defense.

Chicago’s offense checks in at 31st of 32 NFL teams in scoring points (15.5 per game). However, that is due to the passing game limitations. The center and left side of the offensive line have allowed pressure and the wide receiver group lacks players who can get open consistently. 

Running the football has been the bread-and-butter of the Chicago offense. They are second in rushing yards and average 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Khalil Herbert is the big play threat (6.4 yards per attempt), David Montgomery serves as the lead back and Fields averages 47 yards rushing per game.

The Bears struggle on third down (24th in the NFL) converting just 35.6% of their chances. They’re only two of six on fourth down and had two titanic failures on fourth down in the red zone in their last game against Washington. In the red zone, those issues have popped up all year, as the Bears are 28th in the NFL converting just 7 of 15 trips into touchdowns.

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Three Matchups to Watch:

RBs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert vs Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai

The Bears’ offense goes through the ground game. Add quarterback Justin Fields in this category as well as JF1 has 282 yards rushing through six games. Not just scrambles, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will dial up some designed quarterback runs for the shifty second-year leader.

David Montgomery is the lead back and in five games has 246 yards and a touchdown. After struggling in a monsoon in week one (remember that Bears vs 49ers game in week one?) Montgomery busted out for 122 yards rushing against the Packers. Montgomery got hurt on his third carry of week three and missed the next game. Since returning from injury, he has just 87 yards on 27 carries.

With Montgomery sidelined, 2021 sixth round draft pick Khalil Herbert stepped into the starting role. Herbert went off for 157 yards replacing Montgomery against Houston and followed up with 77 yards on 19 carries the next week. He’s lost carries since, but had an amazing 63-yard run showing his change-of-direction and big play potential.

New England had a great performance on defense last week shutting down the Cleveland Browns’ top-ranking rushing offense. Nick Chubb had just 56 yards on 12 carries and Kareem Hunt had just 12 yards on four carries. That was on the heels of shutting down the Lions holding them to 101 yards.

That was a far cry from the way the Ravens and Packers ran roughshod over the Patriots’ front seven. New England had no answers for Lamar Jackson (hey, who does?) and the two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon for the Pack. They tattooed the Patriots to the tune of 188 yards (Baltimore) and 199 yards (Green Bay) on the ground.

Ja’Whaun Bentley has had to adapt to being the veteran linebacker after Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins (well, he’s back on the practice squad but hasn’t played yet) were shown the door. New England has gotten younger and cheaper at the position. Usually playing just two linebackers and adding a third safety, Bentley has been paired primarily with former Lions second-round draft pick Jehlani Tavai.

A quick search of the @FPC_Patriots twitter account during the Patriots games will make it very clear that I am not his biggest fan (in spite of him seemingly being a very well-liked and respected player in the locker room):

Tavai not even able to shed a block from a wide receiver.

Ugh. pic.twitter.com/i14f1S7nQE

— Full Press Patriots (@FPC_Patriots) October 2, 2022

GET TAVAI OFF THE FIELD!!!

He cannot play defense!#PatriotsNation #NFL #NFLTwitter #NEvsGB #GBvsNE #Patriots

— Full Press Patriots (@FPC_Patriots) October 2, 2022

Well, there’s plenty more there but that gives you a nice sample. Of course, none of these are from the past two games. Much to my surprise and delight, the much-maligned linebacker out of Hawaii has been rock solid and a big part of the improved run defense. After playing just 51 snaps in the first three games, Tavai has been on the field for 55 defensive snaps against Green Bay (75%), 52 snaps versus Detroit (79%) and 44 snaps last week in Cleveland (63%).

Tavai and Bentley are the bigger interior linebackers (compared to Raekwon McMillan and Mack Wilson and are the first line of defense against the run. While the big guys inside do the dirty work, these two linebackers must fly to the ball, shake second-level blocks and make sure tackles.

The success starts with stuffing the run and putting Chicago in third-and-long situations. Bentley and Tavai will be tasked with making those plays.

WRs Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown and Dante Pettis vs Jalen and “the Jones Gang”

The Bears’ passing game is abysmal, but I will make a point to say something positive about their starting receivers: Equanimeous’ first name is better than his brother Amon-Ra’s first name; Darnell Mooney is a number one receiver after being a fifth-round draft pick out of Tulane; Dante Pettis is averaging 27 yards per reception.

OK, back to reality: St. Brown has six catches in six games. Those are N’Keal Harry numbers (look out, N’Keal Harry is the fourth receiver in Chicago–he’ll be on the field Monday night). Mooney has just 17 receptions on 33 targets. That’s just over 50%. Those are N’Keal Harry numbers (OK, just quit this, it wasn’t that funny the first time).  

Finally, Dante Pettis has two touchdowns and a 51-yard reception, but he has five catches in six games. Five catches on 13 targets…that’s less than 50% catch rate (nope, I’m not going to say it again).

