Giants vs. Texans: Preview and Prediction

New York Giants fans couldn’t have asked for a better first half of the season. Big Blue’s Week 9 bye acted as a natural dividing line between the first and second halves of their 2022 campaign. Now, sporting a favorable 6-2 record, New York is set to embark on their final nine games with a playoff berth well within their scope.

The Giants begin their post-bye stretch against the 1-6-1 Houston Texans, who are currently in poll position for the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Houston is clearly a team in rebuilding mode, to whom winning is more of a happy accident than outright goal. New York should be, and is, a decisive favorite in this matchup. And yet, the Giants were thought to be rebuilding heading into this year, too.

These teams’ records may reside on opposite ends of the spectrum, but qualitatively they’re not nearly that far apart. The Texans stack up as 29th in total offense and 30th in total defense, which are, admittedly, pitiful rankings. But the Giants only rank 24th in total offense and 17th in total defense. Better, certainly, but not so much better that a Texans victory would be more than a mild upset.

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The Giants, for their part, don’t care whether they’re favored or not, or if their statistics belie their win-loss record. New York is simply trying to stack up enough wins to earn their first playoff berth since 2016. They’ve already got six, which is a great start, and ten is typically good enough to get into the postseason. That means the Giants need to get at least four more over their remaining nine games.

This matchup against Houston and next week’s against the Detroit Lions represent two especially winnable games before a more difficult post-Thanksgiving stretch loaded with divisional opponents. If Big Blue can take these next to games to get to 8-2, with beatable opponents like the Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Commanders still left on their schedule, they’ll put themselves in prime position to finally get that long awaited playoff spot.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

Houston: WR Brandin Cooks (Questionable), WR Nico Collins (Questionable), OG Justin McCray (Questionable), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable), LB Neville Hewitt (Questionable)

New York: WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable), WR Richie James (Questionable), OLB Oshane Ximines (Questionable), OT Evan Neal (Questionable), CB Cordale Flott (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: OT Laremy Tunsil vs. OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux

As we enter the second half of the season, something to get excited about is the development of rookies. The Giants, for their part, have two rookies taken in the top-10 of the draft that could now begin to blossom after acclimating to the NFL early on. Right tackle Neal is still recovering from a knee injury and will likely miss Sunday’s game, but pass rusher Thibodeaux, taken fifth-overall, will be out there. Thibodeaux has been short on raw production this season, with only one sack and 14 total tackles to his name. Stats don’t tell the whole story for the Oregon product, however. He’s been noticeable turning the corner with speed and leverage and has gotten close to sacks multiple other times.

Unfortunately, Sunday won’t be a good opportunity for Thibodeaux to start filling up the stat sheet. Houston doesn’t have much high-end talent on their roster, but the left tackle Tunsil is truly among the NFL’s best. He’s earned a very strong 86.4 overall grade from Pro Football Focus this year, having given up just one sack all season. Tunsil is the type of in-his-prime veteran that won’t allow a rookie like Thibodeaux to get the better of him. Without pass rusher Azeez Ojulari, who remains on injured reserve, the Giants will have to get creative with blitzes to quickly pressure Texans quarterback Davis Mills.

Most Promising Matchup: DT Dexter Lawrence vs. C Scott Quessenberry

Maybe no Giants player has benefited more from the team’s new coaching staff than Lawrence. The big man is thriving under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Lawrence’s move to full-time nose tackle has allowed him to use his size and strength on early downs and athleticism on passing downs to become a dominant all-situation player. Through eight games, the Clemson product has already matched his career-high in sacks and quarterback hits. With safety Xavier McKinney now on injured reserve after suffering a non-football related hand injury, Lawrence is almost inarguably the most important player on Big Blue’s defense, as he consistently wins at the point of attack.

Lawrence should have a favorable matchup on Sunday. Houston center Quessenberry was a 2018 fifth-round draft choice of the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s in his first season as a full-time starter. He’s earned a very poor 45.4 overall grade from Pro Football Focus this season, and lacks the length and athleticism to handle Lawrence one on one.  Big Dexy should garner double teams on most downs, giving the likes of Leonard Williams and Thibodeaux opportunities to win one-on-one opportunities.

Keys to Victory

The Texans aren’t a team with any real strengths, so the Giants need to focus on playing their game. On offense, that means running the ball effectively, with both tailback Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones, and being efficient and timely in the passing game.

On defense, the Giants need to prioritize stopping rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who’s averaging almost 85 yards per game. Houston’s passing game, led by Mills, isn’t striking fear in any defense. Loading the box and challenging Mills to consistently beat you deep should be a winning strategy.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 24 – Texans 17

Despite their poor record, the Texans aren’t a pushover. They played the Philadelphia Eagles tough last week before fading down the stretch. Houston simply lacks the game-breaking talent capitalize on their efforts. The Giants aren’t exactly an explosive team themselves, but with Barkley and the dual-threat abilities of Jones, they’re still more dangerous than Houston. New York should be fully prepared coming off a bye, so they’ll take a comfortable if not blowout victory.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.