Goal-Line Guide Week 10 is here to help identify likely touchdown production, which can be useful for fantasy football.
The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is there to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.
The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.
Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.
After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often. and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.
Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.
Goal-Line Guide Week 10
|Team||Rushing GLG||Passing GLG||Difference|
|Atlanta Falcons||80.25||73.25||Run + 7|
|Buffalo Bills||76.25||92.75||Pass + 16.5|
|Carolina Panthers||75.75||37||Run + 38.75|
|Chicago Bears||62.75||55.25||Run + 7.5|
|Cleveland Browns||66.25||70.25||Pass + 4|
|Dallas Cowboys||61.5||93||Pass + 31.5|
|Denver Broncos||55.5||43.5||Run + 12|
|Detroit Lions||81.75||83.25||Pass + 1.5|
|Green Bay Packers||54||77.5||Pass + 23.5|
|Houston Texans||45.5||91.5||Pass + 46.5|
|Indianapolis Colts||80.25||56.75||Run + 23.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||62||58||Run + 4|
|Kansas City Chiefs||81||75||Run + 6|
|Las Vegas Raiders||58.75||65.75||Pass + 7|
|Los Angeles Chargers||59.75||62.75||Pass + 3|
|Los Angeles Rams||58.75||63.75||Pass + 5|
|Miami Dolphins||75.75||59.25||Run + 16.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||81.75||85.75||Pass + 4|
|New Orleans Saints||64.5||91||Pass + 26.5|
|New York Giants||73||39.5||Run + 33.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles||63.25||49.75||Run + 13.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||79.5||64.5||Run + 15|
|San Francisco 49ers||60.75||51.75||Run + 9|
|Seattle Seahawks||79.5||80||Pass + 0.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||50||69||Pass + 19|
|Tennessee Titans||63||56||Pass + 7|
|Washington Commanders||33.25||50.25||Pass + 17|
The Biggest Differences
Below are the three teams with the largest discrepancy between their two Goal-Lide Grades.
Ep 161: Lions Dissapoint; NFL MVP; Week 12 Discussion
by Full Press Coverage on November 27, 2023 at 12:12 am
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 45.5
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 91.5
Everything is bigger in Texas. Especially how much higher Houston’s Passing Goal-Line Grade is over their Rushing score. This has been the case all season as the Texans have been very inefficient on the ground inside opponent’s 5-yard line. Houston has only converted touchdowns on 29% of plays. That is one of the factors why the Texans Rushing Goal-Line Grade is one of the 5 worst scores overall this week. As part of the Goal-Line Guide, the defensive matchup is just as important. Looking at the Giants defense, they have allowed more touchdowns on goal-line passes then they have on running plays from that area. In this matchup, everything is lining up for Houston to throw the ball when they get near the end zone.
Even with depleted weapons, Davis Mills is still giving adequate production for a QB 2 in Superflex leagues. This may be one of the better weeks to start him. However, because of the uncertainty at receiver, it may be tough to trust any of his weapons. If Brandin Cooks plays, he would be the only Texans WR I would start. However, if Cooks is inactive, then Chris Moore may be playable.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 75.75
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 37
Without getting too repetitive, I have referenced the Panthers Goal-Line Grades in previous articles. Once again, they have the latest grade difference favoring the run game. However, with a score of only 75.75 in Week 10, Carolina’s passing attack is not in the elite territory. This discrepancy is mostly due to their low Passing Goal-line Grade. At 37, their passing score is the 2nd lowest of the week overall.
My advice most weeks has been to play the Panthers running backs. Right now, it still appears as though D’Onta Foreman is the starter, and thus worthy of being in fantasy football lineups. However, given the questionable QB situation, I would look to bench and Carolina passing game options.
New York Giants
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 73
Passing Goal-Line Grade: 39.5
The 3rd largest Goal-Line Grade disparity in Week 10 belongs to the Giants. Similarly to the Panthers, their rushing score is above average, while their passing grade is one of the worst in the league. The matchup factors heavily into that. While we would not view the Texans as a good team (they are currently the only NFL team with 1 win so far this season), their Goal-Line passing defense is excellent. Houston has only allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 11% of their passing attempts inside their 5-yard line. That is the lowest rate in the entire NFL, ahead of even the great 49ers defense who currently sits with a 17% touchdown surrender rate.
I doubt that you need me to tell you to play Saquon Barkley. However, he may be a good DFS target since I have him ranked as my #1 RB for Week 10. Play Barkley with confidence, even if I can’t say the same thing for any other Giants player. With the team’s Passing Goal-Line Grade is bad, I would still consider Daniel Jones a starter for this week because of the production he brings with his legs.
Highs and Lows
Cowboys Passing Goal-Line Grade: 93
Bills Passing Goal-Line Grade: 92.75
This week, there was a narrow edge for the best overall Goal-Line Grade. The Dallas Cowboys passing score of 93 is just slightly higher than that of the Buffalo Bills at 92.75. For the Cowboys candidates to start, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb both should be in lineups as top 10 options at their respective positions. With other Dallas pass-catchers dealing with injuries, it may be best to monitor practice reports before deciding anyone else’ start/sit status.
Speaking of injuries, the Bills may be dealing with a major one as Josh Allen has an issue with his elbow. Should he miss time and Case Keenum gets the start in Week 10, I would not downgrade their receiving options. Having the 2nd highest overall Goal-Line Grade, look for Buffalo’s arial attack to produce points regardless of who is behind center. The Vikings defense has surrendered the highest TD rate on throws inside their own 5-yard line. As a result, Stefon Diggs is currently my #1 WR on the week, and I intend to keep him there.
Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 33.25
On the surface, playing against the only undefeated team in the league usually makes for a bad matchup. That is the situation the Commanders face by going up against their division rival Eagles. Diving deeper into the data, we find that Washington could have a lot of trouble running against Philadelphia. The Commanders have the lowest overall Goal-Line Grade for Week 10, and a major factor is the impressive defense they are facing. There are only two NFL teams remaining who have yet to allow a rushing touchdown from inside their own 5-yard line, and the Eagles are one of them.
In a situation that favors the passing game, I would prefer to start Antonio Gibson over Brian Robinson. While both are Washington running backs, Gibson is far more involved as a receiver. If there is a week to bench the rookie Robinson, it is now.
Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 10. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.
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