The New England pass defense has been phenomenal. This was–according to the so-called “experts”–the weak spot on defense for the Patriots. Moving Jonathan Jones from the slot to the boundary? Jalen Mills as your top corner? A couple of rookie mid-round picks? Shawn Wade and Myles Bryant? 

So the Jones Gang is the nickname I’m trying to start for the secondary. Marcus Jones. Jack Jones. Jonathan Jones. It makes sense, right? Sounds like a bunch of Western bad guys? Well, the only group called the Jones Gang I can find is bunch of washed-up 70s rockers reunited for an album in the mid-2000s. Lots of feathered hair and soft rock going on there.

Well, those questions have been answered. Jonathan Jones has been a revelation on the outside at cornerback. His speed and sticky coverage from the slot has carried over to the edge. Even while missing last week’s game, the defense did not miss a beat. Jalen Mills had his best game last week allowing just three receptions for 25 yards on eight targets.

Rookies Jack Jones and Marcus Jones played well. Jack Jones allowed just two completions for 27 yards on six targets. Jack Jones is a gambler like JC Jackson on the outside–there have been a few times he’s bit and lost his receiver but got bailed out by the pass rush. However, overall he has been fantastic.

Marcus Jones has made his name on special teams with some dynamic kick and punt returns so far in 2022. Last week he played 34 snaps on defense (48%), a huge jump from the week prior (15 snaps). This was after playing just four snaps on defense in the first three weeks. In two weeks, he’s allowed just one completion on five targets.

The Bears wide receivers should not threaten the Patriots’ secondary, but all of the starters have the big-play capability that could put some points on the board in a hurry. The secondary of the Patriots will need to be alert and keep the Chicago passing attack stuck in neutral.

LT Braxton Jones and RT Larry Borom vs EDGEs Deitrich Wise and Matt Judon

The New England Patriots found a stud pass rusher last season by plucking Matt Judon from the Baltimore Ravens in free agency. After amassing 34.5 sacks and two Pro Bowl selections over five years in Baltimore, Judon was back at the Pro Bowl after piling up 12.5 sacks for the Patriots.

Judon tied Chandler Jones (2015), Mike Vrabel (2007) and Andre Tippett (1987) for the third most sacks in a single season for the Patriots behind 1984 and 85 seasons. However, the thought of what could have been lingered. Judon reached 12.5 sacks with four games to play. However, he was shut out down the stretch.

One part of the decline was the extra attention paid to him. Last season, Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise had just three sacks and Kyle Van Noy moved from inside linebacker to the edge to provide any kind of pass rush (five sacks). With Van Noy in Los Angeles with the Chargers, more was needed in 2022.

Dietrich Wise has stepped up. Nearly matching Judon’s production, Wise has five sacks. He has also added six quarterback hits (second to Judon’s 12) and has done an excellent job of providing book-end pressure despite going up against left tackles. 

Behind them, Uche is injured again and missed last week’s game. He had shown some spark this season as a designated third down rusher on the edge before the hamstring injury, providing pressure but no sacks. Last week against the Browns, it was Anfernee Jennings getting a chance and providing significant pressure and getting credited with three quarterback hits and a half sack.

This week, the dynamic pass-rush duo faces off against a pair of Chicago tackles who have actually been better than advertised. Chicago’s interior offensive line (outside of right guard Teven Jenkins) has been a mess and left quarterback Justin Fields running for his life. Center Sam Mustipher and left guard Lucas Patrick have struggled all season as injuries have thrust them into starting roles.

However, the Bears have a pair of late-round draft picks on the edges who have held their own. Rookie left tackle Braxton Jones was a small school tackle out of Utah State who Chicago hit on in the fifth round. Jones is a more advanced run blocker than pass protector so far. He has been better than anticipated pass blocking other than struggles last week with Montez Sweat. However, the powerful bull-rushing of Wise could give him issues Monday night.

The Bears also hit in the fifth round last year snagging right tackle Larry Borom out of Missouri. He can struggle with speed rushers on the outside but has been very consistent for the Bears in 2022. He should see a lot of Judon on Monday night and how he holds up could impact the Bears’ potential to connect on some downfield throws. 

Patriots Score Prediction:

New England 24 – Chicago 19

The Bears have an underrated defense, they’re coming off a mini-bye after having played on Thursday Night Football and they have a very strong rushing attack. As much as most fans are looking at the Monday Night home match-up against Chicago as an easy win, the Bears are going to be a tough team to just brush aside.

I would not be surprised to see the Bears in the lead in the first half and the Patriots taking some time to make some progress against the fast and dynamic Bears’ defense–especially with Mac Jones possibly playing for the first time in three weeks. 

However, I do think the New England defense will rise up and create either a game-changing turnover or a big stop to change momentum. It will probably be ugly, but the Patriots should pull it out in the end.

– Hal Bent has covered the New England Patriots for the past five years at FullPressCoverage.com and can be found at @Halbent01 on Twitter. He also is found manning the @FPC_Patriots account each game day providing game updates, instant analysis, complaining about uncalled holding penalties and calling out Steven Belichick for playing too much zone coverage in crucial situations.