Giants vs. Lions: Preview and Prediction

Entering this Sunday’s Week 11 matchup against the Detroit Lions, the New York Giants have played themselves into a position that even the most optimistic of preseason projections would’ve deemed pollyanna. But here we are, with Big Blue at 7-2 and just one game back of first place in the NFC. It may, in fact, be pollyanna to think the Giants will blaze through a more difficult second-half of the season and actually attain that number-one seed, but we can excuse fans for not putting anything past this resilient Giants team at this point.

Even a devout Giants sceptic would have to admit this team is now an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs. Putting aside the extravagant dreams of number-one seeds and first-round byes, New York only needs a few more victories to virtually ensure themselves their first playoff berth since 2016. This Sunday’s game against the Lions represents a prime opportunity to snag one of those precious wins. Detroit is one of just two remaining opponents on Big Blue’s schedule with a losing record.

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Unlike the Giants’ previous opponent in the Houston Texans, who are just all-around bad, the Lions are a conspicuously flawed team that can also burn you if they find their game. Detroit’s defect is defense, in all its known forms. They rank 31st in total run defense, with only the aforementioned Texans placing below them. They rank a less bleakly miserable 27th is total pass defense, but they rank dead last in total defense overall.

Offensively, however, is where the Lions can hurt you if you’re not careful. They rank eigth in total rushing, 11th in total passing, and sixth in total offense. It’s worth mentioning that Detroit has come back down to earth after lighting up scoreboards over the first four weeks. Through Week 4, the Lions were averaging 35 points per game. Since then, they’ve averaged 15.8 points per game. While Detroit clearly isn’t the offensive juggernaut they appeared to be in that first month, they’re still dangerous. If they get their running game going behind their young, talented offensive line, they can deploy quarterback Jared Goff in the play-action passing game with which he’s adept.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST

Injuries (Players on Injured Reserve Not Listed)

Detroit: WR Josh Reynolds (Questionable), DE Josh Paschal (Questionable), WR Trinity Benson (Questionable), LB Charles Harris (Questionable), S DeShon Elliott (Questionable), C Frank Ragnow (Questionable)

New York: OT Evan Neal (Questionable), DT Dexter Lawrence (Questionable), S Dane Belton (Questionable), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable), DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Questionable), WR Wan’Dale Robinson (Questionable), OG Joshua Ezeudu (Questionable), OLB Jihad Ward (Questionable), TE Daniel Bellinger (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: C Frank Ragnow vs. DT Dexter Lawrence

The Lions aren’t exactly loaded with talent, so finding a mismatch the Giants’ should be especially concerned with is difficult. Detroit’s strength, though, is their offensive line, as they feature quality starters at all five positions. Ragnow, who’s battling a foot injury but is still expected to play, is one of the best centers in football. The 2018 first-round pick has allowed just one sack and committed just one penalty all season, and has earned a very strong 76.8 grade from Pro Football Focus.

Lawrence has been dominant all season for Big Blue. Part of the reason for his leap has been his move to full-time nose tackle. Center is one of the few positions where teams will often sacrifice some physical ability for know-how and experience. As such, Lawrence has been able to leverage is rare size and athleticism to bully some outmatched centers this season. That won’t be the case on Sunday, as Ragnow is one of the few centers with the strength and anchor to hold up against Lawrence. This isn’t to say Lawrence will play poorly, but don’t expect him to be the game wrecker from last week.

Most Promising Matchup: WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. CB Will Harris

If the Giants’ passing attack ever wants to rise above pedestrian, they’ll need to start getting more out of Robinson. The rookie second-round pick was the current regime’s first major investment at receiver, but he’s yet to be heavily featured in the offense. Robinson appeared poised for a bigger role when he had six catches for 50 yards in Week 7, but he’s only managed two receptions in each of the two games since. New York would love to get Robinson more involved, especially in a receiving corps begging for someone other than Darius Slayton to step up.

Detroit’s porous secondary represents a good opportunity for Robinson to break out. Assuming Robinson plays largely out of the slot, he should see Lions’ slot cornerback Harris on most snaps. Harris is a 2019 third-round pick that played his first two and a half NFL seasons as a safety. Injuries spurred the Lions to switch him to corner partway through last season. Even though the Boston College product has stuck at his new position, he hasn’t exactly thrived. This year, he’s allowing a 72.1 completion percentage and 95.5 quarterback rating when targeted. As long as Robinson is granted some free releases against the bigger Harris, he’ll shake free plenty on Sunday.

Keys to Victory

Offensively, the Giants should be able to do what they want against this lenient Lions defense. At this point in the season, we know what the Giants’ offense wants to do – run the ball steadily with Saquon Barkley and sprinkle in the play-action pass with Daniel Jones. As long as Big Blue doesn’t fall behind by multiple score, they’ll be able to operate their offense as usual.

Defensively, the priority should be stopping the run on early downs so that Lions quarterback Jared Goff is forced into must-pass situations. Goff has seven interceptions and five fumbles on the season, so he can make game-swinging mistakes when pressured. New York’s defensive front won’t win consistently against this talented Lions offensive line, so look for coordinator Wink Martindale to once again dial up plenty of blitzes.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 27 – Lions 19

This has all the makings of a classic “trap game” for the Giants, as a massive Thanksgiving showdown against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys awaits them next Thursday. Somehow, though, you sense this team isn’t taking anything for granted as they inch closer to that long-elusive playoff spot.

Expect this game to play out in much the same way last week’s Texans game did; closer than you’d prefer through three quarters, before Big Blue pulls away late to secure the win.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.