Fantasy Football: Goal-Line Guide Week 11

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As part of a fantasy football series, Goal-Line Guide Week 11 attempts to identify where touchdowns will most likely occur.

The Goal-Line Guide series takes a look at touchdown production from inside the 5-yard line. With an equal emphasis placed on both offensive and defensive efficiency, the goal of the guide is meant to determine which teams are most likely to score touchdowns on a weekly basis, and how they will score. As you will notice in the table below, I divide my Goal-Line Grades into separate Rushing and Passing scores.

The method for which I use to create these Goal-line Grades is as follows. First, I look at each offenses’ touchdown production inside their opponent’s 5-yard line. An important facet is the fact that I split these numbers into rushing and passing touchdowns.

Next, I look at each team’s defenses. Specifically, how often those units allow touchdowns inside their own 5-yard line. Again, this is divided into rushing and passing plays. Then I pair the matchups, with each team’s offense alongside their opponent’s defense for that week.

After that, I add in each offense’s implied total set by the oddsmakers. The logic there is the teams with the highest projected point totals are most likely to be in the red zone more often. and naturally more likely to score more touchdowns.

Finally, next to each team’s grades, I created a column indicating the disparity between each offense’s running and passing scores. I also showcase which phase has the better chance of producing touchdowns. All of those steps combined create the Goal-Line Grades that you are about see.

Goal-Line Guide Week 11

Run, Run, Run

For the first time this season, the Rushing Goal-Line Grade Average is higher than the Passing Grade. While they have come close in the past, Goal-Line Guide Week 11 has an average rushing score of 64.3, while the average passing grade sits at 61.0. There could potentially be more touchdown production available for running backs than usual.

As has been the case over the past few articles, I highlight the biggest differences between an individual team’s Rushing and Passing Goal-Line Grades. The two largest differences this week favor the ground game for the Panthers and the Broncos.

Carolina Panthers

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 77.75

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 29.25

With a Goal-Line Grade differential of 48.5, Carolina’s running attack should be the preferred option for the team inside the 5-yard line. So far this season, the Ravens defense has allowed twice as many goal-line touchdown on the ground (8) as they have through the air (3). From a game-plan stand-point, it would be wise to keep the ball on the ground inside Baltimore’s 5-yard line. That lines up perfectly with how the Panthers have operated in 2022. They remain the only team this season without a passing goal-line touchdown on offense.

This should mean another productive week for D’Onta Foreman, the team’s lead back. However, I am less enthusiastic about Carolina’s arial attack. Aside from D.J. Moore, who I would start from a pure volume point of view, I would look to bench most Panthers’ passing options. At 29.25 the Carolina Passing Goal-Line Grade is the lowest score overall this week.

Denver Broncos

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 84.75 

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 49.75

Immediately behind Carolina’s +48.5 Goal-Line Grade differential are the Broncos. Not only does Denver have the second largest differential of the week, but their Rushing Goal-Line Grade of 84.75 is the 2nd best score overall. One of the main factors behind this elevated grade is the Broncos opponent in the divisional matchup. The Raiders defense has the distinction of allowing the highest touchdown rate on runs inside their own 5-yard. Opposing offenses have completed touchdowns 75% of their rushing attempts near the Las Vegas goal-line.

Now the complicated issue will be determining which Denver running back to play. Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds have all received carries inside the 5-yard line this season and they have all managed to produce touchdown from that area. I would play Gordon and Murray in lineups this week as they are further entrenched in this offense. Edmonds, however, is complicated as he was recently acquired via trade. I would probably keep Edmonds on the bench for now until his role expands with the Broncos.

New York Jets

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 69.25

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 36.75

The team with the largest disparity favoriting their Passing Goal-Line Grade is the Jets. A major factor for that is a league-low 36.75 Rushing Goal-Line Grade, which is also the 3rd worst overall score of the week. No team has been able to score a rushing touchdown inside the Patriots 5-yard line this season. Therefore, if the Jets should be expected to produce any short-yardage scores, they will likely come through the air.

I consider Garrett Wilson to be a strong start as a potential top 20 wide receiver this week. There are not likely many fantasy managers that can afford to bench Wilson with an abundance of alternative options. Meanwhile, looking at the tight end position, the streaming options begin around TE #7 or so. That means, almost half of the tight end 1s (assuming 12 teams) will likely come from unexpected sources. I believe Tyler Conklin has a great opportunity to do so in Week 11. I consider Conklin to be on the upper echelon of streamers.

Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 84.75 

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 107.75

It is remarkable that the Cowboys have a +23 differential in favor of their Passing Goal-Line Grade. After all, their rushing score of 84.75 is tied with the Broncos for the 2nd best grade overall on the week. But that is because the Cowboys passing score is a Week 11 best 107.75. Not only is their goal-line passing offense one of the most efficient in the NFL, but the Vikings defense has the highest rate of touchdown passes allowed inside their own 5-yard line (80%).

As a result, I believe that Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz are in the must-start territory. Especially Lamb who has dominated targets for the Cowboys. Because his role is massive on the team, that has not left much room recently for either Noah Brown or Michael Gallup. I would not consider either a must-bench, but I would be looking for alternatives.

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 11. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.